{"id":3077,"date":"2011-07-22T10:16:03","date_gmt":"2011-07-22T07:16:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3077"},"modified":"2011-07-22T10:16:03","modified_gmt":"2011-07-22T07:16:03","slug":"yabancilar-faiz-kararini-nasil-degerlendirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yabancilar-faiz-kararini-nasil-degerlendirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Yabanc\u0131lar Faiz Karar\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l De\u011ferlendirdi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130\u015fte faiz de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyen fakat \u00f6nemli mesajlar veren Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n karar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren \u00fc\u00e7 bankan\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3620358410\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>JP Morgan&#8217;a g\u00f6re; g\u00fcvercin tonlamas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa da Lira&#8217;daki gev\u015femeden endi\u015feli. JP Morgan taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma notundaTCMB&#8217;nin d\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz karar\u0131 ve karar sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar de\u011ferlendirildi.\u00a0TCMB&#8217;nin d\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz karar\u0131 ve karar sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda g\u00fcvercin tonlamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7eken JP Morgan, bir yandan da\u00a0TCMB&#8217;nin\u00a0T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n de\u011ferinde ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften rahats\u0131z oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Morgan&#8217;\u0131n raporunda \u015f\u00f6yle denildi; \u201cgenel beklentilere uygun olarak\u00a0TCMB\u00a0bir haftal\u0131k faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi ve y\u00fczde 6.25 seviyesinde b\u0131rakt\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131n as\u0131l bekledi\u011fi\u00a0TCMB&#8217;nin bu karar ard\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sayfal\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klama idi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamada kullan\u0131lan ton a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde \u00f6ncekilere oranla daha fazla g\u00fcvercin tonlamalar\u0131 i\u00e7erdi. Ayr\u0131ca bankan\u0131n TL&#8217;de ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6zlerini daha fazla kapal\u0131 tutamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.\u00a0TCMB\u00a0uygulamakta oldu\u011fu ortodoks politikalar\u0131n ve bu politikalar\u0131n yerel talep \u00fczerindeki etkileri konusunda daha ikna olmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klama ayr\u0131ca bizim T\u00fcrk otoritelerin Avrupa&#8217;daki bor\u00e7 krizi konusunda endi\u015felerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki de\u011ferlendirmelerimizi de do\u011frulad\u0131. Genel tabloya bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u00a0TCMB&#8217;nin yak\u0131n bir zamanda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 planlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz de destek bulmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>TCMB&#8217;nin temel senaryosunda Avrupa&#8217;ya y\u00f6nelik risklerin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ve kredilerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel al\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu senaryo de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e\u00a0TCMB\u00a0faizler konusunda rahat tutumunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. Bu da kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz faizlere dair beklentimizin de\u011fi\u015fmesine neden olabilir. Bu senaryo alt\u0131nda faizlerdeki art\u0131\u015f beklentimiz y\u0131l sonuna kayabilir. Avrupa&#8217;ya ili\u015fkin sorunlar risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na ve sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na dolay\u0131s\u0131yla TL&#8217;deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>TCMB, TL&#8217;deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizlerini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131da art\u0131r\u0131rsa bu bizim i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 olarak bu sorunlar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve daha ciddi bir hal almas\u0131 ile yerel ekonominin durgunla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde TCMB geni\u015fleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullanacakt\u0131r. Bizim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncemize g\u00f6re TCMB orta vadede ekonomiye y\u00f6nelik risklerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fil a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ancak bu senaryo hakk\u0131nda konu\u015fmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok erken.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>GOLDMAN SACHS<\/strong><br \/>\nTCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu&#8217;nun bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan kararlar\u0131 ve yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren\u00a0Goldman Sachs, TCMB&#8217;nin T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olanlardan \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu\u011funu ve TCMB&#8217;nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama ile resesyonist risklerin geli\u015fimin durumuna kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye y\u00f6nelik olumsuz bir senaryodan bahsetmek i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011funu ifade eden\u00a0Goldman Sachs, ancak TCMB&#8217;nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n riskleri nelerde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.\u00a0Goldman Sachs, TCMB&#8217;nin yak\u0131n bir zamanda her hangi bir \u015fahin ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fini de belirtti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NORDEA<\/strong><br \/>\nTCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu&#8217;nun bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 ve yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren Nordea, son geli\u015fmelerin TCMB&#8217;nin geleneksel olmayan politika kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131na duydu\u011fu g\u00fcveni art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak TCMB&#8217;nin faizlerde ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n tonunda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>TL&#8217;deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u015fu ana kadar enflasyona g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi \u00f6nemsenmeyecek seviyede olmas\u0131, kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri ve artan kredi faizlerinin TCMB&#8217;nin faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesini destekledi\u011fini ifade eden Nordea, Fed, BOE, ECB gibi bankalar\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlarn\u0131n yakla\u015fmas\u0131na, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131na ve zay\u0131f TL&#8217;den gelecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon etkisine ra\u011fmen TCMB&#8217;nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine ilk se\u00e7enek olarak geleneksel olmayan tedbirleri tercih edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2163838390\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>TL&#8217;nin yak\u0131n gelecek zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini vurgulayan Nordea, bu ortamda Euro\/TL paritesi tahminlerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve faiz tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etme niyetinde olduklar\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n<p>kaynak<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomi.haberturk.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/ekonomi.haberturk.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130\u015fte faiz de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyen fakat \u00f6nemli mesajlar veren Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n karar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren \u00fc\u00e7 bankan\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc! JP Morgan&#8217;a g\u00f6re; g\u00fcvercin tonlamas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa da Lira&#8217;daki gev\u015femeden endi\u015feli. JP&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3078,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3077"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3077\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}