{"id":3071,"date":"2011-07-22T10:10:03","date_gmt":"2011-07-22T07:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3071"},"modified":"2011-07-22T10:10:13","modified_gmt":"2011-07-22T07:10:13","slug":"tcmb-ve-harcamayin-soylemi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tcmb-ve-harcamayin-soylemi\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB ve harcamay\u0131n s\u00f6ylemi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu y\u0131l\u0131n birinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n egemen s\u00f6ylemi k\u00fcresel krizin sonland\u0131\u011f\u0131, ulusal ekonomilerin, de\u011fi\u015fen h\u0131zlarda da olsa,\u00a0 krizden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131klar\u0131,\u00a0 i\u015flerin yoluna girdi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. \u0130kinci yar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6ylemi ise daha ilk ad\u0131mda farkl\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi alan\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan geli\u015fmeler beklentilerin neredeyse b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle ters d\u00f6nmesine,\u00a0 d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin yeniden bir krize gidece\u011fi s\u00f6yleminin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-210330637\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu yeni\u00a0 k\u00fcresel kriz s\u00f6yleminin farkl\u0131 ortamlarda de\u011fi\u015fik ama\u00e7larla kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi bir izlenimim var. \u00d6rne\u011fin, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de ekonomi y\u00f6netiminden sorumlu siyasi kadrolar\u0131n yeni kriz s\u00f6ylemini bilerek biraz\u00a0 abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunu toplam talep kontroluna d\u00f6n\u00fck bir politika arac\u0131 gibi kullanmaya niyetlendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Yan\u0131l\u0131yor olabilirim ama ABD ve AB de hen\u00fcz ne y\u00f6ne devinece\u011fi belli olmayan\u00a0 geli\u015fmelerden hareketle b\u00f6ylesine sert bir kriz s\u00f6ylemi \u00fcretilmi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n bende yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenim bu.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde son d\u00f6nemde bir \u0131s\u0131nma olu\u015ftu\u011fu s\u00f6yleniyor. Bunun kayna\u011f\u0131nda harcamalardaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu saptamas\u0131 var.\u00a0 H\u0131zl\u0131 harcama art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 kredilerdeki ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131\u00a0 geni\u015flemenin besledi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sonu\u00e7ta kredi kaynakl\u0131 bir \u0131s\u0131nma oldu\u011fu ve bunun da cari denge bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 u\u00e7 noktalara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu saptamalardan hareketle al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131 eksenini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi\u00a0 biliniyor. \u00d6nceden faiz arac\u0131na yaslanan bir politika izleyen Banka yeni duru\u015funu ara\u00e7 \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan (heterodoks)\u00a0 yeni bir politika d\u00fczlemine kayd\u0131rd\u0131. Ekonomide ko\u015fullar\u0131n olumlu geli\u015fece\u011fi, yerel ya da k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir olumsuzluk ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131 gibi olumlu beklentilerin \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilmi\u015f olmas\u0131 bu yeni politika tasar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n bir ba\u015fka \u00f6zelli\u011fi<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi geldi\u011fimiz noktada kriz beklentisi ta\u015f\u0131yan siyasi s\u00f6ylemlerle Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rece daha sakin duru\u015fu aras\u0131nda bir uyumsuzluk olu\u015fmu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu&#8217;nun d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemliydi. Kendi ad\u0131ma son g\u00fcnlerde siyaset\u00e7ilerin s\u00f6ylemine egemen oldu\u011fu g\u00f6zlenen kriz beklentisi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n durumu nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini ve nas\u0131l bir s\u00f6ylem benimseyece\u011fini fazlas\u0131yla merak ediyordum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2333025895\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Para Politkas\u0131 Kurulunun yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 karar metninden anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m kadar\u0131 ile ekonomiyi y\u00f6neten siyasi kadro ile Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n alg\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark aynen duruyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 hala sakin.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bir s\u00fcredir var olan \u0131s\u0131nma tak\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131ndan hareketle ekonomide harcamalar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, toplam talebin daralt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak baz\u0131 \u00f6nlemler al\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu \u00f6nlemlerin beklenen zaman ve boyutta etkili olmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 da malum. Son g\u00fcnlerde siyasi kadronun\u00a0 \u00fcretti\u011fi g\u00f6n\u00fcllere korku salan yeni s\u00f6ylemin bu ba\u011flamda de\u011ferlendirilmesinin do\u011fru olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomiden sorumlu bakan, k\u00fcresel kriz beklentisinden hareketle, vatanda\u015flar\u0131n ihtiyatl\u0131 davranmasn\u0131, harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smalar\u0131n\u0131 istiyor. Bana kal\u0131rsa sorun k\u00fcresel kriz falan de\u011fil.\u00a0 \u015eimdiye kadar uygulanan politikan\u0131n etki yaratmakta zorlanmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, do\u011frudan insanlara d\u00f6n\u00fcp, kriz korkusu yaratarak beklentilerini bozmak ve bu yoldan harcamalarda ve toplam talepte daralma sa\u011flamak isteniyor gibime geliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2586857974\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu politika manevras\u0131na destek verip vermeyece\u011fini merak ediyordum. PPK karar\u0131 b\u00f6yle bir destek verilmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n\u00a0 mevcut duruma d\u00f6n\u00fck de\u011ferlendirmesi\u00a0 ve kendi beklentisi olumlu. Son d\u00f6nemde Merkeze destek sa\u011flayan yeni \u00f6nlemlerin devreye girmesiyle i\u00e7 talebin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentisini de muhafaza ediyor. Daha ilginci, PPK karar metni\u00a0 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki sorunlar b\u00fcy\u00fcr\u00a0 ve bu nedenle ulusal ekonomide\u00a0 durgunluk e\u011filimi olu\u015fursa t\u00fcm politikalar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015flemeci y\u00f6nde kullanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederek bitiriliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yani Merkez\u00a0 Bankas\u0131 harcama ve talebin istenen d\u00fczeye geriledi\u011fini ve yeni bir harcama k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Siyasi sorumlular da tam tersi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte; harcamalar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131n diyor. Ne yapmam\u0131z gerekiyor? Anlayan beri gelsin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu y\u0131l\u0131n birinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n egemen s\u00f6ylemi k\u00fcresel krizin sonland\u0131\u011f\u0131, ulusal ekonomilerin, de\u011fi\u015fen h\u0131zlarda da olsa,\u00a0 krizden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131klar\u0131,\u00a0 i\u015flerin yoluna girdi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. \u0130kinci yar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6ylemi ise&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3071"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3071\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}