{"id":30687,"date":"2014-01-29T23:26:13","date_gmt":"2014-01-29T21:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=30687"},"modified":"2014-01-30T00:17:24","modified_gmt":"2014-01-29T22:17:24","slug":"faiz-karari-ne-anlatiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/faiz-karari-ne-anlatiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Faiz karar\u0131 ne anlat\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu tahmin edilmeyecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fok bir faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitti. Y\u00fczde 10 ile 15 aras\u0131nda oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 veren, ama ortalama y\u00fczde 12 ile reel faizlerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan radikal bir karar ald\u0131.<\/span>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2643052522\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle bu hareket cesaretten mi \u00e7aresizlikten mi iyi okunmaya muhta\u00e7 bir \u00f6zellik sergiliyor. Normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda t\u00fcm ekonomik dengeleri bozacak, bu t\u00fcr bir faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n borca batm\u0131\u015f vatanda\u015ftan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6re herkesi \u00e7ok olumsuz etkileyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez bu karar\u0131 alarak bug\u00fcne kadar havaya kur\u015fun s\u0131k\u0131p m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi dolar canavar\u0131na, son kur\u015fununu att\u0131. Bu \u2018son\u2019 ifadesini hi\u00e7 ak\u0131ldan \u00e7\u0131karmamak gerekiyor. Havaya a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ate\u015f dolar\u0131 korkutmaya yetmedi. 2,40 s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda da ate\u015f etti.<\/p>\n<p>Burada iki ayr\u0131 foto\u011fraf var. Bunlardan birincisi \u00e7ok \u00e7irkin\u2026 Ba\u015fta Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran ziyareti \u00f6ncesi, karar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra da Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u2018kurnazl\u0131k\u2019 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak tablo engellenemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u2018biz uyard\u0131k, ama Merkez Bankas\u0131 bizi dinlemedi\u2019 diyerek, olu\u015facak faturaya kurban ar\u0131yorlar. \u00c7ok a\u00e7\u0131k ve net s\u00f6ylemek gerekirse, iktidar bu i\u015fin i\u00e7inden s\u0131yr\u0131lamaz.<\/p>\n<p>Ya\u015fanan ve ya\u015fanacak tablodan birinci dereceden sorumludur. \u2018\u00d6zerk\u2019 s\u00f6ylemi de sorumluluktan ka\u00e7mak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan kavramd\u0131r. Yarg\u0131n\u0131n bile Ba\u015fbakan taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirildi\u011fi bir \u00fclkede, kimse Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6zerkli\u011finden bahsetmesin.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim ikinci foto\u011frafa\u2026 Merkez Bankas\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 radikal faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok olumsuz sonu\u00e7lara neden olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyor muydu? \u015e\u00fcphesiz fark\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ama bu denli radikal bir karar bize g\u00f6steriyor ki, kasas\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015ftaki dolarla m\u00fccadele edecek para yok. Yani cephane yetersiz. Bu kararla aleni bir bi\u00e7imde bunu ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi gelelim en kritik soruya: Tek kur\u015funu \u00e7aresizlik i\u00e7inde kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki canavara s\u0131kt\u0131. Muhtemelen hesap \u015fu: Ya \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcr\u00fcm ya da se\u00e7ime kadar yaral\u0131 tutar\u0131m; se\u00e7imi iktidar partisi kazan\u0131r; siyasi risk biter; dolar\u0131n da ate\u015fi s\u00f6ner. Fatura da vatanda\u015fa se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-528523550\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nitekim kur\u015funu atar atarmaz, gece yar\u0131s\u0131 itibariyle dolar h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2,18\u2019e kadar geriledi\u2026 Sabah saatlerinde de durgunluk devam ediyordu; sonra yine g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 2,32 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Demek ki kur\u015fun bo\u015fa gitti ya da \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc bir etki yapmad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Demek ki boyalar daha \u00e7ok d\u00f6k\u00fclecek. Son olarak bir hat\u0131rlatma yapay\u0131m. Tarih: 16 Ocak 2014\u2026 Yat\u0131r\u0131m \u015firketi Barclays yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na tavsiyede bulundu. Dolar tahminimizi 2,35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz. 2,15\u2019ten dolar alman\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6neririz.<\/p>\n<p>O zamanlar 2,15 seviyesi hayaldi. Ama faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2,18\u2019leri g\u00f6rd\u00fc. O zaman soru \u015fu: Kimler dolar ald\u0131? Bu operasyondan kimlerin haberi vard\u0131? Sizce de zamanlamas\u0131 manid\u00e2r de\u011fil mi?<\/p>\n<p>Bir soru dizisi daha ekleyelim: O ak\u015fam toplant\u0131n\u0131n gece saatlerine al\u0131nmas\u0131na ve karar\u0131n geceyar\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131na neden olan yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen \u00fcye kimdi? O \u00fcye hangi \u00fclkeden geldi? Gitti\u011fi \u00fclkede ne t\u00fcr bir ricada bulundu? Ne yan\u0131t ald\u0131 ve ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yan\u0131t \u015fok faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda ne kadar etkili oldu?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1905379022\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcnya k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de\u011fil mi? Duyulmaz zannedilen \u015feyler bile duyuluyor? Umar\u0131m Merkez Bankas\u0131 ya da ekonomi y\u00f6netimi bunun da yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 verir. Yoksa bu ziyaretin de zamanlamas\u0131 \u00e7ok manid\u00e2r.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu tahmin edilmeyecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fok bir faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitti. Y\u00fczde 10 ile 15 aras\u0131nda oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 veren, ama ortalama y\u00fczde 12&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-30687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30687\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}