{"id":30664,"date":"2014-01-29T01:58:54","date_gmt":"2014-01-28T23:58:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=30664"},"modified":"2014-01-29T01:58:54","modified_gmt":"2014-01-28T23:58:54","slug":"uzeyir-dogan-ppk-sonrasi-yorumum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/uzeyir-dogan-ppk-sonrasi-yorumum\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dczeyir Do\u011fan &#8211; PPK Sonras\u0131 Yorumum"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Bu gece al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 \u00f6zetlersek s\u0131ras\u0131yla:<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2165836616\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>1. Merkez Bankas\u0131 Bor\u00e7lanma Faizi %3,5&#8217;ten %8&#8217;e<\/p>\n<p>2. Bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faizi (eski politika) %4,5&#8217;ten %10&#8217;a<\/p>\n<p>3. Piyasa yap\u0131c\u0131 bankalara repo i\u015flemleri yoluyla tan\u0131nan bor\u00e7lanma imkan\u0131 %6,75&#8217;ten 11,5&#8217;e (eski ad\u0131yla faiz koridorun alt\u0131)<\/p>\n<p>4. Marjinal fonlama oran\u0131 %7,75&#8217;ten %12&#8217;ye (eski ad\u0131yla faiz koridorunun \u00fcst\u00fc \/ Marjinal Fonlama Oran\u0131)<\/p>\n<p>5. Ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi bor\u00e7 verme %10,25&#8217;ten 15&#8217;e (Bankalararas\u0131 Para Piyasas\u0131\u2019nda saat 16.00\u201317.00 aras\u0131 gecelik vadede uygulanan Merkez Bankas\u0131 bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131)<\/p>\n<p>y\u00fckseltildi.<\/p>\n<p>6. EPS g\u00fcnlerinde uygulanan %9 civar\u0131nda olan fonama faiz oran\u0131na art\u0131k ihtiya\u00e7 kalmad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2635016149\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>7. Bundan sonra fonlama marjinal fonlama oran\u0131ndan de\u011fil bir haftal\u0131k repo ile yani %10\u2019la yap\u0131lacak. Olursa \u0130stisnai g\u00fcnlerde %12 kullan\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>PPK KARARINDAK\u0130 D\u0130\u011eER \u00d6NEML\u0130 KISIMLAR: <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Son d\u00f6nemlerde i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda risk alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyen geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda belirgin bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve risk priminde kayda de\u011fer bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir. Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu geli\u015fmelerin enflasyon ve makroekonomik istikrar \u00fczerindeki olumsuz yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fczerine d\u00fc\u015feni yapacakt\u0131r. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Kurul, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmaya ve operasyonel \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi sadele\u015ftirmeye karar vermi\u015ftir. Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde belirgin bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecektir. Bu duru\u015f alt\u0131nda enflasyonun 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fczeyine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>KARARIN OLUMLU YANLARI:<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3782056754\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>* \u0130\u00e7 talepteki daralma nedeniyle enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131<\/p>\n<p>* Faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n daha anla\u015f\u0131labilir hale getirilmesi,<\/p>\n<p>* TCMB\u2019nin gerek duyuldu\u011funda elindeki t\u00fcm ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir \u015fekilde kullanabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131,<\/p>\n<p>* TL\u2019de istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanabilmesi i\u00e7in olanak sa\u011flanmas\u0131,<\/p>\n<p>* Siyasi istikrar sa\u011flanabilirse yeni sermaye giri\u015fi i\u00e7in olanak sa\u011flamas\u0131, di\u011fer GOP\u2019lara kar\u015f\u0131 rekabet\u00e7i faizler sunulmas\u0131<\/p>\n<p>* Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n hedeflenen %15 civar\u0131na gerilemesinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131,<\/p>\n<p><strong>OLUMSUZ YANLAR:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>* B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde negatif bask\u0131 (Kurdaki art\u0131\u015f da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni \u00fczerinde negatif etki olu\u015fturuyor ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131l\u0131yordu)<\/p>\n<p>* B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f<\/p>\n<p>* Faize hassas sekt\u00f6rlerde (Banka, Konut, Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 T\u00fcketim v.s.) negatif fiyatlama<\/p>\n<p><strong>SONU\u00c7:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>DOLAR\/TL:<\/strong>\u00a0 Kurlar bir s\u00fcre a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket edecektir. Ancak bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 2,10-1,15 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dengelenmesi beklenebilir. Ard\u0131ndan yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketler olacak olursa daha \u00f6nceki zirve olan 2,39 g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden piyasan\u0131n kendi sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 getirece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu nedenle ilerleyen haftalarda \u00e7ok marjinal bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerde 2,30\u2019lara yak\u0131n yerlerden TL\u2019ye ge\u00e7ilebilir. Bir s\u00fcre 2,10-2,30 band\u0131n\u0131 izleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u0130ST:<\/strong> B\u0130ST taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6zellikle faize hassa sekt\u00f6rler \u00fczerinde olumsuz etki olu\u015facakt\u0131r. K\u0131sa vadede TL\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe dayand\u0131r\u0131lacak B\u0130ST y\u00fckseli\u015flerine temkinli yakla\u015fmak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ancak bir ka\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck konsolidasyonun ard\u0131ndan yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalar izlenmeye ge\u00e7ilecektir. B\u0130ST\u2019in sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ba\u015flatabilmesinin tek \u015fart\u0131 bence yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n olumlu destek vermesidir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ak\u015fam Fed\u2019in alaca\u011f\u0131 karar takip edilmelidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ALTIN:<\/strong> Alt\u0131n\/Gr (TL) dolardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle gerileyecektir. Bu noktada k\u0131sa vadede Ons\/Dolar fiyat\u0131 takip edilmelidir. Ons fiyat\u0131 da 1,250 dolar alt\u0131na sarkacak olur ise gerileme 83-85 TL\/GR\u2019ye kadar devam edebilir. Uzunca bir s\u00fcre 83-93 TL band\u0131ndan dalgalanma izleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu gece al\u0131nan kararlar\u0131 \u00f6zetlersek s\u0131ras\u0131yla: 1. Merkez Bankas\u0131 Bor\u00e7lanma Faizi %3,5&#8217;ten %8&#8217;e 2. Bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faizi (eski politika) %4,5&#8217;ten %10&#8217;a 3.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[808,801,876],"class_list":["post-30664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi","tag-uzeyir-dogan-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30664\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}