{"id":30632,"date":"2014-01-28T08:32:09","date_gmt":"2014-01-28T06:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=30632"},"modified":"2014-01-28T08:49:25","modified_gmt":"2014-01-28T06:49:25","slug":"seans-oncesi-borsa-yorumu-gozler-merkez-bankasinda-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-oncesi-borsa-yorumu-gozler-merkez-bankasinda-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u00d6ncesi Borsa Yorumu \/ G\u00f6zler Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;nda"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>D\u00fcn piyasalar haftaya y\u00fcksek bir stres katsay\u0131s\u0131 ile ba\u015flad\u0131. Sabah saatlerinde dolar\/TL kuru 2.3200 seviyelerinden g\u00fcne ba\u015flad\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k saat 12:10 civar\u0131nda&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1850642792\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-30633\" alt=\"endeks-28-Ocak-2014\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/endeks-28-Ocak-2014.png\" width=\"559\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/endeks-28-Ocak-2014.png 559w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/endeks-28-Ocak-2014-300x211.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn piyasalar haftaya y\u00fcksek bir stres katsay\u0131s\u0131 ile ba\u015flad\u0131. Sabah saatlerinde dolar\/TL kuru 2.3200 seviyelerinden g\u00fcne ba\u015flad\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k saat 12:10 civar\u0131nda, 2.3900 seviyesi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu arada haftaya 64.500 seviyesinden ba\u015flayan BIST-100 endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k bin puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131. Bono piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6sterge faiz 11.17 seviyesinde kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr zamanlarda piyasalar\u0131n bir sonraki hareketi trendin devam\u0131 \u015feklinde olur. Ama olu\u015fan hareketin boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek zordur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131ld\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlar vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn herkesin g\u00f6z\u00fc Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda ve ne yapaca\u011f\u0131 merak ediliyor. \u00c7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u00f6nemli say\u0131labilecek bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lacak. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yan\u0131nda d\u00f6viz swap\u0131 veya d\u00f6viz mevduat munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 gibi di\u011fer para politikas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda da ek \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nabilir. Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bu gece saat 24:00\u2019de \u00f6\u011frenece\u011fiz. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan asl\u0131nda bu t\u00fcr bir hamle beklemiyorduk. Fakat bu toplant\u0131n\u0131n sebebi sadece d\u00f6vizdeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f olmayabilir. E\u011fer Merkez Bankas\u0131 FED\u2019in yar\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da 10 milyar dolar yerine 15 milyar dolar tahvil azalt\u0131m yapaca\u011f\u0131 haberini alm\u0131\u015fsa, ya da bunu \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fse, ya da derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan bir uyar\u0131 gelmi\u015fse ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplant\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 da alm\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerime ve kriz incelemelerime dayanarak \u015f\u00f6yle bir analiz yapabiliriz. E\u011fer sadece 50 veya 100 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131l\u0131rsa veya koridor 7.75\u2019ten t\u00fcm\u00fcyle 9\u2019a \u00e7ekilirse, piyasalarda yine f\u0131rt\u0131nalar eser. D\u00f6vizdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. En az\u0131ndan 200 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131m olmal\u0131, hatta MB kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in piyasaya \u015fok uygulamal\u0131 ve daha fazla yapmal\u0131. Bunun \u015fok i\u00e7in her t\u00fcrl\u00fc gerek\u00e7e mevcut. Faizi indirmek kolayd\u0131r ama art\u0131rmak zordur. \u015eu an i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici olarak faizler art\u0131r\u0131lsa bile, \u015fu anki ortam\u0131 yaratan stres ortadan kalkmaya ve her \u015fey normale d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yeniden indirmeye ba\u015flayabilir. 2006, 2008 ve 2012\u2019de bunu g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sabah dolar\/TL kuru uluslararas\u0131 FX piyasalar\u0131nda 2.2780 seviyelerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. D\u00fcn interbankta 2.2793 seviyesinden kapan\u0131\u015f olmu\u015ftu. Dolar bu seviyelerde kalmaya devam ederse BIST-100\u2019\u00fcn g\u00fcne y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 65 bin \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. Bu sabah d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda da olumlu bir hava var. BIST-100 endeksi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 67 bin seviyesinde bulunuyor.66.500 seviyelerine gelirse, bir miktar k\u00e2r realize edip nakde ge\u00e7ip karar\u0131 beklemekte fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn MB\u2019ndan a\u00e7\u0131klama gelene kadarki s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u00f6sterge faiz 11.18 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckseldi. MB\u2019n\u0131n ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc PPK a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6sterge faiz 10.70 seviyesine kadar indi ve 10.87\u2019den kapand\u0131. Bug\u00fcn saat 24:00\u2019deki MB PPK karar\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Karar\u0131n piyasalar \u00fczerindeki etkisini yar\u0131n g\u00f6rece\u011fiz ama bug\u00fcn g\u00f6sterge faizin yeniden 10.40-10.70 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gerilemesini bekleyebiliriz. Bono piyasas\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacim nedeniyle g\u00f6sterge faizi sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 yorumlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn piyasalar haftaya y\u00fcksek bir stres katsay\u0131s\u0131 ile ba\u015flad\u0131. Sabah saatlerinde dolar\/TL kuru 2.3200 seviyelerinden g\u00fcne ba\u015flad\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k saat 12:10 civar\u0131nda&#8230; D\u00fcn piyasalar haftaya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[769,715],"class_list":["post-30632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-borsa-yorumlari-gunluk","tag-yasar-erdinc-yazilari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30632\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}