{"id":30404,"date":"2014-01-21T22:50:44","date_gmt":"2014-01-21T20:50:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=30404"},"modified":"2014-01-21T23:49:20","modified_gmt":"2014-01-21T21:49:20","slug":"merkez-biz-inandik-siz-de-inanin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-biz-inandik-siz-de-inanin\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7etin \u00dcnsalan &#8211; Merkez: Biz inand\u0131k; siz de inan\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em;\">Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Fakat bununla birlikte para s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan ve bankalararas\u0131 piyasadaki y\u00fczde 7,75 olan faizlerin, y\u00fczde 9 seviyesine kadar zaman zaman \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/span>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2460514335\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca enflasyonun da y\u00fczde 5\u2019lerin \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini belirtti. Ama oran vermedi. Yani 5 rakam\u0131n\u0131 psikolojik seviye olarak sundu. Peki Merkez faiz artt\u0131rmal\u0131 m\u0131yd\u0131, niye artt\u0131rmad\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Burada okunmas\u0131 gereken iki foto\u011fraf var. Bunlardan birincisi Merkez Bankas\u0131 da, t\u0131pk\u0131 Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 gibi, ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerin konjonkt\u00fcrel ve ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funa dair inan\u00e7 sergiliyor. Yani diyor ki, bu sorun a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcm g\u00f6stergeler eski seviyesine d\u00f6necek.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat siyasi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 bitse bile, ekonomik geli\u015fmeler bunun b\u00f6yle olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Daha ac\u0131s\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131, t\u0131pk\u0131 Ba\u015fkan Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 1,92 kur a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu kadar\u00a0 samimi\u2026 \u00a0Yani ger\u00e7e\u011fin bu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin finansman yap\u0131s\u0131 ve ekonomik modeli kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funun fark\u0131nda\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Resimdeki ikinci fakt\u00f6r ise sunulan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasadaki reel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131\u2026 Bug\u00fcn piyasada reel faiz oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 9-11 band\u0131nda geziniyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 25 veya 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f hi\u00e7bir soruna \u00e7are olmayacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez\u2019in olaya direkt m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi bir faiz, reel piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131ksayd\u0131 bir anlam ifade edebilirdi. Fakat bunun da bor\u00e7lu reel sekt\u00f6r ve di\u011fer ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yarataca\u011f\u0131 problemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacakt\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu haliyle dolar\u0131 tutabilir mi? K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli gev\u015femeler ve TL baz\u0131nda de\u011ferlenmeler olsa bile, kal\u0131c\u0131 anlamda tutmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor. Birinci neden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in, yani faiz silah\u0131n\u0131 kullanmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok ge\u00e7 kald\u0131. Dolar\u0131n ilk y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde s\u0131k\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f ve faiz resti, ge\u00e7ici de olsa nefes ald\u0131rabilirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat yine alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorum bu da kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7 getirmezdi. Sadece iktidara faturay\u0131 se\u00e7im sonras\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131ma olana\u011f\u0131 sunard\u0131. D\u00f6vize m\u00fcdahale edebilir miydi? Ne yaz\u0131k ki anl\u0131 \u015fanl\u0131 g\u00f6sterilen d\u00f6viz rezervi, ger\u00e7ek anlamda iki ayl\u0131k ithalat\u0131 finance edebilecek boyutta. Yani neredeyse yok\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4219371108\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bunu da havaya ate\u015f a\u00e7arak, yetersiz miktarda sat\u0131\u015flarla sa\u011fa sola sa\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, eldeki varl\u0131k daha da azald\u0131. Bu nedenle kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi de yap\u0131lam\u0131yor. T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 alt alta koydu\u011funuzda Kurul\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kan karar do\u011frudur.<\/p>\n<p>Ger\u00e7ek bir art\u0131r\u0131m yapmayacaksan\u0131z; g\u00f6stermelik m\u00fcdahaleler i\u015fe yaramaz. Ger\u00e7ek bir art\u0131\u015f da, ekonomideki boyalar\u0131n erken d\u00f6k\u00fclmesine neden olur. Merkez\u2019in elinde tek bir silah kald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018Biz inand\u0131k, siz de inan\u0131n.\u2019 \u00d6zetle elimizde yeterli silah yoksa, eldeki silahlar da sava\u015fmaya yetmekten uzaksa, s\u00f6ylemle psikoloji y\u00f6netmeye ve ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ekonomi palavras\u0131 konusunda ikna \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye mecbur olduklar\u0131n\u0131 hissediyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Daha da ac\u0131t\u0131c\u0131 olan, insanlar\u0131n inanmas\u0131n\u0131 istediklerine kendilerini inanm\u0131yorlar. D\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnya, yabanc\u0131 finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar her \u015feyin fark\u0131nda\u2026 Onlar\u0131 aldatamayacaklar\u0131na gore, i\u00e7teki yerel \u00fcretici ile vatanda\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerine gidiyorlar.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1422263374\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Diyorlar ki 17 Aral\u0131k olmasayd\u0131, bunlar olmayacakt\u0131. Bardaktaki suyun ta\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu mu? Evet, oldu\u2026 Ama gerek\u00e7enin bu oldu\u011fu da, t\u0131pk\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ekonomi s\u00f6ylemi gibi koca bir palavrad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomilerde kriz anayasa kitap\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya birilerine operasyon d\u00fczenlendi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131kmaz. Yanl\u0131\u015f politika uygulam\u0131\u015fs\u0131n\u0131zd\u0131r; ko\u015fullar da art\u0131k onu beslemiyordur; bunlar sadece bahane olur. \u0130\u015fin \u00f6zeti iki kelimede gizli. Beceremediniz ve kand\u0131rd\u0131n\u0131z. Yeter art\u0131k. Sorunu kabul edin de, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm konu\u015fmaya ba\u015flayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Fakat bununla birlikte para s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan ve bankalararas\u0131 piyasadaki y\u00fczde 7,75 olan faizlerin, y\u00fczde 9 seviyesine kadar zaman&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[904,808,801],"class_list":["post-30404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar","tag-cetin-unsalan-yazilari","tag-ekonomi-makaleleri","tag-ekonomi-yazarlari-listesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30404","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30404"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30404\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}