{"id":3027,"date":"2011-07-21T10:16:49","date_gmt":"2011-07-21T07:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=3027"},"modified":"2011-07-21T10:17:02","modified_gmt":"2011-07-21T07:17:02","slug":"imf%e2%80%99nin-tahminleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/imf%e2%80%99nin-tahminleri\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF\u2019nin Tahminleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc bilgisayar\u0131m\u0131n veri \u00e7ekerken kilitlenmesi sunucunda yaz\u0131m\u0131 yollayamad\u0131m. Makinalara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k bu noktaya geldi. Elle yazmay\u0131 unuttuk. Okuyucular\u0131mdan \u00f6z\u00fcr diliyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3369125433\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>IMF\u2019in yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0<span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0bir rapor medyaya yans\u0131d\u0131. G-20 toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f. K\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcre bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zetliyor. Yeni bilgi ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yor. Bilinen k\u00fcresel sorunlara odaklan\u0131yor. Geciken d\u00fczeltmeye, biriken risklere ve politika opsiyonlara i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Raporun sonunda IMF\u2019nin d\u00f6rt y\u0131l i\u00e7in (2011-14) b\u00fcy\u00fcme-d\u0131\u015f denge ve iki y\u0131l i\u00e7in (2011-12) enflasyon-b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi tahminleri yer al\u0131yor. G-20 \u00fcyesi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in\u00a0<span><strong>T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong><\/span>\u2019yi de kaps\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi kamuoyunda ses getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Say\u0131lardan IMF\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in nas\u0131l bir konjonkt\u00fcr \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc anl\u0131yoruz. IMF\u2019nin analiz ve politika \u00f6nerilerini pek sevmedi\u011fim biliniyor. Bu tahminlerine de kat\u0131lm\u0131yorum. Gene de tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 derinle\u015ftirmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yararl\u0131 buldum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2011\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2011\u2019de ekonomide s\u00fcrprizler bekledi\u011fimi y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda belirtmi\u015ftim. Nitekim 17 y\u0131ld\u0131r ilk kez y\u0131ll\u0131k tahminlerimi vermedim. Konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc ne y\u00f6nde gidece\u011fini kestirmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6yledim. Hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ile ba\u015flayal\u0131m. IMF y\u00fczde 8.7 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2010\u2019un rekor b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine adeta e\u015fittir. Y\u00fczde 5-6 d\u00fczeyinde kalan\u00a0<span><strong>genel<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0beklentinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerindedir. T\u00fcrkiye \u00c7in\u2019in ard\u0131ndan G-20 ikincisi oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyonla devam edelim. IMF y\u00fczde 5.5 diyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de beklentilerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u00fczde 7-8 aras\u0131nda dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Yani IMF enflasyon cephesinde bir sorun g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1706406823\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fct\u00e7eye d\u00f6nelim. IMF b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131na y\u00fczde 1.9 hesapl\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye G-20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131 uygulayanlar aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim en \u00e7ok g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcye yol a\u00e7an d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa. S\u0131k\u0131 durun; IMF milli gelirin y\u00fczde 10.5\u2019una t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Buna g\u00f6re cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 80 milyar dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7iyor. Beni \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmad\u0131. Alt\u0131 ay \u00f6nceden uyarm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2012\u2019de sert ini\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re mevcut konjonkt\u00fcr 2012\u2019de k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019e geriliyor. Son \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa eksi b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. K\u0131sa bir resesyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Yani IMF T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde sert ini\u015f bekliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1372168990\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu noktada di\u011fer g\u00f6stergeler \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Enflasyon 1 puan y\u00fckseliyor: y\u00fczde 6.5. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor: y\u00fczde 1.6. En ilginci d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 \u00e7ok az iniyor: y\u00fczde 9.8.<\/p>\n<p>Sorular\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 duyar gibiyim. Resesyona ra\u011fmen enflasyon art\u0131yor, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131yor ama d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Neden b\u00f6yle oluyor? Bilmecenin s\u0131rr\u0131 IMF\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iktisat politikalar\u0131nda yat\u0131yor. Fevkalade \u00f6nemlidir; analizi bir ba\u015fka yaz\u0131ya kald\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc bilgisayar\u0131m\u0131n veri \u00e7ekerken kilitlenmesi sunucunda yaz\u0131m\u0131 yollayamad\u0131m. Makinalara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k bu noktaya geldi. Elle yazmay\u0131 unuttuk. Okuyucular\u0131mdan \u00f6z\u00fcr diliyorum. IMF\u2019in yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0yeni\u00a0bir rapor medyaya yans\u0131d\u0131.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}