{"id":2977,"date":"2011-07-20T09:39:16","date_gmt":"2011-07-20T06:39:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2977"},"modified":"2011-07-20T09:40:49","modified_gmt":"2011-07-20T06:40:49","slug":"hizli-yurtici-talep-artisi-ve-yuksek-cari-acik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hizli-yurtici-talep-artisi-ve-yuksek-cari-acik\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u0131zl\u0131 yurti\u00e7i talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomimiz, 2008&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren her \u00e7eyrek potansiyeline yak\u0131n bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcseydi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH), \u015fu andaki GSYH de\u011ferinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde olacakt\u0131. \u0130ki hafta \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131mda bu noktaya dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015f ve &#8220;Ger\u00e7ekten potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 4.7 ise, potansiyelimizin hala alt\u0131nda olmam\u0131za kar\u015f\u0131n neden bu kadar cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriyoruz?&#8221; diye sormu\u015ftum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1672884437\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dikkatli okuyucular\u0131m\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnden ka\u00e7mam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r: Bu t\u00fcr bir hesaplama, 2008&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonomimizin potansiyelinde oldu\u011funu \u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6rt\u00fck bi\u00e7imde varsay\u0131yor.\u00a0 Bu varsay\u0131m\u0131 yapmay\u0131p, GSYH&#8217;nin \u015fu andaki de\u011feri ile uzun d\u00f6nemli e\u011filimi kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GSYH&#8217;nin az da olsa e\u011filiminin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu belirleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim \u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6rt\u00fck varsay\u0131mdan yola \u00e7\u0131karak, k\u00fcresel krizden sonra potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131zda bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak gerekti\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftim. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi uzun bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma konusu. K\u00fcresel kriz ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131 bu h\u0131z\u0131? Belki de ilk a\u015f\u0131nma &#8216;yarat\u0131c\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m&#8217; ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi, daha rekabet edebilenler ayakta kald\u0131 ve potansiyelimiz artma s\u00fcrecine girdi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ikinci olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck buluyorum. Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, teknoloji d\u00fczeyimizdeki, sermaye stokumuzdaki ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn beceri-e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyindeki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n, y\u00fczde 4.5-5 potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki art\u0131\u015flara k\u0131yasla daha fazla olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu da kendili\u011finden olacak bir \u015fey de\u011fil; bu alanlarda son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda bizi eski performans\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karacak bir yap\u0131sal reform yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlam\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk olas\u0131l\u0131k ge\u00e7erli olsa da, yani potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, GSYH d\u00fczeyinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 potansiyel GSYH d\u00fczeyinin alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verebilece\u011fimizin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek istiyorum bug\u00fcn. Anahtar yurti\u00e7i talep kavram\u0131nda sakl\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Yurti\u00e7i talep, \u00f6zel ve kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ile \u00f6zel ve kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131. \u00dcretmeyip bu talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ithal etti\u011finiz mallar\u0131 kaps\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u00fcretip ihra\u00e7 etti\u011finiz mallar\u0131 kapsam\u0131yor. Bu nedenle,\u00a0 GSYH&#8217;ye (yurti\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen mallara olan talebe) ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in yurti\u00e7i talepten ithalat\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p, ihracat\u0131 ekliyoruz. Her iki de\u011fi\u015fkenin 2007&#8217;nin son \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana hareketlerini Grafik 1&#8217;de g\u00f6steriyorum. Son iki \u00e7eyrekte yurti\u00e7i talep ile GSYH aras\u0131ndaki farkta belirgin bir a\u00e7\u0131lma var.<\/p>\n<p>Yurti\u00e7i talepteki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f ithalat\u0131 da h\u0131zla art\u0131r\u0131yor; cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Grafik 1, yurti\u00e7i talebin potansiyelinin \u00fczerinde olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bir fikir vermiyor. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bir yorum yapabilmek i\u00e7in uzun d\u00f6nemli e\u011filiminden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yurti\u00e7i talep de\u011fi\u015fkenine de bakmak yararl\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n<p>&#8216;Uzun d\u00f6nemli e\u011filim&#8217; g\u00f6zlemedi\u011fimiz bir de\u011fi\u015fken; tahmin ediyoruz. Kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tahmin y\u00f6ntemine g\u00f6re buldu\u011fumuz sonu\u00e7lar de\u011fi\u015febilir. Bu nedenle, birka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 y\u00f6ntem kullanarak bu e\u011filimi hesaplad\u0131m; sonu\u00e7lar dikkate de\u011fer bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Grafik 2&#8217;de uygulamada en \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan y\u00f6ntem ile elde etti\u011fim e\u011filimi (potansiyel yurti\u00e7i talep olarak kabul edilebilir) veriyorum. Ayr\u0131ca mevsimlik hareketlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yurti\u00e7i talep de\u011fi\u015fkeninin hareketleri de ayn\u0131 grafikte yer al\u0131yor. A\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde son iki \u00e7eyrekte yurti\u00e7i talebin d\u00fczeyinin potansiyelinin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu belirleniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-589842431\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Grafik 3&#8217;te ise bu iki de\u011fi\u015fken aras\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde fark\u0131n geli\u015fimi g\u00f6steriliyor. Art\u0131 de\u011ferler, yurti\u00e7i talebin potansiyelinin \u00fczerinde, eksi de\u011ferler ise alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ifade ediyorlar. \u00d6zellikle son \u00e7eyrekte yurti\u00e7i talebin uzun d\u00f6nemli e\u011filiminin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini vurgulamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Grafik 1. GSYH ve yurti\u00e7i talebin hareketleri: 2007\u00c74-2011\u00c71 (2008\u00c71=100, mevsimlik hareketlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler). Kaynak: T\u00dc\u0130K verilerinden hesapland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: small;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/pics\/ozataytablo1.jpg\" alt=\"\" align=\"baseline\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"0\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomimiz, 2008&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren her \u00e7eyrek potansiyeline yak\u0131n bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcseydi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH), \u015fu andaki GSYH de\u011ferinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2977\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}