{"id":2934,"date":"2011-07-19T11:46:20","date_gmt":"2011-07-19T08:46:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2934"},"modified":"2011-07-19T12:43:54","modified_gmt":"2011-07-19T09:43:54","slug":"seans-icinden-19-temmuz-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-icinden-19-temmuz-2011\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u0130\u00e7inden &#8211; 19 temmuz 2011"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>11:45<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-682702013\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcn ABD borsalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra ba\u015flayan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften etkilenen endeks d\u00fcn 62 binin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131 ama bug\u00fcn yeniden 62 bin \u00fczerinde hareket ediyor. \u00a0D\u00fcn asl\u0131nda daha pozitif bir borsa hareketi bekliyordum fakat, 21 Temmuz&#8217;daki AB liderler toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere bu toplant\u0131da Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n bor\u00e7 sorununun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc konusunda kararlar al\u0131nacak. D\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131 strese sokan en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r, bor\u00e7 sorununun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde bor\u00e7 verenlerin (\u00f6zel kesimin) bu sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne yapaca\u011f\u0131 katk\u0131yd\u0131. Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z daha \u00f6nce bu konunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc a\u015famas\u0131nda g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcl\u00fck esas\u0131 baz al\u0131nacakt\u0131. \u015eimdi ise Merkel, kendi vatanda\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 mah\u00e7up olmamak i\u00e7in illaki \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00a0As\u0131l mesele nedir?<\/p>\n<p>As\u0131l mesele \u015fudur, Yunanistan bor\u00e7lar\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken, \u00a0belirli bir faiz \u00fczerinden \u00a0vade uzat\u0131lacak. Fakat bunu kabul etmeyen \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6re nas\u0131l bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerilecek? Gidin piyasada ellerinizdeki ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131 zat\u0131n m\u0131 denilecek, yoksa, art\u0131k ellerinizdeki ka\u011f\u0131tlar 30 y\u0131l badeli oldu ve y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri de y\u00fczde 4 m\u00fc denilecek? Hangisi s\u00f6ylenirse s\u00f6ylensin, bu durum di\u011fer bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkelere de bir yol haritas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliyor musunuz? Yunanistan ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 ellerinde bulunduranlara bir anda ceza kesilmi\u015f ve vadeler 30 y\u0131la \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken getiriler de y\u00fczde 4&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Tabi ki b\u00f6yle bir \u015fey olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemiyorum ama vurgulamak istedi\u011fim nokta, elinde Yunan tahvilleri olanlar\u0131n yiyece\u011fi kaz\u0131\u011f\u0131n boyutudur. Durum b\u00f6yle olunca, ellerinde \u0130spanyol, Portekiz ve hatta \u0130talyan ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yanlar acaba ne yaparlar? kaz\u0131\u011f\u0131n boyutu ne olursa olsun, kaz\u0131k kaz\u0131kt\u0131r. Kimse &#8220;k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kaz\u0131kt\u0131r bari buna raz\u0131 olay\u0131m&#8221; demez. \u00a0Ne yapar? tabi ki elinde bulunan ve bunlardan dolay\u0131 kaz\u0131k yiyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131 satar. \u0130\u015fte d\u00fcn tahvil ve bono piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran temel fakt\u00f6r buydu. \u0130talyan, \u0130spanyol CDS&#8217;leri tarihi rekorlar k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>21 temmuz&#8217;da Avrupa&#8217;l\u0131 liderlerden ne \u00e7\u0131kacak? nas\u0131l bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunacak? bence bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm sunulacak ama bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmm\u00fc\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcp kimse \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn tam anlam\u0131yla ne anlama geldi\u011fini de anlamayacak. AB liderlerinin kafalar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131na da yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn DAX endeksi d\u00fcne g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.57 yukar\u0131da. Ayr\u0131ca Dow future&#8217;lar\u0131 da y\u00fczde 0.63 yukar\u0131da bulunuyor. \u0130spanya&#8217;n\u0131n bug\u00fcn tahvil ihaleleri vard\u0131 ve ortalamada \u00fc\u00e7 kat talep gelince Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n bor\u00e7 sorunlu \u00fclkelerinin CDS faizleri d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu da borsalar\u0131 olumlu etkiliyor. Bor\u00e7 sorununun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc konusunda bug\u00fcn piyasa biraz daha iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fakat bu iyimserlik per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ncesinde bir miktar k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fe de d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir. Bu y\u00fczden piyasalarda belirli bir kanalda dalgal\u0131 hareketlerin devam\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn Goldman Sachs&#8217;dan bir haber vard\u0131. Bu \u015firket T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi pek sevmiyor herhalde. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da banka de\u011ferlendirmesi yer al\u0131yor. Bu arada CITI Grup , JP Morgan ve Morgan Stanley&#8217;in T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in tavsiyesini y\u00fckseltti\u011fini de vurgulayal\u0131m. Bizim i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan \u015fu an en \u00e7ok vurgulanan sorun Cari a\u00e7\u0131k oluyor. Fakat \u015fu anki \u015fartlar devam ederse cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan bir miktar gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan kredi verileri, kredilerde zay\u0131flama oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi ama bunun mevsimsel etkilerden de kaynaklanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi ve en az 3-4 hafta daha bu verilerin izlenmesi gerekti\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor. Borsa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan endeksin 62 bin \u00fczerinde kalarak, bu haftay\u0131 62.500-64.500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kapatmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. Fakat AB zirvesinden e\u011fer sonu\u00e7suzluk \u00e7\u0131karsa tabi ki ortal\u0131k toz duman olur. Bu y\u00fczden e\u011fer AB zirvesinden sorun \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsan\u0131z sat\u0131p beklemekte fayda var. Fakat &#8220;nas\u0131l olsa halletmek zorundad\u0131rlar&#8221; diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsan\u0131z beklemekte fayda var. Bana sorarsan\u0131z, k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7ok fazla sorun yaratacak kararlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lacakt\u0131r diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>GOLDMAN SACHS:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4182281121\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00dcRK BANKALARININ KARLARI 2. \u00c7EYREKTE GER\u0130LEYECEK, BEL\u0130RS\u0130Z MAKRO ORTAM YEN\u0130DEN NOTLANDIRMAYI ENGELL\u0130YOR-<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2011 2. \u00e7eyrek mali sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klayacaklar\u0131n\u0131, BDDK&#8217;n\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriler\u00a0dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2. \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n net karlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere\u00a0i\u015faret edece\u011finin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi.\u00a0Garanti, Akbank, \u0130\u015fbankas\u0131 ve YKB taraf\u0131ndan \u015fu ana kadar sunulan\u00a0verilerin karlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n artan fonlama maliyetleri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u00a0faaliyet marjlar\u0131 ve zay\u0131f har\u00e7 geliri yarat\u0131m\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ifade eden Goldman Sachs, bunun beklentileri ile\u00a0paralel oldu\u011funu da vurgulad\u0131.\u00a0T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlemelerinin g\u00f6receli olarak \u00e7ekici\u00a0olmamaya devam etti\u011fini, banka de\u011ferlemelerinin zorlu bir karl\u0131l\u0131k\u00a0g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirten Goldman Sachs, bu ortamda T\u00fcrk\u00a0bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in ihtiyatl\u0131 olmaya devam ettiklerini, cari \u00e7arpanlar\u0131n\u00a0makro dinakimlerde potansiyel oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0fark\u0131nda olduklar\u0131n\u0131 da ifade etti.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs, Akbank ve \u0130\u015f Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n CEEMEA Odak Sat\u0131\u015f Listesi&#8217;nde\u00a0yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in en iyi &#8216;sat\u0131\u015f&#8217; fikirlerini\u00a0sundu\u011funu da vurgulad\u0131.\u00a0Goldman Sachs&#8217;\u0131n T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in tavsiyeleri ve 12 ay fiyat<\/p>\n<p>hedefleri \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3434134909\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;HALKB \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 YKBNK \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0VAKFN \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 GARAN \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0ISCTR \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0AKBNK<\/p>\n<p>NOT \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 N\u00f6tr \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sat \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Sat \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sat \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Sat \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sat<\/p>\n<p>Fiyat Hedefi \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 14.36 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04 .24 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a03.48 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a06.59 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04.26 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 5.50<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn ba\u015fka yorum veremeyece\u011fim&#8230; \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130stanbul&#8217;a yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor olaca\u011f\u0131m&#8230; Sa\u011fl\u0131cakla kal\u0131n\u0131z&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>11:45 D\u00fcn ABD borsalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra ba\u015flayan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften etkilenen endeks d\u00fcn 62 binin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131 ama bug\u00fcn yeniden 62 bin \u00fczerinde hareket ediyor. \u00a0D\u00fcn&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":2500,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2934"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2934\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2500"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}