{"id":2918,"date":"2011-07-19T09:46:48","date_gmt":"2011-07-19T06:46:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2918"},"modified":"2011-07-19T09:47:09","modified_gmt":"2011-07-19T06:47:09","slug":"buyumenin-buyusu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyumenin-buyusu\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin B\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fcne kat\u0131lmak bazen sanc\u0131l\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar getirebilir. Bazen ger\u00e7ekleri g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rmaya ba\u015flars\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2234155104\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde d\u00f6rt \u00f6nemli veri seti pe\u015f pe\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 11 oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu oran d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekteki en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131. Bu, \u00e7ok olumlu bir geli\u015fmeydi. Ard\u0131ndan cari a\u00e7\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131, bir ba\u015fka d\u00fcnya birincili\u011fi de oradan geldi. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olan cari a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fi ilkinin tam tersine olumsuz bir geli\u015fmeydi. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde y\u0131llard\u0131r ya kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z art\u0131yor ya da cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z. Demek ki bizim b\u00fcy\u00fcmemiz ya kamu kesiminin ya da \u00f6zel kesimin tasarruflardan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 harcamas\u0131yla olu\u015fuyor ve sonucunda da ya b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da cari a\u00e7\u0131k yarat\u0131yor.<br \/>\nBu iki \u00f6nemli veri setinin ard\u0131ndan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131 itibariyle y\u00fczde 9,9\u2019a geriledi\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 11\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yerde i\u015fsizlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 beklenen bir geli\u015fmeydi ama yine de bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerileme beklenmiyordu. Bunu da olumlu geli\u015fmeler hanesine yazd\u0131k. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131nca kamu mali disiplininin son derecede s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011fu meydana \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e 2,9 milyar TL fazla verdi. Faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla ise 25,3 milyar TL\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu da son derecede olumlu bir geli\u015fme.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Anahtar b\u00fcy\u00fcmede\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme bak\u0131nca \u015funlar\u0131 s\u0131ralamak ge\u00e7iyor akl\u0131mdan: Enflasyon al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kal\u0131plara g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gidiyor, ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde faizler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor. Faizler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olunca krediler art\u0131yor, mevduatta para tutmak, yani tasarruf etmek g\u00fcndem d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu durumda harcamalar art\u0131yor, i\u00e7 talep y\u00fckseliyor. \u0130\u00e7 talep y\u00fckselince \u00fcretim art\u0131yor, ekonomi daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomi daha \u00e7ok i\u015f imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor, i\u015fsizlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zland\u0131k\u00e7a ithalat art\u0131yor, cari a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fckselince ithalat vergilerinin tahsilat\u0131 art\u0131yor. \u0130\u00e7 talep canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve tahsilat artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 yasalar\u0131n da deste\u011fiyle KDV ve \u00d6TV tahsilat\u0131 art\u0131yor, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapan\u0131yor.<br \/>\nBuradaki anahtar kavram b\u00fcy\u00fcmedir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme, T\u00fcrk siyasetinin, hatta belki de b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya siyasetinin ekonomi denilince en fazla anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kavramd\u0131r. Toplumlar\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f deneyimlerine g\u00f6re farkl\u0131 baz\u0131 kavramlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Mesela ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve i\u015fsizlik anahtar kavramlard\u0131r. Avrupa\u2019da enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k alan kavramlar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. T\u00fcrk siyasetinde ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan anahtar rol b\u00fcy\u00fcmededir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme, T\u00fcrk siyaseti i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcl\u00fc bir kavramd\u0131r. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede mesela \u201cCari a\u00e7\u0131k ald\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 gidiyor\u201d demeye kalksan\u0131z \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomide cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan korkma\u201d diye yan\u0131tlarlar.<\/p>\n<p><strong>As\u0131l olan sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmek\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\n1980\u2019li y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi bir yandan h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, bir yandan da enflasyonu denetlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. Ba\u015fbakan \u00d6zal, her zaman b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden yana tav\u0131r koyard\u0131. Her y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u201cBirincil \u00f6nceli\u011fimiz enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmektir\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 yapar, sonra b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelir, \u00f6nceli\u011fi kapar giderdi. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6nceli\u011fini hat\u0131rlatmaya kalksan\u0131z \u00d6zal g\u00fcler, \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fcme iyidir, enflasyona sonra bakar\u0131z\u201d derdi.<br \/>\nBug\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00fcnk\u00fcnden tek fark\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kamu kesimi ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00f6kenli olmas\u0131 yerine \u00f6zel kesim ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k k\u00f6kenli olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa bak\u0131p da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek do\u011fru de\u011fildir.<br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fcye kap\u0131lmak bazen sanc\u0131l\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar getirebilir. B\u00fcy\u00fcye kap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda bazen ger\u00e7ekleri g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rmaya ba\u015flars\u0131n\u0131z. Sonra o kap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda bir de bakars\u0131n\u0131z ki baz\u0131 i\u015fler ters gidiyor ve sizin onlar\u0131 tekrar d\u00fczeltmeye zaman\u0131n\u0131z kalmam\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin b\u00fcy\u00fcs\u00fcne kat\u0131lmak bazen sanc\u0131l\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar getirebilir. Bazen ger\u00e7ekleri g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rmaya ba\u015flars\u0131n\u0131z. Son g\u00fcnlerde d\u00f6rt \u00f6nemli veri seti pe\u015f pe\u015fe a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2918"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2918\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}