{"id":2908,"date":"2011-07-19T09:39:17","date_gmt":"2011-07-19T06:39:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2908"},"modified":"2011-07-19T09:39:35","modified_gmt":"2011-07-19T06:39:35","slug":"tl-olumsuz-ayrisiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/tl-olumsuz-ayrisiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TL Olumsuz Ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Stres testleriyle stresini atamayan euronun de\u011fer kaybetmesi belki de en \u00e7ok TL\u2019yi vurdu. D\u00fcn\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>teknik<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli olan 1.6570\u2019in de \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131 bir ara 1.6720\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckselirken, g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.6640 seviyelerinden kapatt\u0131!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2658826397\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin sebeplerine ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaki \u201cKurlar nereye gidiyor?\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131mda de\u011finmi\u015ftim. K\u0131saca; yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131rken, pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmalar\u0131 tam tersine\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>yeni<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0d\u00f6viz talebi yaratt\u0131, MB\u2019n\u0131n \u2018kontroll\u00fc gerginlik\u2019 politkas\u0131 do\u011frultusunda \u201csessiz kalmas\u0131\u201d ve tabii ki paritenin 1.45\u2019lerden 1.39-1.40 band\u0131na gerilemesi ba\u015fl\u0131ca sebepler olarak s\u0131ralanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Fed ve ECB\u2019nin \u201cgev\u015fek para politikalar\u0131na devam\u201d edeceklerini s\u00f6ylemelerine ra\u011fmen yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n T\u00fcrk piyasalar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yorlar veya yeni pozisyon a\u00e7m\u0131yorlar! Yabanc\u0131lar i\u00e7in \u201ccari a\u00e7\u0131k\u201d meselesinin bir gerilimi unsuru haline gelmesi ve devam\u0131nda da bu soruna kar\u015f\u0131n MB\u2019n\u0131n \u201cyeni politika karma\u015fas\u0131na\u201d g\u00fcvenlerinin olmamas\u0131 ilk akla gelen sebep gibi duruyor! \u0130\u015fin k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc b\u00f6ylesi bir\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>g\u00fcven<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0sorununu a\u015fmak hem zor hem de pahall\u0131ya patlayacak!<\/p>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz bir y\u0131lda cari a\u00e7\u0131k meselesinin ciddi bir sorun haline gelece\u011fi\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>\u00e7ok<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131, yaz\u0131ld\u0131, \u00e7izildi. Enerji d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte \u00e7ok ciddi bir fatura y\u00fckleyece\u011fi, ithalata dayal\u0131 \u00fcretim\/ihracat modelinin ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za dert a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 da&#8230; \u015eartlar uygunken, k\u00fcresel fonlama kabiliyetimiz iyiyken ve de kendimizi ucuza fonluyorken, kimseye ihtiya\u00e7 duymaks\u0131z\u0131n; belki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden bir par\u00e7a fedak\u00e2rl\u0131k ederek; bu sorunu \u201cmakul say\u0131labilecek\u201d seviyelere indirebilecekken bunu yapmad\u0131k ve \u015fimdi bunun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131yla u\u011fra\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Neden mi pahall\u0131ya patlayacak? Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 fonlamak i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan d\u0131\u015f kaynak art\u0131k eskisi kadar ucuza gelmeyecek \u00fclkeye. \u0130lk fatura verdi\u011fi d\u00f6viz i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz talep etmesiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k T\u00fcrkiye daha riskli bir \u00fclke olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131yor olacak. Di\u011fer yandan yabanc\u0131lar T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 cinsinden aktiflere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapacaksa da ya kurlar\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131, ya da varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekleyecek. Varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ne demek? Borsadaki hisse senedi veya bono fiyatlar\u0131 gerilemesidir (bono getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesi). Yabanc\u0131lar kendileri i\u00e7in<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>uygun<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0ko\u015fullar olu\u015fana kadar bekleyeceklerdir. Bu da yabanc\u0131 fonlara ihtiya\u00e7 duyan bizim s\u00fcregiden fonlama talebimizin daha y\u00fcksek maliyet yaratmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu konuda somut ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a da bu \u201cgerginlik\u201d s\u00fcr\u00fcp gidecektir. Peki k\u0131sa vadede kurlar nereye gider diye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda&#8230; Dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131nda \u00f6nce 1.6450 ard\u0131ndan da 1.6570\u2019in a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 1.7350 gibi yeni bir seviyenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131. Dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131 yak\u0131n zamanda buraya \u00e7\u0131kar m\u0131? TL\u2019nin grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi di\u011fer geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimlerinden bu denli negatif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda ihtimali artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Mutlaka parite de bu seyirde etkili olacakt\u0131r. Euro\/dolar paritesinde 1.3910\u2019un alt\u0131na inilmesi 1.3650\u2019lerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acakt\u0131r ki b\u00f6ylesi bir hareket dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131ndaki hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir!<\/p>\n<p>Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltacak politikalar geli\u015ftirilmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, \u201cd\u00fczeltmeyi yapmak piyasalara d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.\u201d Bug\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fananlarda bundan ibarettir!<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3228023141\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stres testleriyle stresini atamayan euronun de\u011fer kaybetmesi belki de en \u00e7ok TL\u2019yi vurdu. D\u00fcn\u00a0teknik\u00a0a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli olan 1.6570\u2019in de \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131 bir ara 1.6720\u2019ye&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2908"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2908\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}