{"id":287,"date":"2011-05-18T23:17:20","date_gmt":"2011-05-18T20:17:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=287"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:49:00","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:49:00","slug":"mevcut-egilimler-kalici-olamayacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/mevcut-egilimler-kalici-olamayacak\/","title":{"rendered":"Mevcut e\u011filimler kal\u0131c\u0131 olamayacak!.."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere bak\u0131l\u0131r ise ekonomi iyi gidiyormu\u015f! Konsolide b\u00fct\u00e7e uzun s\u00fcredir ilk defa fazla 1.1 milyar T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 fazla vermi\u015f; mart ay\u0131 i\u015fsizlik rakam\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 11.5 d\u00fczeyine gerilemi\u015f. Bu verilerin ger\u00e7e\u011fi ne oranda yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rakarak ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7i cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m ve soral\u0131m: Cari a\u00e7\u0131kta k\u0131r\u0131lan muhte\u015fem rekor ile i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri aras\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ili\u015fki var m\u0131d\u0131r? Var ise ekonomide i\u015flerin iyi gitti\u011fi iddia edilebilir mi? Ekonomide iyice olumsuzla\u015fan rekabet ko\u015fullar\u0131 nedeniyle faaliyet gelirleri erir iken cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, vergi gelirlerinin ve istihdam\u0131n artmas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir durum mudur?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2940219027\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Evet cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ili\u015fki vard\u0131r; cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcr iken b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirleri art\u0131yor, a\u00e7\u0131k azal\u0131yor veya bu kez oldu\u011fu gibi fazla olu\u015fabiliyor; temelde sermaye hareketleri krediler ve i\u00e7 talepte ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f hem bu ili\u015fkiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor, hem de istihdama katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Aksine sermaye hareketleri daralmaya ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak i\u00e7 talep zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortal\u0131k kar\u0131\u015f\u0131yor, belirsizlik ve g\u00fcvensizlik art\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fsizlik art\u0131yor, b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirleri eriyor ve a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k yeni rekorlar k\u0131rar iken nisan ay\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndaki fazlaya ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na bakarak i\u015flerin iyi gitti\u011fi iddia edilemez; edenlerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fey ise g\u00f6z boyamadan \u00f6teye gidemez.<\/p>\n<p>Yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131 ay\u0131 a\u015fan s\u00fcredir Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve mali sekt\u00f6r aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan inatla\u015fmay\u0131 hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde istikrars\u0131zla\u015fma sinyalleri veren sermaye hareketleri kontrols\u00fcz bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcyen cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u0131\u015f finansman kalitesindeki olumsuzla\u015fma gibi sebepler ile Merkez Bankas\u0131 ekonomiye m\u00fcdahale etme gere\u011fi duymu\u015ftu. Kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r ise cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n da kabul edilebilir seviyeleri a\u015fmas\u0131 engellenmi\u015f olacakt\u0131; bu s\u00fcrecin i\u00e7 talepten b\u00fct\u00e7eye ve i\u015fsizli\u011fe kadar t\u00fcm ekonomik parametreleri etkilemesi s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131. Fakat mali sekt\u00f6r kendi bildi\u011fini okudu, kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamad\u0131 ve ekonomi iyice \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131. Sonu\u00e7ta cari a\u00e7\u0131k rekorlar k\u0131rarken b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirleri de bu e\u011filime e\u015flik etti, fazla olu\u015ftu, i\u015fsizlik azal\u0131yormu\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle bug\u00fcn olumlu gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen rakamlar ciddi bir itaatsizli\u011fin sonucunda kazaran olu\u015ftu. Ayr\u0131ca mali sekt\u00f6rde tehlikenin kabul\u00fcne ra\u011fmen \u015fekillenen itaatsizlik hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu a\u015famadan sonra bankalar kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sar veya k\u0131smak zorunda b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131r ise i\u00e7 talep daralacak, i\u015fsizlik \u00f6zellikle eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan sonra geri bir \u015fekilde artacak, b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirleri azalacak ve a\u00e7\u0131k geri gelecek ve b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n denetim alt\u0131na girmesi i\u00e7in bunlara katlan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekecek. ayr\u0131ca kredilerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 bug\u00fcn hi\u00e7 konu\u015fulmayan fakat sinsice a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fan ba\u015fka sorunlar\u0131n da \u00f6ncelikli olarak g\u00fcndeme gelmesine sebep olacak!..<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn i\u015fsizlikte ya\u015fanan azal\u0131\u015f bir yandan mevsimlik dalgalanmalar\u0131n di\u011fer yandan acilen so\u011futulmas\u0131 gereken \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f bir ekonominin sonucudur. Vergi gelirlerinin y\u00fczde 70&#8217;i a\u015fan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n harcamalardan al\u0131nan vergiler oldu\u011fu, b\u00fct\u00e7enin fazla vermesinin harcama k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131ndan de\u011fil gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00f6lgesi niteli\u011findedir ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fildir. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselir iken 260 bin motorlu ta\u015f\u0131t sat\u0131labilmi\u015f ise halk\u0131m\u0131z \u015fa\u015f\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f demektir; b\u00f6yle devam edemeyece\u011fi iki kere ikinin d\u00f6rt etti\u011fi kadar kesindir. \u0130\u00e7 talep ve onu uyaran kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki \u015fuursuzlu\u011fun ac\u0131 bir bedeli olacakt\u0131r. Sonbaharla birlikte hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131lda oldu\u011fu gibi devam edemeyece\u011fi daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere bak\u0131l\u0131r ise ekonomi iyi gidiyormu\u015f! Konsolide b\u00fct\u00e7e uzun s\u00fcredir ilk defa fazla 1.1 milyar T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 fazla vermi\u015f; mart ay\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=287"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/287\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}