{"id":28693,"date":"2013-11-12T09:48:54","date_gmt":"2013-11-12T07:48:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=28693"},"modified":"2013-11-12T09:49:12","modified_gmt":"2013-11-12T07:49:12","slug":"son-ceyrek-zorlu-gecebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/son-ceyrek-zorlu-gecebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Son \u00c7eyrek Zorlu Ge\u00e7ebilir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2013 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131na gelmi\u015f bulunuyoruz. K\u00fcresel Ekonomiyi inceledi\u011fimizde, \u00fclkelerin makro dinamiklerine g\u00f6z att\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ortaya \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 bir tablo \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2007 A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019 de ba\u015flayan K\u00fcresel Finans Krizi ilk zamanlar ne Avrupa ne Japonya ne de \u00c7in ekonomisini etkisini alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Y\u0131llar ilerledik\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ki t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya K\u00fcresel Finans Krizinin \u00e7ekim merkezi i\u00e7inde. Bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u00f6rt b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 olarak bilinen ABD FED, Japonya BOJ, \u0130ngiltere BOE ve Avrupa Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n parasal geni\u015fleme ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda piyasaya sundu\u011fu likidite 10 trilyon $\u2019\u0131 a\u015fmak \u00fczere. Sadece 3,5-4 trilyon $\u2019\u0131 ABD taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Son \u00e7eyrekte ise, ABD ekonomisi 3. \u00e7eyrekte de beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ederek % 2,8\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7en Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam yine beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde geldi ve 204 bini test etti ki Ekim ay\u0131nda kamu 10 g\u00fcn kapal\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen Geli\u015fmekte Olan \u00dclkelerin beklentisi , ABD\u2019 nin ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi parasal geni\u015flemenin devam etmesi ve sermaye giri\u015flerinin artmas\u0131. Ancak, \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, ABD ekonomisinde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 da olsa iyile\u015fmenin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde, Kas\u0131m ve Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam rakamlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131k\u00e7a, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi bekleniyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4044081414\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Esas soru \u015fu ? Geli\u015fen Ekonomilerde en \u00f6nemli makro sorun ne ? Geli\u015fen Ekonomilerin son \u00e7eyrekte m\u00fccadele edece\u011fi iki temel sorun Cari A\u00e7\u0131k ve Y\u00fcksek Enflasyon olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Dolar maliyetinin giderek artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, likiditenin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131, Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilere sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme giriyoruz. Gerek \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r gerekse kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn, 2014&#8242; teki olas\u0131 ABD merkezli tahvil azalt\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Son olarak \u00f6nemli bir hususu belirtmekte yarar var. Geli\u015fen piyasalar, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n finans sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zmek istiyorsa, Do\u011frudan Yat\u0131r\u0131mlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeli, aksi takdirde, carry trade dedi\u011fimiz s\u0131cak para, k\u00fcresel likiditede g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7mek isteyebilir. Bu durumda, dolara ve\u00a0 sermaye giri\u015flerine daha \u00e7ok ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olabilir.<\/p>\n<p><b>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi <\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2013 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131na gelmi\u015f bulunuyoruz. K\u00fcresel Ekonomiyi inceledi\u011fimizde, \u00fclkelerin makro dinamiklerine g\u00f6z att\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ortaya \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7 bir tablo \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2007 A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019 de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":24594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}