{"id":2825,"date":"2011-07-16T12:08:21","date_gmt":"2011-07-16T09:08:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2825"},"modified":"2011-07-16T12:08:33","modified_gmt":"2011-07-16T09:08:33","slug":"buharlasmayi-onlemek-ne-yapmali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buharlasmayi-onlemek-ne-yapmali\/","title":{"rendered":"Buharla\u015fmay\u0131 \u00d6nlemek: Ne Yapmal\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Is\u0131nmaya kar\u015f\u0131 vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yoluyla maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yanay\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-692266637\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Anlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir sav ile ba\u015flayay\u0131m. Ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcnce Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MB) faiz artt\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011finizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler var. \u0130lla \u0131s\u0131nma sav\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak sonu\u00e7 bu mudur?<\/p>\n<p>\u015eu andaki ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda MB\u2019nin faiz artt\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekmedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyim. Ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fir, enflasyon belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselme e\u011filimine girerse elbette MB\u2019nin faiz artt\u0131rmas\u0131 yararl\u0131 olabilir. Ama i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz ko\u015fullarda faiz artt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yararl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. Yararl\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 gibi, k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerini daha da artt\u0131rarak \u0131s\u0131nmaya katk\u0131da bulunmas\u0131 riski de var.<br \/>\nIs\u0131nmaya kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yoluyla maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yanay\u0131m. H\u00e2l\u00e2 h\u0131z kesmeyen kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 frenlemek \u00fczere Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu\u2019nun daha kuvvetli bi\u00e7imde devreye girmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, haftal\u0131k vadede bankalar\u0131n MB\u2019den ald\u0131klar\u0131 borca bir \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r getirilmesinin yararl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorum. T\u00fcm bunlardan sonra da k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerini k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin denenebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyim.<\/p>\n<p>Is\u0131nma tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u2018\u0131s\u0131nma\u2019 kavram\u0131n\u0131n mu\u011flakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Is\u0131nma, gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131ladan (GSYH\u2019den) ziyade toplam yurti\u00e7i talep ile ilgili bir kavram olmal\u0131. Yurti\u00e7i talep, \u00f6zel ve kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ile \u00f6zel ve kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131. \u00dcretmeyip bu talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ithal etti\u011finiz mallar\u0131 kaps\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u00fcretip ihra\u00e7 etti\u011finiz mallar\u0131 kapsam\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, GSYH\u2019ye (yurti\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen mallara olan talebe) ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in yurti\u00e7i talepten ithalat\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p, ihracat\u0131 ekliyoruz. Her iki de\u011fi\u015fkenin 2007\u2019nin son \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana hareketlerini Grafik 1\u2019de g\u00f6steriyorum. Son iki \u00e7eyrekte yurti\u00e7i talep ile GSYH aras\u0131ndaki farktaki belirgin a\u00e7\u0131lmaya dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim.<br \/>\nYurti\u00e7i talebin h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde iki de\u011fi\u015fkende bozulma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Elbette bozulma, bu iki de\u011fi\u015fkeni etkileyen di\u011fer unsurlar telafi edici y\u00f6nde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yorlarsa s\u00f6z konusu. Bu de\u011fi\u015fkenler enflasyon ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, enflasyonda bozulma olmamas\u0131 ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Telafi edici de\u011fi\u015fkenler, h\u0131zl\u0131 yurti\u00e7i talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yorlarsa, \u0131s\u0131nmaya ra\u011fmen enflasyon artmayabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0131s\u0131nma nedeniyle cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 artabilir. \u015e\u00fcphesiz tersi de ge\u00e7erli: Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bozulmayabilir, enflasyon artabilir. Ya da ikisi birden de bozulabilir.<br \/>\nYurti\u00e7i talebin h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ekonomide eninde sonunda enflasyonun da artaca\u011f\u0131 beklenebilir. Ancak bu \u2018eninde sonunda\u2019 olduk\u00e7a gecikmeli de olabilir. Mesela, \u00fclkeye \u00e7ok y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda sermaye (d\u00f6viz) giri\u015fi nedeniyle d\u00f6viz kuru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru gidebilir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00f6nemli ithal girdilerin fiyatlar\u0131 da artm\u0131yor hatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsa, yurti\u00e7i talebin fiyatlar\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 ortadan kalkabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hem cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hem de enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi. Bunu belirtmek ve giri\u015fte belirtti\u011fim \u00f6nlemlerin al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 istemek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorununun as\u0131l olarak yap\u0131sal bir sorun oldu\u011funu ve orta-uzun vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilece\u011fini yads\u0131mak da de\u011fildir. Ama hasta mide kanamas\u0131 ge\u00e7iriyorsa herhalde doktor ilk \u00f6nce o kanamay\u0131 durdurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Mide kanamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an nedenlerin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ise s\u0131ra daha sonra gelir.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2011\/07\/15\/fft16_mf766262.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is\u0131nmaya kar\u015f\u0131 vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yoluyla maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yanay\u0131m. Anlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir sav ile ba\u015flayay\u0131m. Ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcnce Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MB) faiz artt\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011finizi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2825"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2825\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}