{"id":2793,"date":"2011-07-15T09:52:30","date_gmt":"2011-07-15T06:52:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2793"},"modified":"2011-07-15T09:52:40","modified_gmt":"2011-07-15T06:52:40","slug":"avrupanin-borc-sorunu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/avrupanin-borc-sorunu\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n Bor\u00e7 Sorunu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n bor\u00e7 sorunu tam bir &#8220;bitmeyen senfoni&#8221; haline geldi. Biraz daha uzay\u0131p giderse Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n tamam\u0131\u00a0 kronik bor\u00e7 sorunu ya\u015fayan \u00fclke muamelesi g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flayacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2379571617\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda sorunun ne oldu\u011fu belli. Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerinin\u00a0 bor\u00e7 d\u00fczeyleri \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek ve ulusal kaynaklar\u0131\u00a0 bu bor\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6demekte yetersiz kal\u0131yor. Bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunmamas\u0131 halinde bu \u00fclkeler iflas edecekler. \u0130flas ederken \u00f6teki \u00fcyeleri de pe\u015flerinden s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecekler.\u00a0 Sorunun bu oldu\u011fu noktas\u0131nda bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fi var.\u00a0 \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm noktas\u0131nda ise hen\u00fcz ortak bir noktaya gelinmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n bor\u00e7 sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde bir genel \u015fart\u0131n\u00a0 iki de uygulama se\u00e7ene\u011finin oldu\u011funu\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Genel \u015fart bor\u00e7 sorunu ya\u015fayan \u00fclkeye acilen d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan destek vermek, fon sa\u011flamakt\u0131r.\u00a0 Bu\u00a0 ad\u0131m at\u0131lmadan sorunu makul bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6zme olana\u011f\u0131 yok. B\u00f6yle bir destek bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkeye\u00a0 vadesi gelmi\u015f, \u00f6demesi dayatan bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deme yetene\u011fi\u00a0 kazand\u0131r\u0131r.\u00a0 \u00dclkeyi borcunu \u00f6demeyen (default) \u00fclke riskine d\u00fc\u015fmekten kurtar\u0131r. Belki en \u00f6nemlisi d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan verilen destek \u00fclkeye finansal piyasalardan\u00a0 yeniden bor\u00e7lanabilme imkan\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f destek sa\u011flanmas\u0131 bor\u00e7 sorununun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde en \u00f6nemli ad\u0131md\u0131r.\u00a0 Ancak sorunun kesin olarak \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelmez bu. D\u0131\u015f deste\u011fin ne \u015fekilde kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fart ko\u015fuldu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak\u00a0 d\u0131\u015f destekli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 farkl\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f destek alan \u00fclkenin ne yapaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin akla gelen ilk yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00e7ok bildik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmd\u00fcr. Ad\u0131 &#8220;ko\u015fulsall\u0131k&#8221; (conditionality) olarak konmu\u015f olan bu yakla\u015f\u0131ma daha \u00e7ok IMF destekleri ba\u011flam\u0131nda rastlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ko\u015fulsall\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yan destek yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc basittir. Destek verilen \u00fclkenin bunun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kemerlerini s\u0131kmas\u0131, dengelerini yeniden kuracak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi ve\u00a0 kendi i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa vadede\u00a0 bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme kapasitesini y\u00fckseltecek fazlalar yaratmas\u0131 istenir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4012584006\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 vericidir ama k\u0131sa vadede birikmi\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6deme imkan\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Ancak bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n orta- uzun vadede sorunlu oldu\u011fu da bilinir. Bu ba\u011flamda iki sorun oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu azaltmay\u0131p, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bor\u00e7 ikamesi sa\u011flamas\u0131 bu sorunlardan birisidir. Bor\u00e7 sorununda kriz noktas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131lmakta ama sorunun kendisi oldu\u011fu yerde kalmaktad\u0131r. \u0130kinci sorun ise yap\u0131lan sert frenin ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinami\u011fini neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131rlamas\u0131d\u0131r. Dikkat ederseniz k\u0131sa vadede bor\u00e7 sorunu a\u015f\u0131lmakta ancak, b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinami\u011fi kaybedildi\u011fi i\u00e7in,\u00a0 bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme ama\u00e7l\u0131 kaynak yarat\u0131lmas\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlanmaktad\u0131r. Bu durumda bor\u00e7 sorununun orta- uzun vadede tekrarlama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksektir. Kimilerinin bor\u00e7 bata\u011f\u0131 olarak niteledikleri durum budur.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcp, durarak bor\u00e7 sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zme se\u00e7ne\u011finin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme se\u00e7ene\u011fi konabilir. Genel \u015fart sa\u011flan\u0131p, d\u0131\u015f destek almaya ba\u015flayan \u00fclke bunun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek \u00f6deme imkan\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 se\u00e7ebilir. Ekonomiye akan fonlar statik olarak bor\u00e7 \u00f6demeye y\u00f6nlendirilmek yerine b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131racak harcamalara aktar\u0131l\u0131p daha dinamik bi\u00e7imde kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m bor\u00e7lar\u0131n hemen \u00f6denmesini sa\u011flamayabilir. Bana kal\u0131rsa bu \u015fart da de\u011fildir. Bor\u00e7lar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p, destek saplayanlanlar\u0131n kefaletiyle yeni bir \u00f6deme plan\u0131na ba\u011flanmas\u0131 bu sorunu a\u015fmak i\u00e7in yeterli olur diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu durumda k\u0131sa vadede\u00a0 bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesi yava\u015ft\u0131r ama b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomide orta-uzun d\u00f6nemde \u00fclkenin bor\u00e7 \u00f6deme kapasitesini y\u00fckselir, bor\u00e7 \u00f6demesi h\u0131zlan\u0131r ve bor\u00e7 sorununu kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6zme imkan\u0131 yarat\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3585800528\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Soruna bu analiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131nca Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin bor\u00e7 sorununun k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. AB kendi i\u00e7inde sorunlu \u00fclkelere destek sa\u011flamakta, yani\u00a0 genel \u015fart\u0131 yerine getirmekte hala teredd\u00fctl\u00fc davran\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn uzayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.\u00a0 Destek sa\u011flanmas\u0131 halinde uygulama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n tercihinin birinci se\u00e7enek oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme sorununun orta-uzun vadeye ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu da iyi bir haber say\u0131lmaz. .<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n bor\u00e7 sorunu tam bir &#8220;bitmeyen senfoni&#8221; haline geldi. Biraz daha uzay\u0131p giderse Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n tamam\u0131\u00a0 kronik bor\u00e7 sorunu ya\u015fayan \u00fclke muamelesi g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flayacak. Asl\u0131nda sorunun&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2793"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2793\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}