{"id":2745,"date":"2011-07-14T09:35:59","date_gmt":"2011-07-14T06:35:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2745"},"modified":"2011-07-14T09:36:19","modified_gmt":"2011-07-14T06:36:19","slug":"zurnanin-firt-dedigi-yer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/zurnanin-firt-dedigi-yer\/","title":{"rendered":"Zurnan\u0131n F\u0131rt Dedi\u011fi Yer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerde cari a\u00e7\u0131k da azalmaya ba\u015flarsa bu geli\u015fme kamu maliyesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2032669814\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ba\u015fl\u0131ktaki deyimin asl\u0131 \u2018zurnan\u0131n z\u0131rt dedi\u011fi yer\u2019 dir biliyorsunuz ama G\u00fcng\u00f6r Uras \u00fcstad\u0131m\u0131z bir yaz\u0131s\u0131nda z\u0131rt yerine kibarl\u0131k olsun diye f\u0131rt kelimesini koyup da yaz\u0131nca ben de b\u00f6yle kullan\u0131r oldum. Zurnan\u0131n f\u0131rt dedi\u011fi yer de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k ili\u015fkisi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Geli\u015fme<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00dc\u0130K, may\u0131s ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yani bu y\u0131l\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki sanayi \u00fcretim endeksine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 8 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f bulunuyor. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 14,4 idi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ilk iki ay\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 8,1. Bu oran\u0131n bize anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki \u015fey var: (1) Sanayi ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ediyor. (2) Sanayi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Sanayi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bu y\u0131lki verilerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131lla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmam\u0131zdan da \u00e7\u0131karabiliyoruz. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011findeki sanayi \u00fcretimi art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 14 idi. Bu y\u0131l e\u011fer haziran ay\u0131nda bir s\u00fcrpriz \u00e7\u0131kmazsa y\u00fczde 8 dolay\u0131nda kalacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130malat sanayiinde kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 oran\u0131 tam da benzer \u015feyleri s\u00f6ylemiyor asl\u0131nda. Kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemle, \u00f6rne\u011fin 2008 y\u0131l\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rsek de ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re de ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re de art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<br \/>\nYani sanayi \u00fcretim oranlar\u0131 bize sanayide b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin devam etti\u011fini ama h\u0131z kesti\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 h\u0131z\u0131n da kesilmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hangisinin daha etkin oldu\u011funu ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n<p>Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan daha \u00f6nemli olan\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretiminin durumudur. Her ne kadar sanayi \u00fcretimi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam \u00fcretiminin ancak d\u00f6rtte birine denk geliyor olsa da etkileri bundan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksektir. Konuya b\u00f6yle bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda sanayi \u00fcretimindeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de yava\u015flama y\u00f6n\u00fcnde etkileyece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Bu durumda ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini ifade edebilirim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tehlike<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3144398452\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrenler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu geli\u015fme rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 bir geli\u015fme gibi duruyor. Bu duruma bakarak \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z kesmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0131s\u0131nma \u00f6nce \u0131l\u0131narak sonra da hafif\u00e7e so\u011fuyarak sorun olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r\u201d bi\u00e7iminde bir yorum yap\u0131lmas\u0131 do\u011fru gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k i\u00e7imiz rahat de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ortada bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k ger\u00e7e\u011fi var. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131nda da ciddi bi\u00e7imde artmaya devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk be\u015f ay\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 8,7\u2019sine gelip dayanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p>Tehlike nerede derseniz i\u015fte tam da burada derim. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerde cari a\u00e7\u0131k da azalmaya ba\u015flarsa bu geli\u015fme, vergi gelirlerimizin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ithalata dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kamu maliyesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Ama bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma yasas\u0131 gelirleriyle a\u015f\u0131labilir. Tersi olursa yani b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde cari a\u00e7\u0131k artmaya devam ederse daha ciddi sorunlar \u00e7\u0131kar ortaya. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu kez d\u0131\u015f finansman sorunlar\u0131 kap\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7alacak demektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye, cari a\u00e7\u0131k sorununu ikiye ay\u0131rarak \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. K\u0131sa vadeli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler i\u00e7in uygulanacak politikalar farkl\u0131, uzun vadeli olanlar i\u00e7in farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Uzun vadeli sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye y\u00f6nelmek do\u011fru tercih olacakt\u0131r. Sorun uzun vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in hemen yola koyulmak gerekiyor. Uzun vadede hepimiz \u00f6lm\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z ama uzun vadenin k\u0131sa vadelerin eklenmesinden olu\u015ftu\u011funu da unutmamak gerekir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2096169613\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerde cari a\u00e7\u0131k da azalmaya ba\u015flarsa bu geli\u015fme kamu maliyesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Giri\u015f Ba\u015fl\u0131ktaki deyimin asl\u0131 \u2018zurnan\u0131n z\u0131rt dedi\u011fi yer\u2019 dir biliyorsunuz&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2745\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}