{"id":27358,"date":"2013-08-23T10:08:52","date_gmt":"2013-08-23T08:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=27358"},"modified":"2013-08-23T10:09:16","modified_gmt":"2013-08-23T08:09:16","slug":"dolar-yanginina-bir-bardak-su","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dolar-yanginina-bir-bardak-su\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar Yang\u0131n\u0131na Bir Bardak Su"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar\u0131n ate\u015fi s\u00f6nm\u00fcyor. Asl\u0131nda olmas\u0131 gereken seviyenin halen alt\u0131nda. Merkez Bankas\u0131 verilerini baz al\u0131rsan\u0131z, enflasyon maliyetiyle 2,1 TL\u2019nin normal de\u011fer oldu\u011fu, bundan 2 sene \u00f6nce Prof. Dr. Esfender Korkmaz taraf\u0131ndan dile getiriliyordu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4082675840\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yani bug\u00fcn de\u011ferlenen dolar\u0131 de\u011fil; y\u0131llard\u0131r serbest kur kisvesi alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanan dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenen TL\u2019nin sonucunu ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bug\u00fcne kadar y\u00fcksek miktarda s\u0131cak para, kayna\u011f\u0131 belirsiz para gibi fakt\u00f6rlerin etkisiyle bu sahte de\u011fer korunabildi.<\/p>\n<p>Ama bug\u00fcn para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve gelen para miktar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 nedeniyle normal seviyesine ko\u015fuyor. As\u0131l belirsizlik ise 2,1 TL\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 noktada nerede duraca\u011f\u0131ndad\u0131r. Geli\u015fmeler, i\u015fte bu e\u015fik noktan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunu, maliyeti itibariyle belirsiz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Gelelim Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n buna m\u00fcdahale \u015fekline\u2026 Faiz silah\u0131n\u0131 tam \u00e7ekmeyip, d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m\u0131yla durumu dengelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Fakat burada da bir gariplik var. De\u011fer \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u015foklamak i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek miktarl\u0131 dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck miktarl\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcmleri tercih ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nlem ad\u0131na haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck miktarlarda yap\u0131lacak al\u0131m ve sat\u0131mlar, rutin s\u00fcre\u00e7lerde olas\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in sonu\u00e7 verir ve do\u011frudur. T\u0131pk\u0131 kasa nakit bazda tamtak\u0131r iken Durmu\u015f Y\u0131lmaz d\u00f6neminde yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k al\u0131mlar gibi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bu, olas\u0131 bir ani \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta \u015fok m\u00fcdahale yap\u0131labilecek dolar miktar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutabilmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131ld\u0131. Ama \u00fclkede s\u0131cak para miktar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, eldeki nakit halen yetersiz\u2026 \u015eimdi, daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen risk hayat\u0131m\u0131za girdi.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat Merkez, \u015fok m\u00fcdahale yerine k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 hareketlere y\u00f6neliyor. Bu da dolar\u0131n ate\u015fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmedi\u011fi gibi, eldeki k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kur\u015funun da heba edilmesine neden oluyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Esasen sonu\u00e7 vermesi de b\u00f6ylesi bir yang\u0131n ortam\u0131nda zor. Mutfakta alev alan oca\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yang\u0131n\u0131, bardak bardak su d\u00f6kerek s\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak gibi\u2026 Bu durumda da ortaya iki alternatif \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2814092241\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ya son derece yanl\u0131\u015f bir yang\u0131n s\u00f6nd\u00fcrme anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131z var ya da sular kesik, mutfaktaki su miktar\u0131 da k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden damla damla m\u00fcdahil olunuyor. Do\u011fru cevap hangisi, zaman g\u00f6sterecek. Ama riskin boyutunu bug\u00fcnden bilmemiz m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervinin ger\u00e7ek durumunu\u2026 Ne kadar\u0131 ka\u011f\u0131tta (tahvil, hisse vs), bu ka\u011f\u0131tlar kime ait ve ne kadar canl\u0131 para mevcut? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu anormal yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131z ve anla\u015f\u0131lmaz m\u00fcdahale \u015fekliniz, en iyimser tahminle makroyu dengelese bile, yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anaforla reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc iflas veya a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 zarar riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Madem bu para bizim ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p TV\u2019lerde d\u00f6viz rezerviyle \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fcyorsunuz; s\u00f6yleyin de bilelim cebimizde ne kadar nakit para var?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:cetinunsalan@yahoo.com\">cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/a><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3354346063\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar\u0131n ate\u015fi s\u00f6nm\u00fcyor. Asl\u0131nda olmas\u0131 gereken seviyenin halen alt\u0131nda. Merkez Bankas\u0131 verilerini baz al\u0131rsan\u0131z, enflasyon maliyetiyle 2,1 TL\u2019nin normal de\u011fer oldu\u011fu, bundan 2 sene \u00f6nce&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27358"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27358\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}