{"id":27289,"date":"2013-08-20T10:04:52","date_gmt":"2013-08-20T08:04:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=27289"},"modified":"2013-08-20T10:04:52","modified_gmt":"2013-08-20T08:04:52","slug":"gozler-merkezde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/gozler-merkezde\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00f6zler Merkezde"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) eyl\u00fclde tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131nda azalt\u0131ma ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri y\u00fckselince, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimleri dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti. \u0130\u00e7eride de sepet baz\u0131nda TL 2.28 ile tarihinin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00fckseldi. Dolar 1.95 TL\u2019nin, euro da 2.60 TL\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<br \/>\nB\u0130ST endeksinin kayb\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019i buldu. G\u00f6sterge tahvilin faizi\u00a0 9.37\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckseldi. Avrupa borsalar\u0131ndaki kay\u0131plar ise y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131.<br \/>\nPiyasalar, yar\u0131n Fed\u2019in temmuz ay\u0131 para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait tutanaklar\u0131 bekliyor. Fed\u2019in tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ne zaman azalt\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda net bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131p yapmayaca\u011f\u0131 merak ediliyor. Piyasalarda genel beklenti, Fed\u2019in 17-18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda tahvil azaltmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<br \/>\nPiyasalar, ge\u00e7en hafta per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019den gelen verilerle sars\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. ABD\u2019de 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri d\u00fcn y\u00fczde 2.86\u2019y\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 320 binle son 6 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerileyince, ABD istihdam piyasas\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme, piyasalarda parasal geni\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik tedirginli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Dolar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra tahvil faizleri de y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3899067408\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>\u0130\u00c7ER\u0130DE G\u00dcNDEM PPK<\/strong><br \/>\n\u00d6te yandan yurti\u00e7inde piyasalar, Fed\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra bug\u00fcn TCMB\u2019nin Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kacak kararlara odakland\u0131. Toplant\u0131da Merkez\u2019in bekleme moduna ge\u00e7ece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen analistlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131ndan 25 veya 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f bekleyen analistler de bulunuyor.<br \/>\n\u00d6te yandan, sepetteki y\u00fckseli\u015fin enflasyona etkisi faiz beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ancak Merkez Bankas\u0131, temmuzda y\u00fczde 8.8 ile zirve yapan enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde d\u00fc\u015fmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2018D\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihaleleri yeniden ba\u015flayabilir\u2019<br \/>\nG\u00f6khan Uskuay &#8211; Global Menkul Stratejisti<\/strong><br \/>\nGeli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeleri cari a\u00e7\u0131k seviyesine g\u00f6re etkiliyor. T\u00fcrkiye bu grup i\u00e7inde g\u00f6receli olarak di\u011fer \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re daha az etkileniyor. Yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen r\u00fczgarlar sert oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in faiz koridorunda 25-50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmaz. Merkez Bankas\u0131, ge\u00e7en ay ara verdi\u011fi d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerine yeniden ba\u015flarsa belki 25-50 baz puanl\u0131k koridor art\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkili olabilir. Merkez\u2019in bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131da bbeklentimiz minimum d\u00fczeyde koridor art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na engellemek i\u00e7in yeniden bir d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m\u0131 karar\u0131 almas\u0131. Fakat bu bekledi\u011fimiz \u00f6nemlerde volatiliteyi azalt\u0131r ama TL\u2019de de\u011ferleme s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatamaz.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2018Koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131nda 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olur\u2019<br \/>\nBanu K\u0131vc\u0131 Tokal\u0131 &#8211; Halk Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ba\u015f Ekonomisti<\/strong><br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131, ge\u00e7en ay koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma\u2019 ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 atarken ana gerek\u00e7esini, \u2018fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkilerin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\u2019 olarak belirtmi\u015fti.<br \/>\nMerkez\u2019in politikas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek unsurlardaki tabloyu (enflasyonda bozulma ve fiyatlamadaki riskler, \u00fclke grubunda y\u00fcksek enflasyonla ayr\u0131\u015fma, kredi geni\u015flemesi, beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ilk yar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 gibi) g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Merkez\u2019in koridorun \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 50 baz puan daha yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek koridorun geni\u015fli\u011fini 425 baz puana \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2018Merkez Bankas\u0131 bekleme moduna ge\u00e7i\u015fe odaklan\u0131r\u2019<br \/>\nG\u00fclay Elif Girgin &#8211; Ata Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ba\u015f Ekonomisti<\/strong><br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda her \u00fc\u00e7 faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 da sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u00d6zellikle sonbaharla birlikte Fed\u2019in tahvil al\u0131m program\u0131na ili\u015fkin detaylar\u0131n belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile k\u00fcresel piyasalarda \u015fu an ya\u015fanmakta olan g\u00f6rece sakin seyrin yerini daha volatile bir ortama b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu beklentimiz dahilinde, dolar endeksi ile TL\/USD volatilitesinin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 seyri PPK\u2019n\u0131n faiz silah\u0131n\u0131 daha etkin olarak sonbaharda kullanaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Az bir ihtimal olsa da piyasaya s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n devam edece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik sinyal i\u00e7in \u00fcst bandda 25 baz puanl\u0131k sembolik bir art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrpriz olmaz.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>PETROL 110 DOLARI A\u015eTI<\/strong><br \/>\nBrent petrol 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Saxo Capital uluslararas\u0131 piyasalar analistlerinin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye g\u00f6re, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki hareket, S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fc nedeniyle d\u00fcnya petrol trafi\u011finde kilit \u00f6neme sahip M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da ya\u015fanan olaylardan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<br \/>\nYap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmede, \u201cOrtado\u011fu petrol trafi\u011fini riske atabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesi ve buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak yaz sezonunun sonuna gelinmesiyle ABD\u2019de rafineri taleplerinin azalmas\u0131 etkili. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu olanlara ek olarak Libya kaynakl\u0131 arz problemlerinin de yak\u0131n zamanda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlenmesi beklenmiyor\u201d denildi.<br \/>\nUzmanlara g\u00f6re, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi petrol ithal eden \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in olumsuz bir durum. Bu arada, uzun s\u00fcredir 1.300 dolar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndaki alt\u0131n\u0131n onsu da 1.366 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u0130ST\u2019TE BDDK ETK\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><br \/>\nDolardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra BDDK\u2019n\u0131n bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla B\u0130ST endeksi de\u011fer kaybetti. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n negatif etkilenece\u011fi beklentisiyle bankalara gelen sat\u0131\u015flarla endeks y\u00fczde 2.55 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 72.382 puandan kapand\u0131.\u00a0Bankac\u0131l\u0131k endeksinin kayb\u0131 da y\u00fczde 3.48 oldu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) eyl\u00fclde tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131nda azalt\u0131ma ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri y\u00fckselince, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimleri dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti. \u0130\u00e7eride&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27289","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27289"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27289\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27289"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27289"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27289"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}