{"id":26956,"date":"2013-07-30T10:00:50","date_gmt":"2013-07-30T08:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=26956"},"modified":"2013-07-30T10:00:50","modified_gmt":"2013-07-30T08:00:50","slug":"merkez-enflasyon-tahminini-yukseltti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/merkez-enflasyon-tahminini-yukseltti\/","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Enflasyon Tahminini Y\u00fckseltti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131,\u00a0enflasyonun 2013 sonunda orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,2 olmak \u00fczere y\u00fczde 5,2 ile y\u00fczde 7,2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ettiklerini belirterek, &#8220;Enflasyon tahminlerimize temel olu\u015fturan varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015fsal\u00a0ko\u015fullar\u0131 bir arada de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizde,\u00a0temelde d\u00f6viz kuru ve petrol\u00a0fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak, 2013 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminimizi\u00a00,9 puan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelledi&#8221; dedi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3616315039\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, Merkez Bankas\u0131nda d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131yla Enflasyon Raporu\u2019nu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Orta vadeli tahminleri olu\u015ftururken, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde para politikalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin artan belirsizlik ve zay\u0131flayan sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n temkinli ve esnek duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi esas ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, di\u011fer bir ifadeyle tahminlerinin, likidite politikas\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak s\u0131k\u0131 tutuldu\u011fu ve faiz koridorunun gerekti\u011finde aktif olarak kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi temel ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>Kredilerin y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde kademeli olarak yava\u015flayarak, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15 d\u00fczeyine inece\u011fini varsayd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, enflasyonun 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,2 olmak \u00fczere y\u00fczde 5,2 ile y\u00fczde 7,2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz.\u00a02014 y\u0131l sonu tahminimiz ise orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 5\u00a0olmak \u00fczere y\u00fczde 3,3 ile\u00a0y\u00fczde 6,7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.\u00a0\u00d6zetle\u00a0enflasyon tahminlerimize temel olu\u015fturan varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015fsal\u00a0ko\u015fullar\u0131 bir arada de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizde, temelde d\u00f6viz kuru ve petrol\u00a0fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak, 2013 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminimizi\u00a00,9 puan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelledik. K\u00fcresel ekonominin zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve i\u00e7\u00a0talebin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyri nedeniyle s\u00f6z konusun geli\u015fmelerin 2014 y\u0131l sonu enflasyonu\u00a0\u00fczerindeki etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyonun k\u0131sa vadede enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki baz\u00a0etkisi kaynakl\u0131 olarak dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izlemesini bekliyoruz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u0131ll\u0131k\u00a0enflasyonun temmuz ay\u0131nda, bu y\u0131l\u0131n tepe noktas\u0131 olan y\u00fczde 9 civar\u0131na\u00a0ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim sergileyece\u011fini\u00a0tahmin ediyoruz. Enflasyonun y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 5 hedefinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir miktar\u00a0\u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini beklemekle beraber, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5\u00a0hedefine yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc vurgulamak istiyorum. Bunun sebebi\u00a02013 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131nda t\u00fct\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon\u00a0\u00fczerindeki etkisinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkacak\u00a0olmas\u0131d\u0131r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, &#8220;H&#8221; ve &#8220;I&#8221; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinin ise son d\u00f6nemdeki\u00a0d\u00f6viz kuru hareketlerinin gecikmeli etkilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc\u00a0\u00e7eyre\u011finde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterdikten sonra y\u0131l sonuna kadar genelde\u00a0yatay bir seyir izlemesini beklediklerini bildirdi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3270357330\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bahsetti\u011fi tahminlere ek olarak Enflasyon Raporu\u2019nun &#8220;Riskler&#8221; b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ve k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair alternatif\u00a0senaryolara da de\u011findiklerini dile getiren Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131, temel olarak\u00a0\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel likidite\u00a0ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu \u00fczerinde belirgin rol oynayaca\u011f\u0131ndan\u00a0bahsettiklerini bildirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131,\u00a0enflasyonun 2013 sonunda orta noktas\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,2 olmak \u00fczere y\u00fczde 5,2 ile y\u00fczde 7,2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ettiklerini belirterek, &#8220;Enflasyon tahminlerimize&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":14656,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26956\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}