{"id":268,"date":"2011-05-23T22:26:32","date_gmt":"2011-05-23T19:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=268"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:46:12","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:46:12","slug":"imkb%e2%80%99de-bu-hafta-tepki-cikisi-olabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/imkb%e2%80%99de-bu-hafta-tepki-cikisi-olabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130MKB\u2019de bu hafta tepki \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 olabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130MKB May\u0131s ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 63.298 puandan kapand\u0131. Halen daha bir sonraki teknik seviye olan 61.700\u2019\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali var. Ancak \u00f6ncesinde, yani bu hafta i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltme, \u2018se\u00e7im rallisi havas\u0131 yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u2019 birtak\u0131m hareketler g\u00f6rebiliriz. D\u00fczeltmelerin 61.700 g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden gelmesi durumunda \u0130MKB\u2019de \u00f6nce 64.300, ard\u0131ndan da 65.450 seviyeleri g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Ancak bu y\u00fckseli\u015flerin daha uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabileceklerini zannetmiyorum<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3916575584\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130MKB son g\u00fcnlerde hem geli\u015fmi\u015f, hem de geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke borsalar\u0131ndan negatif olarak ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor gibi! Daha \u00f6nceleri \u0130MKB \u201chaketti\u011finden fazla pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, \u015fimdi \u2018normale\u2019 d\u00f6n\u00fcyor\u201d tezi bile bu negatif ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya yetmiyor!<\/p>\n<p>Bir\u00e7ok endeksle k\u0131yaslanabilir. Kolay olmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan S&amp;P 500 ile k\u0131yaslad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; Ekim 2010\u2019da pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fan \u0130MKB, sonras\u0131nda bu fark\u0131 Mart 2011\u2019de geri vererek dengeyi sa\u011fl\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u201cSell in May go away-May\u0131s\u2019ta sat ve uza\u201d stratejisi bizde bu kez \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmayacak m\u0131 diye yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Ancak \u00f6yle olmad\u0131 ve bu strateji bizim piyasalar\u0131m\u0131zda hayata ge\u00e7erken ABD\u2019deki hareket s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Her ne kadar Amerikan borsalar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa bir zaman sonra bu trene bineceklerine inan\u0131yor olsam da \u0130MKB\u2019nin harekete \u00e7ok \u00f6nceden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek gerek! Bu durumu Morgan Stanley\u2019nin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cD\u00fcnya\u201d ve \u0130MKB 100 endekslerinde de g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>Son haftalarda d\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131 muhte\u015fem bir performansla y\u00fckselmedi\u011fi gibi ufak ufak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorlar. Ama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri T\u00fcrkiye kadar de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bize has ekstra bir sorun var! Bunun ad\u0131na \u201cse\u00e7im\u201d mi dersiniz, \u201cSuriye\u201d mi dersiniz, \u201cSivil \u0130nsiyatifsizlik Hareketi\u201d ve onun 15 Haziran tehdidi mi dersiniz, \u0130ran m\u0131 dersiniz ben hen\u00fcz ad\u0131n\u0131 koyabilmi\u015f de\u011filim! Ancak farkl\u0131 bir durum oldu\u011fu a\u015fik\u00e2r. Bu farkl\u0131 durumun da \u201cfiyatlanmaya\u201d ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. E\u011fer ki fiyatlaman\u0131n i\u00e7ine \u201ca\u011f\u0131r politik unsurlar\u201d girmeye ba\u015flad\u0131ysa i\u015fimiz zor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde hem borsada hem de kur cephesinde ciddi hareketler g\u00f6rece\u011fiz demektir.<\/p>\n<p>Yok hen\u00fcz daha bu fiyatlama yap\u0131lm\u0131yor ama se\u00e7im sonras\u0131ndaki realizasyonlara i\u015fini b\u0131rakmak istemeyenler sebebiyle bir \u201cse\u00e7im anti-rallisi\u201d ya\u015fan\u0131yorsa, o zaman da ufukta daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferler var demektir. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO sert ve de \u201ckararl\u0131\u201d bir \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ve 62.750\u2019deki \u201cteknik\u201d seviyelerden birisi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ge\u00e7ildi ancak kapan\u0131\u015f bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde oldu. Halen daha bir sonraki teknik seviye olan 61.700\u2019\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali var! Ancak \u00f6ncesinde, yani bu hafta i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltme, \u201cse\u00e7im rallisi havas\u0131 yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan(!)\u201d birtak\u0131m hareketler g\u00f6rebiliriz. Zira 4 May\u0131s\u2019taki 70.335 zirvesinden, 20 May\u0131s\u2019taki 62.512\u2019ye olan hareket y\u00fczde 11.1\u2019lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ifade ediyor. B\u00f6ylesi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bu hafta k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fczeltmelerini g\u00f6rebiliriz. D\u00fczeltmelerin 61.700 g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden gelmesi durumunda \u0130MKB 100\u2019\u00fc \u00f6nce 64.300\u2019e ard\u0131ndan da 65.450 seviyelerine kadar ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ihtimali var! Ancak bu y\u00fckseli\u015flerin daha uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabileceklerini zannetmiyorum!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Euroyu bal\u00e7\u0131kla s\u0131vayamayacaklar!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nce Fitch Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n notunu \u00fc\u00e7 kademe birden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek B+\u2019ya indirdi! Ard\u0131ndan S&amp;P, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cdura\u011fandan, negatife\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve \u00fc\u00e7te bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde A+ olan kredi notunu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1635932405\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Di\u011fer yandan Yunanistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Papandreou Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan Ethnoz gazetesine verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda, \u201cBor\u00e7 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konular aras\u0131nda de\u011fil\u201d demi\u015f. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00dcyesi Juergen Stark ise Kom\u015fu\u2019yu kastederek \u201cECB i\u00e7in bir tek \u00e7izgi var ve o kesin: Taahh\u00fctlerinizi yerine getirmeniz gerekir\u201d demi\u015f Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan To Vima\u2019ya. Her ne kadar Yunan halk\u0131 daha fazla kemer s\u0131kmak istemiyor ve bu u\u011furda b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6steriler d\u00fczenliyor olsa da i\u015fleri hayli zor.<\/p>\n<p>ECB\u2019nin yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmay\u0131 istemiyor olmas\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Zira Yunanistan ile ba\u015flayacak bir yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma, \u0130rlanda, \u0130zlanda, Portekiz, \u0130spanya ve \u015fimdi de \u0130talya\u2019ya \u201cbula\u015fabilir\u201d. \u00d6n\u00fcn\u00fc alamay\u0131z diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fckleri i\u00e7in \u201ciyisi mi hi\u00e7 ba\u015flamas\u0131n!\u201d diyorlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Literat\u00fcre yeni bir kelime kat\u0131l\u0131maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor! \u201cRe-profiling-profil de\u011fi\u015ftirme\u201d. Daha T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi \u201cfa\u00e7ay\u0131 d\u00fczeltmek\u201d denebilecek bu s\u00f6ylemle, kom\u015funun bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ehresi de\u011fi\u015ftirilecek\u201d ama piyasalar\u0131n bunu \u201cyeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma\u201d olarak alg\u0131lamas\u0131 istenmiyor. Ad\u0131n\u0131 ne koyarsan\u0131z koyun, eninde sonunda i\u015f d\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015f\u0131p \u201crisk\u201d ve \u201cparan\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011feri\u201d kavramlar\u0131na kadar indirgenecektir. Ha yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131n, ha fa\u00e7as\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltin&#8230; Sonunda piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bunun ne oldu\u011funu son derece net olarak fiyatlayacaklard\u0131r ve bu da hi\u00e7bir zaman masa ba\u015f\u0131nda \u201carzulanan gibi\u201d olmayacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu bal\u00e7\u0131kla s\u0131vama \u00e7abalar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015f\u0131p euroyu vuracakt\u0131r. Bu hafta i\u00e7inde euroda yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcklerin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne \u015fahit olabiliriz! G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f baz\u0131nda 1.4045 seviyesinin alt\u0131na inilmesi durumunda 1.3910 seviyelerinin test edildi\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliriz. 1.4260 hele ki 1.4340\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n beyhude bal\u00e7\u0131kla s\u0131vama \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-600372226\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130MKB May\u0131s ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 63.298 puandan kapand\u0131. Halen daha bir sonraki teknik seviye olan 61.700\u2019\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclme&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=268"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/268\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}