{"id":2665,"date":"2011-07-12T11:38:41","date_gmt":"2011-07-12T08:38:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2665"},"modified":"2011-07-12T11:46:18","modified_gmt":"2011-07-12T08:46:18","slug":"euroda-inis-baslamak-uzere-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/euroda-inis-baslamak-uzere-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro&#8217;da \u0130ni\u015f Ba\u015flamak \u00dczere mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Tarihler, 2007 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011finde, ABD\u2019de ba\u015flayan Mortgage krizi, \u00fczerine dolar da m\u00fcthi\u015f bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcm piyasalar, Mortgage tsunamisi ile \u00e7alkalan\u0131rken, euro, prim yapmaya devam ederek, 2,10-15 seviyelerine y\u00fckselmi\u015f, 20 Mart 2009 tarihinde ise en y\u00fcksek seviyesi\u00a0 olan 2,30\u2019lar\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn gelinen noktada ise euro tekrar 2,30\u00a0 seviyelerine gelmi\u015f durumda, hatta ge\u00e7en hafta 2,36\u2019y\u0131 bile g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ancak, her ne kadar, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizleri ge\u00e7en hafta y\u00fckseltmesine ra\u011fmen, art\u0131k Euro\u2019da ini\u015f ba\u015flamak \u00fczere. \u00d6zellikle, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fini izlemenizi tavsiye ederim. Euro da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, dolar da ise y\u00fckseli\u015f ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n zamanda Avrupa\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan Bankac\u0131l\u0131k stress testleri, Portekiz, \u0130talya ve Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n\u00a0 bor\u00e7 sorunu, r\u00f6nesans k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011fa benziyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-135845357\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki ne oldu da bug\u00fcnlere gelindi. 2007 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren,\u00a0 ABD\u2019de ki k\u00fcresel finans krizi \u00fczerine dolar borcu olanlar, piyasalardan\u00a0 euro almaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar ve d\u00f6viz cinsinden de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. \u0130ktisat da k\u0131t olan mal\u0131n fiyat\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, euro da piyasada azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011feri s\u00fcratle artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu suretle de pariteyi euro lehine 1,50\u2019lere \u00e7ektiler. Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, iki y\u0131l \u00f6nce, Avrupa ekonomisinin ABD\u2019den daha iyi durumda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyenler acaba\u00a0 hangi parametreleri dikkate alarak yorum yap\u0131yorlard\u0131\u00a0\u00a0 merak ediyorum do\u011frusu. S\u00fcre\u00e7 bu \u015fekilde i\u015flerken, 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda kriz Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 etkilemeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6nce \u00fcretim durmaya ba\u015flad\u0131, daha sonra istihdam kayb\u0131 t\u00fcm Avrupa\u2019ya yay\u0131ld\u0131 ve durgunluk ba\u015flad\u0131. Ekonomistlerin g\u00f6z\u00fcnden ka\u00e7an en \u00f6nemli nokta ise, Avrupa b\u00f6lgesinin bor\u00e7 sorunuydu.\u00a0 2010 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde ise Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n 300 milyar euro tutar\u0131nda ki borcu, bir anda k\u00fcresel krizi Euro b\u00f6lgesine \u00e7evirdi. \u0130<strong>lk bak\u0131\u015fta sadece Yunanistan\u2019\u0131 ilgilendiren\u00a0 bir kredi krizi olarak nitelenen,\u00a0 ger\u00e7ekte ise\u00a0 buzda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sadece g\u00f6r\u00fcnen y\u00fcz\u00fc olan <\/strong><strong>Euro b\u00f6lgesi finans\u00a0 krizi<\/strong><strong>;\u00a0 may\u0131s ve haziran ay\u0131na do\u011fru \u0130spanya, Portekiz, \u0130rlanda, \u0130talya, \u0130ngiltere, Macaristan ve Bulgaristan ve di\u011fer Avrupa \u00fclkelerini bor\u00e7 sarmal\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Kredi krizinin detaylar\u0131n\u0131 incelemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z da\u00a0 ise durumun ne derece vahim oldu\u011fu ortaya\u00a0 \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Nisan ay\u0131nda kredi de\u011ferlendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 Standart&amp; Poors , Fitch, Moody\u2019s\u2019in Yunanistan\u2019dan sonra, \u0130spanya ve Portekizin notlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi, buz da\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnen y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131 .<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00fcnya\u00a0 Bankas\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re, Euro \u00fclkelerinin bor\u00e7 riski s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda; \u0130talya, 2 trilyon 600 milyar dolar,\u00a0 \u0130spanya 2 trilyon 500 milyar dolar ile ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekmekte. Portekiz, \u0130rlanda ve Yunanistan da bor\u00e7 sarmal\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine girmi\u015f durumda. <\/strong>\u0130spanya&#8217;n\u0131n ise b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda GSYH&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 11,2&#8217;si (117,6 milyar Euro) olurken, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10,1 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Portekiz&#8217;in ise\u00a0 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda\u00a0 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 GSYH&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 9,4&#8217;\u00fc (15,4 milyar Euro) olurken, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu y\u0131l bu rakam\u0131n y\u00fczde 8 civar\u0131nda oldu. Esas s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131,\u00a0 AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin kararl\u0131 hareket etmiyor olmas\u0131, G-20\u2019 maliye bakanlar\u0131ndan ortak bir karar \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131na ve euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere do\u011fru yol almas\u0131na neden olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki aylar, \u015f\u00fcphesiz Euro para biriminin\u00a0 gelece\u011fini netle\u015ftirecek g\u00f6z\u00fckmektedir. Euro b\u00f6lgesinde ki ekonomik dalgalaman\u0131n sadece Yunanistan ile kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok net g\u00f6r\u00fclmekle birlikte, \u00fcye \u00fclkelerin alacaklar\u0131 ekonomik mali tedbirler, \u00fcreitim ve istihdam politikalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde derin hasarlara yol\u00a0 a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Di\u011fer yandan, s\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikalar\u0131n uygulanamamas\u0131 faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine, ekonominin daha da kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden olabilir. G\u00fcvenli liman alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131 ise y\u0131l sonu 1500 &#8211; 1700 dolar\u0131 test edebilir. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7 \u015fudur ki, Euro b\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede toparlanmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmemekle birlikte, kurun gelecek aylarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3 ve 4. \u00e7eyrek, ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131,\u00a0 Euro b\u00f6lgesi \u00fcretim ve istihdam rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n test edildi\u011fi aylar olacakt\u0131r. Muhtemelen \u00fcretim ve istihdam kayb\u0131 beraberinde Euro b\u00f6lgesi W tipi reseyonu do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tarihler, 2007 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011finde, ABD\u2019de ba\u015flayan Mortgage krizi, \u00fczerine dolar da m\u00fcthi\u015f bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcm piyasalar, Mortgage tsunamisi ile \u00e7alkalan\u0131rken, euro,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":934,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2665\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}