{"id":2632,"date":"2011-07-12T10:07:02","date_gmt":"2011-07-12T07:07:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2632"},"modified":"2011-07-12T10:07:12","modified_gmt":"2011-07-12T07:07:12","slug":"para-politikasi-acisindan-tartisilmasi-gereken-konu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/para-politikasi-acisindan-tartisilmasi-gereken-konu\/","title":{"rendered":"Para Politikas\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 Gereken Konu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fma \u015fans\u0131 -hadi yok demeyeyim- \u00e7ok az.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-758268339\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir otoritenin (Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetim Kurumu\u2019nun-BDDK) deste\u011fi olmadan bir i\u015fe yaramayacak bir karar\u0131, bir ba\u015fka ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z otorite (Merkez Bankas\u0131-MB) alabilir ve di\u011ferinin ona uymas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebilir mi? Koordinasyonu kim yapacak? Koordinasyon yap\u0131ld\u0131 diyelim, uyum konusunda ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k nas\u0131l sa\u011flanacak? Ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, kendisinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olunan otorite (Hazine-bakan) sa\u011flayabilir mi? Sa\u011flarsa ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k kal\u0131r m\u0131? MB\u2019nin yeni politikalar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda tart\u0131\u015fmalar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Ama bu sorulara odaklan\u0131lm\u0131yor. Oysa bu sorular \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc BDDK\u2019nin deste\u011fi olmadan MB\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fma \u015fans\u0131 -hadi yok demeyeyim- \u00e7ok az. Nedenleri bir kez daha vurguluyorum:<\/p>\n<p>MB, al\u0131\u015f\u0131lageldik enflasyon hedeflemesinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olsa da enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etmedi. Aksine, her toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK), enflasyonun ileride alaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlere ili\u015fkin tahminlerle hedef aras\u0131ndaki farka at\u0131fla faiz kararlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, hem PPK \u00f6ncesi hem sonras\u0131nda televizyon, gazete ve finansal \u00e7evrelerde faiz kararlar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<br \/>\n\u0130ster al\u0131\u015fageldi\u011fimiz bi\u00e7imiyle olsun ister ba\u015fka bir bi\u00e7imde, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu: K\u0131sa vadeli para piyasas\u0131nda bankalar\u0131n kendi aralar\u0131nda yapt\u0131klar\u0131 i\u015flemler sonucunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan k\u0131sa vadeli faiz, PPK\u2019ce (MB\u2019ce) a\u00e7\u0131klanan haftal\u0131k politika faizine (repo faizine), \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir d\u00fczeyde olu\u015fmal\u0131. Olu\u015fmal\u0131 ki, politika faizi, piyasada belirlenen k\u0131sa vadeli faizler yoluyla daha uzun vadeli ve mevduat ve kredi faiz ile g\u00f6sterge Hazine tahvilinin faizini etkileyebilsin. Etkilemez ise ya da bu faizler politika faizinden sap\u0131yorlarsa para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi olmaz.<\/p>\n<p>PPK\u2019nin (MB\u2019nin) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faizin, k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa faizini belirlemesi \u2018s\u00fcng\u00fc g\u00fcc\u00fc\u2019yle olmuyor. K\u0131sa vadeli para piyasas\u0131nda, bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131 fazla ise ve bu fazlal\u0131k k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa faizini PPK\u2019ce a\u00e7\u0131klanan faizin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyorsa, MB bankalara bor\u00e7 para veriyor. Tersine, k\u0131sa vadeli para bol ise bankalar bu paray\u0131 satacak ba\u015fka banka bulmakta zorlan\u0131yor ve k\u0131sa vadeli faiz PPK\u2019ce belirlenen faizin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyorsa MB bankalardan bor\u00e7 al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir likidite s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 var. MB devreye girip bankalara k\u0131sa vadeli (haftal\u0131k) bor\u00e7 vermezse, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz PPK\u2019ce belirlenen faizin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak ve iki faiz farkl\u0131la\u015facak. Bu durumda, kendi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faizin anlam\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in MB\u2019nin bankalardan gelen bor\u00e7 para talebine cevap verip onlara bor\u00e7 vermesi gerekiyor.<br \/>\nMB zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131k\u00e7a bankalar toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ortalama vadesi 60 g\u00fcn dolaylar\u0131nda olan mevduat\u0131n giderek artan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 MB\u2019de tutmak zorunda. Kredi piyasas\u0131ndaki paylar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak istemiyorlarsa, MB\u2019nin onlar\u0131 bu yolla daha az kredi a\u00e7maya zorlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 yapabileceklerinden biri de MB\u2019den haftal\u0131k vadede bor\u00e7lan\u0131p, MB\u2019nin el koydu\u011fu mevduat\u0131 telafi etmek.<\/p>\n<p>7 Temmuz tarihli veriler h\u00e2l\u00e2 bankalar\u0131n bu \u2018telafi oyunu\u2019nu oynad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. MB, Ulus\u2019ta Kale\u2019ye bakan bir penceresinden bankalardan \u00e7ekti\u011fi paray\u0131, Gen\u00e7lik Park\u0131\u2019na bakan bir penceresinden bankalara vermek zorunda kal\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klr\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltilmesine kar\u015f\u0131n kredi arz\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 eski h\u0131z\u0131yla s\u00fcr\u00fcyor (Haziran sonu verileri b\u00f6yle diyor).<\/p>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131k ki bu durumda MB\u2019nin zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n kredi arz\u0131 \u00fczerinde bir etkisi olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, BDDK\u2019nin bankalar\u0131n haftal\u0131k vadede MB\u2019den bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131na \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r getirmesi gerekiyor.<br \/>\nBDDK\u2019nin son sermaye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltme karar\u0131 ve yeni kararlar almas\u0131 ve\/veya k\u00fcresel risklerin artmas\u0131, kredi arz\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkili olabilir. Ama dikkat: Bu kararlar ve geli\u015fmeler MB zaten hi\u00e7 zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k karar\u0131 almasa da etkili olabilecek kararlar. Yok, illa, MB\u2019nin kararlar\u0131n\u0131n bir anlam ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 arzulan\u0131yorsa (mesela MB\u2019nin sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla), yedinci maddede belirtti\u011fim karara benzer bir karar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu da yaz\u0131n\u0131n giri\u015findeki soruya getiriyor bizi. S\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fma \u015fans\u0131 -hadi yok demeyeyim- \u00e7ok az. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir otoritenin (Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetim Kurumu\u2019nun-BDDK) deste\u011fi olmadan bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2632\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}