{"id":2583,"date":"2011-07-11T09:43:49","date_gmt":"2011-07-11T06:43:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2583"},"modified":"2011-07-11T09:43:57","modified_gmt":"2011-07-11T06:43:57","slug":"abd-issizligi-uzdu-yemin-sevindirecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/abd-issizligi-uzdu-yemin-sevindirecek-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fi \u00dczd\u00fc, Yemin Sevindirecek mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019DE Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131md\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi piyasalarda hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0borsalarda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na neden oldu. 63.596 puandan kapanan \u0130MKB i\u00e7in 63.400 seviyesi \u00f6nemli. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na inilirse 61.995\u2019e kadar s\u00fcrecek bir \u2018d\u00fczeltme\u2019 ya\u015fanabilir. Yok e\u011fer piyasa, \u2018ABD verisi \u00f6nemli de\u011fil, CHP\u2019nin Meclis yemini \u00f6nemli\u2019 derse \u0130MKB\u2019de \u00f6nce 64.800 ve ard\u0131ndan da 65.850 seviyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali artacak. 1-2 haftadaki al\u0131mlar g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa bu ihtimal daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1093777769\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u2018tar\u0131md\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u2019 (Non-Farm Payroll-NFP) verisi ciddi bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131. \u00d6nce 90 ard\u0131ndan da 125 bine revize edilen beklentilere kar\u015f\u0131n Amerikan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ancak 18 binlik bir istihdam yaratabilmi\u015fti. Beklentilerin bu kadar gerisinde kalan \u201cyarat\u0131lan\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>i\u015f<\/strong><\/span>\u201d rakam\u0131, II. Bedava Para Paketi\u2019nin bitimiyle ABD\u2019de ekonominin bir kez daha t\u00f6kezleyip t\u00f6kezlemedi\u011fi sorular\u0131n\u0131 ak\u0131llara getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Onca paraya, onca s\u00fcbvansiyona ra\u011fmen en \u00f6nemli iki sorundan biri olan istihdama (di\u011feri de konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretemeyen ABD\u2019de Haziran sonundan bu yana y\u00fckselen hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131na ciddi bir sat\u0131\u015f geldi. Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z buna bir \u2018k\u00e2r realizasyonu\u2019\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><span><strong>da<\/strong><\/span>diyebiliriz. NFP bu kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc gelmemi\u015f olsayd\u0131 da bir \u015fey bulunacakt\u0131 k\u00e2r realizasyonu i\u00e7in!<\/p>\n<p>27 Haziran\u2019dan ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar y\u00fczde 6.8 y\u00fckselen (Fed faizlerinin y\u00fczde 0.25 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131r\u0131m!) Dow Jones\u2019ta b\u00f6ylesi bir d\u00fczeltme normal kar\u015f\u0131lanmal\u0131. \u00c7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ciddi bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p><strong>ABD\u2019de bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As\u0131l mesele bu hafta ve sonras\u0131nda ne olaca\u011f\u0131&#8230; Bug\u00fcnden ba\u015flayarak ABD\u2019de Alcoa ile birlikte II. \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Reuters\u2019\u0131n haber yorumuna g\u00f6re, S&amp;P 500\u2019deki \u015firketlerin gelirlerinin ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 7.3 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla beklentilerden de iyi gelecek k\u00e2rlar. Neden mi? Son bir ayda beklentiler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi\u011finden dolay\u0131. Hatta Google gibi baz\u0131lar\u0131 daha fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildiklerinden dolay\u0131 borsalar\u0131 \u015fimdiden k\u00f6t\u00fc etkilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131lar bile. Yine de beklentilerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi\u011fi i\u00e7in, gelecek rakamlar\u0131n bir \u00e7o\u011fu \u201cbeklentilerden daha iyi\u201d denerek borsalar\u0131 yukar\u0131 g\u00f6t\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lacakt\u0131r! Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olacaklar m\u0131? Bence \u015fanslar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Neden derseniz, ABD borsalar\u0131nda S&amp;P 500 grafi\u011finde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere \u201comuz-ba\u015f-omuz\u201d tarz\u0131 bir yap\u0131 olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131!<\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 baz\u0131nda 2 May\u0131s\u2019taki 1.370 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 bu formasyonu bozacak, 1.380 seviyesine kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilecek (ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Cuma\u2019n\u0131n kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 1.335) yeni zirvelerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acakt\u0131r! Ben bu ihtimalin NFP sonras\u0131nda azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bilan\u00e7olarla birlikte bir s\u00fcre piyasalar\u0131n pozitif bir seyir izleme \u00e7abas\u0131 i\u00e7inde olsalar da sonras\u0131nda ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n gerileyece\u011fini, bu hafta sonuna do\u011fru ya da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda S&amp;P 500\u2019de 1.295 seviyesine do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6ylesi bir hareket ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta teknik seviyelerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olan euro\/dolar paritesini bu hafta i\u00e7inde daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviyelere indirecektir. 1.4325 seviyesi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta kritikti. Haftal\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f 1.4230 ile bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda oldu! Bu haftan\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nce 1.4150, ard\u0131ndan da 1.4040-70 seviyesinin g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali hayli y\u00fcksek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1018195761\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>S\u0131rf paritedeki harekete bakarak dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131nda da yeniden 1.64\u2019l\u00fc seviyelere \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Hem yaz d\u00f6neminde olmam\u0131z hem de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bahsedece\u011fim i\u00e7 siyasi fakt\u00f6rlerden dolay\u0131 kurlar\u0131n daha yukar\u0131 gitme ihtimali \u015fimdilik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ola ki \u015fu veya bu sebeple 1.6450\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lacak olur ise 1.6570 seviyesi ilk hedef. Sonras\u0131 m\u0131? Sonras\u0131na b\u00f6ylesi bir hareket ya\u015fanacak olur ise hafta i\u00e7inde mutlaka yazar\u0131m&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00f6zler CHP yemininde<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta i\u00e7inde hem kurlar\u0131 hem de borsay\u0131 etkileyebilecek en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r i\u00e7 siyasi geli\u015fmeler olaca\u011fa benziyor. Bug\u00fcn CHP\u2019nin Meclis\u2019te yemin etme ihtimali var. B\u00f6ylesi bir ad\u0131m, hem Meclis\u2019in daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 hem de \u2018mutabakat zemininin\u2019 olu\u015fmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. Di\u011fer yandan Abdullah \u00d6calan\u2019a atfedilen BDP\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik \u2018Ben devletle anla\u015ft\u0131m, siz de h\u00fck\u00fcmetle anla\u015f\u0131n\u2019 s\u00f6ylemi; her ne akdar \u015fartlar\u0131 ve \u2018ne pahas\u0131na oldu\u011fu\u2019 hen\u00fcz daha ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015f olsa da; toplumsal bar\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli s\u00f6ylemler!<\/p>\n<p>Bu geli\u015fmeler \u201cNas\u0131lsa b\u00f6yle olacakt\u0131\u201d diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 belki \u00e7ok fazla etkilemeyecek. Ancak yerli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kendilerini daha \u201cemniyette\u201d hissetmeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli. NFP Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bizim piyasalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 da etkiledi! 64.427\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131kan (k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in 64.150\u2019den ge\u00e7en 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu) \u0130MKB 100 Endeksi, 63.596\u2019dan kapand\u0131! Haftan\u0131n ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnde 63.400 seviyesi \u00f6nemli. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na inilecek olur ise 61.995\u2019e kadar s\u00fcrebilecek bir \u201cd\u00fczeltme hareketi\u201d ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131nabilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3260787598\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yok e\u011fer piyasa; NFP \u00f6nemli de\u011fildi, bizdeki \u201cyemin meselesinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi\u201d daha \u00f6nemliydi derse; o zaman da \u0130MKB\u2019de \u00f6nce 64.800 ve ard\u0131ndan da 65.850 seviyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclme ihtimali artacakt\u0131r. Son 1-2 haftadaki al\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alacak olursak bu ihtimalin daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir! Uyarmakta fayda var: Teknik olarak ikinci seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fimdilik zor olacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019DE Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131md\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi piyasalarda hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u00a0ve\u00a0borsalarda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na neden oldu. 63.596 puandan kapanan \u0130MKB i\u00e7in 63.400 seviyesi \u00f6nemli. Bu seviyenin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2583"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2583\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}