{"id":258,"date":"2011-05-12T22:16:33","date_gmt":"2011-05-12T19:16:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=258"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:50:07","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:50:07","slug":"cari-acik-secim-beklemez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/cari-acik-secim-beklemez\/","title":{"rendered":"Cari a\u00e7\u0131k se\u00e7im beklemez!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn Mart ay\u0131na ait cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131 9.8 milyar dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Piyasa beklentisi 8.2 milyar dolard\u0131. Beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde gelen Mart ay\u0131 rakam\u0131ndan sonra 12 ayl\u0131k bazdaki toplam cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u015eubat\u2019taki 55 milyar dolardan, Mart\u2019ta 60.5 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4251376630\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tahminlerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde gelen cari a\u00e7\u0131kta enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 5 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 kadar do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m giderlerindeki art\u0131\u015f da dikkat \u00e7ekiciydi.<\/p>\n<p>Her\u015fey \u201cnormal\u201d devam etse de Nisan ve May\u0131s aylar\u0131nda artan k\u00e2r transferleriyle birlikte y\u0131l sonu tahminleri; 65 milyar dolardan, 70 milyar dolar ve \u00fczerine revize edilecektir! Bu ihtimal d\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131 gerdi! Dolar\/TL 1.5850\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, \u0130MKB y\u00fczde 2.40 de\u011fer kaybetti!<br \/>\nPiyasalar nas\u0131l gerilmesin? Orta Vadeli Program hedefine g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l sonu Gayri Safi Milli Has\u0131la (GSMH) tahmini 780 milyar dolar. 70 milyar dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSMH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8.9\u2019a denk geliyor. 1994 ve 2001 krizlerinin cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/GSMH oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019lere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla patlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlay\u0131nca bu oran\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n<p>Belli ki Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k artt\u0131rma\/faiz indirme\u2019 \u015feklindeki \u201cpolitika karma\u015fas\u0131\u201d istenen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 vermiyor. Hem kredilerdeki hem de cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015f devam ediyor, devam edece\u011fe de benziyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla 25 May\u0131s\u2019taki toplant\u0131dan da zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelecek.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Peki i\u015fe yarayacak m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Nas\u0131l ki son art\u0131\u015flar i\u015fe yaramad\u0131, yenilerinin yaramas\u0131 da hayli zor. Zira para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n mutlaka maliye politikalar\u0131yla da desteklenmesi gerekiyor. Nedir mali politika \u00f6nlemleri? KKDF v.b. gibi vergilerin artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ya da torba yasa gibi \u201cgelir artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131\u201d \u00f6nlemlerden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor. En az\u0131ndan para politikas\u0131nda at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n maliye politikalar\u0131yla da desteklenmesi gerekiyor. Ancak se\u00e7im sath-\u0131 mahalline girilmi\u015f olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet hi\u00e7 de oral\u0131 de\u011fil. Se\u00e7im var diye s\u0131radan vatanda\u015f\u0131 rahats\u0131z edebilecek \u00f6nlemleri almaktan imtina ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7? Kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali herge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artan bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k, kontrol edilmekte zorlan\u0131lan GSMH ve de kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Bindik bir alamete umar\u0131m gitmiyoruzdur k\u0131yamete&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1267388999\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn Mart ay\u0131na ait cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131 9.8 milyar dolar olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Piyasa beklentisi 8.2 milyar dolard\u0131. Beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde gelen Mart ay\u0131 rakam\u0131ndan sonra&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}