{"id":25637,"date":"2013-06-13T09:36:13","date_gmt":"2013-06-13T07:36:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=25637"},"modified":"2013-06-13T09:46:53","modified_gmt":"2013-06-13T07:46:53","slug":"issizlik-artis-trendine-girebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/issizlik-artis-trendine-girebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130\u015fsizlik Art\u0131\u015f Trendine Girebilir"},"content":{"rendered":"
Hafta i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi piyasa beklentisi olan % 2,2\u2019 nin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde % 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek, 2012 senesinin son \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 ile\u00a0 2012 senesinin tamam\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f kaydetmi\u015fti. Mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nm\u0131\u015f birinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z\u00a0 \u00e7eyrek baz da y\u00fczde 1,6 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ancak, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin detaylar\u0131n\u0131 inceledi\u011fimizde, i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki aylarda y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi riski devam ediyor. \u0130\u00e7 talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 3 olurken, kamu harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 7,2 art\u0131\u015f kaydetmi\u015f. 2013 ilk \u00e7eyrek\u00a0 sanayi \u00fcretim ortalamas\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 1,3, \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da ki art\u0131\u015f ise y\u00fczde 0,2. Mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131 ge\u00e7en seneye g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda azalarak % 3,4 seviyelerine gerilemi\u015f, ithalat da ise art\u0131\u015f Ocak ay\u0131ndan beri devam ediyor. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ise, % 8,2. Yukar\u0131da ki rakamlar\u0131n bize anlatmak istedi\u011fi asl\u0131nda, d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakamlar\u0131nda, ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ihracat\u0131n pozitif katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131nda ki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talebin % 3 artmas\u0131 nedeni ile,\u00a0 2013 senesi ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak\u00a0 i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Sekt\u00f6rel bazda b\u00fcy\u00fcme art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 inceledi\u011fimizde ise, Turizm, Mali arac\u0131 kurumlar, ve \u0130n\u015faat gibi\u00a0 hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yine a\u00e7\u0131k ara\u00a0 \u00f6nde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrkiye’ de istihdam\u0131n sekt\u00f6rel da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 inceledi\u011fimizde istihdam edilenlerin % 22,5’i tar\u0131m, % 19,9\u2019 u sanayi, % 6,2\u2019si in\u015faat, % 51,3′ \u00fc ise hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde yer almaya devam ediyor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde en y\u00fcksek sekt\u00f6rel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, muhtemelen hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden beslenen ve emek verimlili\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir istihdam yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki aylarda ise, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde beklenen iyile\u015fmenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi, do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n giri\u015f yapmamas\u0131 durumunda, T\u00fcrkiye y\u0131l sonunda\u00a0 % 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefini i\u00e7 talep ile kar\u015f\u0131layabilir ancak bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli ile\u00a0\u00a0 i\u015fsizlik artmaya devam edebilir.<\/p>