{"id":25444,"date":"2013-06-07T07:46:28","date_gmt":"2013-06-07T05:46:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=25444"},"modified":"2013-06-07T07:48:23","modified_gmt":"2013-06-07T05:48:23","slug":"seans-oncesi-borsa-da-geziniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-oncesi-borsa-da-geziniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u00d6ncesi&#8230; Borsa da Gezi&#8217;niyor&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn ikinci art\u00e7\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131k. Olanlar malum. Endeks en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 73 bini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Halbuki g\u00fcne 80 bine yak\u0131n seviyelerden ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fcn tepe ile dip aras\u0131nda 6700 puanl\u0131k hareket oldu. \u0130ki saat \u00fcst \u00fcste i\u015flem miktar\u0131 200 milyon lotu ge\u00e7ti. Bu t\u00fcr bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 ABD&#8217;nin notu d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olmu\u015ftu. \u0130ki saat ard\u0131 ard\u0131na \u00a0bu yo\u011funlukta sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ok nadir bir olayd\u0131r. \u00a0A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011fin ilk kadran\u0131nda i\u015flem miktar\u0131 bulunuyor. Alt kadranda ise i\u015flem hacmi (parasal) veriliyor. \u0130ki saatte 2 milyar TL tutar\u0131nda hacmi de g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3482316531\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-7-haziran.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-25445\" alt=\"endeks-7-haziran\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-7-haziran.png\" width=\"428\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-7-haziran.png 428w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-7-haziran-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 428px) 100vw, 428px\" \/><\/a>G\u00fcnl\u00fck bazda i\u015flem hacmi 4.52 milyar TL olurken, hisse say\u0131s\u0131 baz\u0131nda 800 milyon lot hacim g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6zellikle de say\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan&#8217;\u0131n Tunus&#8217;tan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n gerginli\u011fi azaltmayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, piyasalarda neredeyse pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc kadar bir sars\u0131nt\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Asl\u0131nda bu t\u00fcr zamanlar (yani i\u015flem miktar\u0131n\u0131n rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamanlar) ister piyasa y\u00fckselirken isterse d\u00fc\u015ferken olsun, panikleri yans\u0131t\u0131r. Piyasa y\u00fckselirken bu t\u00fcr bir y\u00fcksek al\u0131m-sat\u0131m miktar\u0131 daha \u00f6nce al\u0131m yapmam\u0131\u015f olup, panikle al\u0131ma ge\u00e7enleri g\u00f6sterirken, sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f zamanlar\u0131nda da, beklentilerin en k\u00f6t\u00fc duruma geldi\u011fi ve herkesin panik sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti\u011fi yerdir. Yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda zaman zaman vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fczere &#8220;kuyru\u011fa girilmez.&#8221; Herkes sat\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in kuyru\u011fa ge\u00e7mi\u015fse al\u0131m cephesinde olmak, herkes al\u0131m i\u00e7in kuyru\u011fa girmi\u015fse sat\u0131\u015f cephesinde olmak yani contrarian (tersine) \u00a0yat\u0131r\u0131m stratejisi ge\u00e7erlidir. Endeksin \u00f6nemli d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerleri ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakarak inceledi\u011fimizde istatistikler, tepe veya dip d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinde i\u015flem miktar\u0131n\u0131n rekorlar k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fcn bu i\u015flemler olurken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara elimden geldi\u011fince twitter&#8217;dan mesajlar ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. 78.500 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirttim ama 75 binin alt\u0131na geldi\u011finde de 100 liram\u0131n 35 liras\u0131na al\u0131m yapt\u0131m diyerek, sembolik olarak art\u0131k sat\u0131\u015ftan uzak durulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131m. Daha sonra da 73.500&#8217;de ike 25 liral\u0131k daha al\u0131m yap\u0131yorum mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6nderdim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc istatistik bunu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyordu. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde iki \u00f6rnek veriyorum;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-moodys-20eylul.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-25446\" alt=\"endeks-moodys-20eylul\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-moodys-20eylul.png\" width=\"428\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-moodys-20eylul.png 428w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-moodys-20eylul-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 428px) 100vw, 428px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bu grafikte 20 Eyl\u00fcl 2011&#8217;de Moodys notumuzu art\u0131r\u0131yor. 1 saatte 400 milyon lot ve 1.5 milyar TL i\u015flem hacmi oluyor. O g\u00fcn herkesin panik al\u0131ma ge\u00e7ti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn. Ertesi g\u00fcn biraz daha y\u00fckseli\u015f var ama sonras\u0131 tam tersi bir geli\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tepede olu\u015fan y\u00fcksek i\u015flem sonras\u0131nda, k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-sp-abd-agustos211.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-25447\" alt=\"endeks-sp-abd-agustos211\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-sp-abd-agustos211.png\" width=\"428\" height=\"296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-sp-abd-agustos211.png 428w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/endeks-sp-abd-agustos211-300x207.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 428px) 100vw, 428px\" \/><\/a>Bu grafikte de ABD&#8217;nin kredi notu S&amp;P taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. endeks 62.500&#8217;den 10 bin puan gerileyip 52.500&#8217;e geldikten sonra panik sat\u0131\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131yor ve Saatlik i\u015flem miktar\u0131 200 milyon lota ula\u015f\u0131rken, hacim 600 milyon TL oluyor. Dikkat ederseniz daha sonra da 200 milyon lota yak\u0131n i\u015flem ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken bu sefer borsa 50 binden 52.500&#8217;e tekrar y\u00fckseliyor. Ard\u0131ndan yeniden gerileme var. 50 bin civar\u0131 ikinci dip olduktan sonra borsa y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7iyor ve bundan sonra da bir daha 50 binin alt\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden endeks izleyen iki y\u0131lda 93 bine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00a0Biz als\u0131nda d\u00fcnk\u00fc hareketlerde endeksin 73 bine geriledi\u011fini ve kapan\u0131\u015fta 3 bin puan yukar\u0131da 76 bin civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te hafta sonu riskini almak istemeyecek olanlar bug\u00fcn yeniden sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7erek ikinci dip testi yapabilirler ama hacim patlamas\u0131 olmu\u015ftur ve 93 binden ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn dibe yak\u0131n yerlerindeyiz. \u00a0Bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te hala 73 bin veya bunun 1-2 bin puan alt\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. \u00a0Bu t\u00fcr durumlar en az bir iki ya vadeli al\u0131m i\u00e7in bana g\u00f6re \u00e7ok iyi al\u0131m yerleri sunar. Bu y\u00fczden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu a\u015famadan sonra \u00a0gelecek sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar\u0131nda panik yapmazlarsa, Haziran sonuna veya temmuz ortalar\u0131na kadar kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilirler.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn ak\u015fam Say\u0131n Ba\u015fbakan&#8217;\u0131n havaalan\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmay\u0131 bug\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131n nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Ama mesajlar bana g\u00f6re pozitif de\u011fildi. Piyasalar bir s\u00fcre daha sert dalgalanmalar ya\u015fayabilir. Sab\u0131rla en az 2-3 hafta beklemeniz sizin yarar\u0131n\u0131za olacakt\u0131r diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Sa\u011fduyu eninde sonunda galip gelecektir. Bu arada endekste yeni t\u00fcrb\u00fclanslar da olabilecektir. Bir hafta i\u00e7inde 70 binin alt\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmezse, art\u0131k 70-75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni dip seviyeler olur. Fakat \u00a0yine de her yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kendine ait stratejisi ve bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 vard\u0131r. Ben kendi fikirlerimi olabildi\u011fince \u015feffaf bir \u015fekilde sizlerle payla\u015ft\u0131m. Bana telefon a\u00e7\u0131p fikrimi soranlara ne s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorsam sizlere de ayn\u0131s\u0131 yazd\u0131m. B\u00fct\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerim k\u0131sa vadede yanl\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131kabilir ama bilgim ancak bu kadar analiz yapmama elveriyor. Herkes kendi karar\u0131n\u0131 kendi olu\u015fturmal\u0131d\u0131r. Sa\u011fl\u0131cakla kal\u0131n, herkese bol kazan\u00e7lar diliyorum.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn ikinci art\u00e7\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131k. Olanlar malum. Endeks en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 73 bini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Halbuki g\u00fcne 80 bine yak\u0131n seviyelerden ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fcn tepe ile dip aras\u0131nda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":24758,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25444","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25444"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25444\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}