{"id":25192,"date":"2013-05-29T11:19:25","date_gmt":"2013-05-29T09:19:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=25192"},"modified":"2013-05-29T11:19:35","modified_gmt":"2013-05-29T09:19:35","slug":"kuresel-ekonomide-likidite-abd-ye-ucuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kuresel-ekonomide-likidite-abd-ye-ucuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel Ekonomide Likidite ABD&#8217; ye U\u00e7uyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>FED\u2019in ge\u00e7en hafta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131, parasal geni\u015flemeyi sonbahara do\u011fru azalt\u0131labilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada oldu\u011fu gibi, T\u00fcrk piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da etkilemeye devam ediyor. \u015eu an\u00a0 g\u00f6sterge tahvilin faizi 5,28%\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. \u0130\u00e7 Piyasada Dolar \/ TL ise 1,86 band\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, 1,90\u2019a do\u011fru ilerliyor.\u00a0 Mevduat da ki erime ile Borsada ki kar realizasyonu\u2019nun d\u00f6vize kaymas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel piyasalarda Dolar\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesi,\u00a0 orta ve uzun vadede T\u00dcFE\u2019yi\u00a0 ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 derinden etkileyebilir. <b>Bu durumda ,MB\u2019nin politika faizinde art\u0131\u015f yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve d\u00f6vize m\u00fcdahale etmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece ki \u015fu an b\u00f6yle bir beklenti art\u0131k yok, bu durumda negatif reel faiz \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki aylarda devam edecek olup,\u00a0 faiz \u2013 enflasyon makas\u0131 biraz daha a\u00e7\u0131lacakt\u0131r.\u00a0 <\/b><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1733001544\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ancak \u015funu da unutmamak gerekir ki, bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrk Toplumunun tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesinde, mevduat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6nemi vard\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla,\u00a0 faizlerde ki gerilemenin etkisi ile net reel getirinin enflasyonun %6,13 oran\u0131nda hareket etmesi\u00a0 nedeni ile negatif olmas\u0131 banka TL mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6vize kaymas\u0131na neden olmaktad\u0131r. Not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131, BIST de yukar\u0131 beklentilerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, paran\u0131n hisse yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na gitmesini engellemektedir. Bu durumda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde ki aylarda, Banka tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131n Dolara ve Alt\u0131na kaymas\u0131na \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Esas s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ise negatif reel faizin, tasarruflar\u0131 geriletmesinden dolay\u0131, mevcut b\u00fcy\u00fcme, sadece i\u00e7 talep eksenli oldu\u011funda ki 2013 ilk \u00e7eyrek ve \u015fu an ki ikinci \u00e7eyrek de i\u00e7 talep katk\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ediyoruz ve d\u0131\u015f talebin hi\u00e7 katk\u0131 yaratmamas\u0131 durumunda ki \u015fu an d\u0131\u015f talep negatif katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor sonu\u00e7 olarak cari a\u00e7\u0131k bir miktar y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flar ve \u00f6demeler dengesinin\u00a0 finansman kalitesi de sadece portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleri ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde, do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gelmemesi durumunda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 artmaya ba\u015flar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile faizlerin uzun bir s\u00fcre negatif seyretmesi, tasarruflar\u0131n gerilemesi, orta ve uzun vadede cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman sorununu tekrar\u00a0 g\u00fcndeme getirece\u011finden, 2013 senesinde % 5 \u2013 6 gibi y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131na ula\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, %4\u2019e yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ile, 2013 senesini kapatabilece\u011fimizi unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Dr. \u0130smet DEM\u0130RKOL<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FED\u2019in ge\u00e7en hafta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131, parasal geni\u015flemeyi sonbahara do\u011fru azalt\u0131labilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada oldu\u011fu gibi, T\u00fcrk piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da etkilemeye devam ediyor. \u015eu an\u00a0 g\u00f6sterge&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":24594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25192\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}