{"id":2482,"date":"2011-07-07T09:39:40","date_gmt":"2011-07-07T06:39:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2482"},"modified":"2011-07-07T09:39:47","modified_gmt":"2011-07-07T06:39:47","slug":"berber-fiyatlari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/berber-fiyatlari\/","title":{"rendered":"Berber Fiyatlar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sal\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131n sonu: \u201cEnflasyondaki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f korkutucu mu? Yerim bitti; bu ilgin\u00e7 konuya devam edece\u011fim.\u201d Servet Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m NTV\u2019de bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc okuyunca Mahfi E\u011filmez \u201cAsaf her\u00a0<span><strong>zaman<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc tutam\u0131yor\u201d dedi. Elimi ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-552916218\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn bu noktas\u0131nda enflasyonun seyri iktisat politikas\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nem kazand\u0131. Son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok vurgulad\u0131k. \u0130ki\u00a0<span><strong>farkl\u0131<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u201ctarz-\u0131 iktisat\u201d \u00e7eki\u015fiyor. \u201cS\u0131cak parac\u0131lar\u201d faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 istiyor. \u201cKurcular\u201d kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Tart\u0131\u015fma \u201c\u0131s\u0131nma\u201d kavram\u0131 \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130lkine g\u00f6re ekonomi fazla \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131. Enflasyon riskli d\u00fczeylere gidiyor. Bir an \u00f6nce faiz artmal\u0131, b\u00fct\u00e7e s\u0131k\u0131lmal\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmelidir. Yoksa TL\u2019ye sald\u0131r\u0131 olur, kur kopar\u00a0<span><strong>gider<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisine g\u00f6re ekonomide \u0131s\u0131nma yok. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n nedeni kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurudur. Enflasyon riski azd\u0131r. Faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmal\u0131, b\u00fct\u00e7e s\u0131k\u0131lmamal\u0131, d\u00fczeltme d\u00f6viz kuruna b\u0131rak\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Parantez a\u00e7al\u0131m: The Economist\u00a0<span><strong>ilk<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Maliyetsiz fiyat<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile olay d\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015f\u0131p enflasyonu belirleyen dinamiklerin do\u011fru \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesine geliyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc\u00a0<span><strong>para<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0politikas\u0131 enflasyondaki gidi\u015fata g\u00f6re saptan\u0131yor. Y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi varsa para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131yor. Aksi halde gev\u015fetiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6rnek: Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fini zannetti. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kt\u0131. Sonradan enflasyon tehlikesi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ama o arada ekonomi yava\u015flad\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik artt\u0131. Yani \u00f6l\u00e7me hatas\u0131n\u0131n bedelini reel ekonomi \u00f6dedi.<\/p>\n<p>Sorunu yaratan t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 endeksinin T\u00dcFE asl\u0131nda bir ge\u00e7inme \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc (ya\u015fam maliyeti) olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ba\u015ftan o ama\u00e7la tasarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na bakar. Maliyet ve talep k\u00f6kenleri aras\u0131nda ay\u0131r\u0131m yapmaz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-146584901\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Halbuki para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ayr\u0131m kritiktir. Bir: Maliyetin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc (petrol fiyat\u0131, d\u00f6viz kuru vs.) i\u00e7 talep ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan etkilenmez. \u0130ki: Talep enflasyonu maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmadan da \u00fcreticinin fiyat\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi demektir. Literat\u00fcrde \u201cfiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131\u201d deniyor. Bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm girdi maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (hatta s\u0131f\u0131r) sekt\u00f6rlere bakmakt\u0131r. Kira kalemi kritere tam uyuyor. Genellikle hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde girdi maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olur. Ben bu ama\u00e7la her ay berber fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 izliyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Berberden al haberi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Neden berber fiyatlar\u0131? \u00dccretli istihdam\u0131 azd\u0131r. \u00c7o\u011funda mal sahibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Maliyet elektrik, su, \u015fampuan vs. ile d\u00fckk\u00e2n kiras\u0131ndan ibarettir. Fiyat\u0131n\u0131 saptarken berber sadece arz-talep dengesini g\u00f6zetir. O nedenle talep bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n iyi bir g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n<p>2005\u2019ten bu yana erkek ve kad\u0131n berber fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. \u0130stanbul\u2019un a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131yorum (y\u00fczde 70 kad\u0131n). Grafikte y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi T\u00dcFE ile (s\u00fctunlar) kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Dikey ekseni enflasyon hedefini temsilen y\u00fczde 6\u2019da kestim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3914877818\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Berber fiyatlar\u0131 iki d\u00f6nemde T\u00dcFE\u2019den h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor. 2006\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00dcFE\u2019nin iki-\u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor. 2007-09 d\u00f6neminde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da kal\u0131yor. 2010\u2019da tekrar t\u0131rman\u0131yor. Fakat 2011\u2019de y\u00fczde 6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na (haziranda y\u00fczde 4,2) geriliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Laf\u0131 uzatmayal\u0131m. Berber fiyatlar\u0131 kiralarla uyumlu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130kisi de h\u00e2len fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon hedefi ile tutarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Velhas\u0131l \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nma\u201d tezi havada kal\u0131yor. Devam edece\u011fim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sal\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131n sonu: \u201cEnflasyondaki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f korkutucu mu? Yerim bitti; bu ilgin\u00e7 konuya devam edece\u011fim.\u201d Servet Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m NTV\u2019de bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc okuyunca Mahfi E\u011filmez \u201cAsaf her\u00a0zaman\u00a0s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc tutam\u0131yor\u201d&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2482\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}