{"id":247,"date":"2011-05-17T22:12:33","date_gmt":"2011-05-17T19:12:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=247"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:49:41","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:49:41","slug":"turkiye-bir-sure-daha-yuksek-cari-acigi-tasiyabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/turkiye-bir-sure-daha-yuksek-cari-acigi-tasiyabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye, Bir S\u00fcre Daha Y\u00fcksek Cari A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ta\u015f\u0131yabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00fcss\u00fc olabilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fc Arap isyanlar\u0131 sayesinde daha fazla a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-639642481\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Arap isyanlar\u0131 bitecek gibi durmuyor. \u0130syan dalga dalga yay\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu arada \u00fclkeden \u00fclkeye sanki az\u0131c\u0131k da karakter de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Tunus ve M\u0131s\u0131r ba\u015fkayd\u0131, Libya bamba\u015fka oldu, Yemen ve Bahreyn ise ne birbirine ne de \u00f6tekilere benziyor. T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakarsan\u0131z ortada k\u0131sa vadeli bir dizi risk bulunuyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeyle ticari ili\u015fkilerine bunlara daha \u00f6nce de\u011findi\u011fimi hat\u0131rl\u0131yorum. Hatta b\u00fct\u00fcn bu olup biteni giderek ikaz i\u015faretleri veren cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimi ve de \u201ckemerleri ba\u011flayal\u0131m l\u00fctfen\u201d diye yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 da unutmu\u015f de\u011filim. Bug\u00fcnlerde Arap isyanlar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir pozitif y\u00f6n\u00fc de olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131m: T\u00fcrkiye bu isyanlar sayesinde bir s\u00fcre daha daha y\u00fcksek bir cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha kolay ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Gelin bak\u0131n, Arap isyanlar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye sundu\u011fu f\u0131rsat nas\u0131ld\u0131r?<\/p>\n<p><strong>M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n durumu <\/strong><br \/>\n21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lamayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Biz i\u015fi AB s\u00fcrecine ba\u011flamay\u0131 tercih ediyorduk. 21. Y\u00fczy\u0131l M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130ki \u00fclkeyi k\u0131yaslarsak, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda her iki \u00fclke de, ayn\u0131 seviyelerde, y\u0131ll\u0131k, 1 milyar dolar mertebesinde yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m al\u0131yordu. Sonra uluslararas\u0131 ortam daha bir m\u00fcsamahak\u00e2r oldu. Her iki \u00fclke de yat\u0131r\u0131m tutarlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131lar. T\u00fcrkiye, krizden hemen \u00f6nce, 2007\u2019de, y\u0131ll\u0131k 20 milyar dolardan fazla do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7ekmi\u015fti, M\u0131s\u0131r 10 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hat\u0131rlay\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r Citibank raporundaki 3G \u00fclkelerinden biriydi, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru olacak \u00fclkelerden biri yani.<br \/>\nPeki, buradan ne \u00e7\u0131kar? \u00d6ncelikle ak\u0131lda tutulmas\u0131 gereken nokta galiba \u015fudur. M\u0131s\u0131r, en az 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in, bir ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fclkesi konumundad\u0131r. Yeni rejimin oturmas\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde olmayacakt\u0131r. Daha \u00f6nce yazd\u0131m: T\u00fcrkiye, 1950\u2019li y\u0131llarda, yeni rejimde muhalefet partisi lideri olup, yeni rejimin oturmas\u0131na do\u011frudan destek olan bir \u201cmilli \u015fef\u201de sahip olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de eski rejimden yeni rejime ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcresi fas\u0131lalarla devam etmi\u015f ve uzun s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Rahmetli \u0130smet \u0130n\u00f6n\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye daha do\u011fru d\u00fcr\u00fcst anlayabilmi\u015f ve de takdir edebilmi\u015f de\u011fildir. Takdir edebildi\u011fi g\u00fcn normalle\u015fmi\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Bu M\u0131s\u0131r \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken ak\u0131lda tutulmas\u0131 gereken ilk noktad\u0131r. M\u0131s\u0131r iyi \u00f6rnektir. Libya ve Suriye \u00e7ok daha zordur.<br \/>\nPeki, bu durumda M\u0131s\u0131r \u00f6rne\u011fi \u00fczerinden gidersek ne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz? Benim akl\u0131ma bir s\u00fcreden beri tak\u0131lan mesele \u015fudur: M\u0131s\u0131r, ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinde, eskiye g\u00f6re, daha az, tasarruf \u00e7eken bir \u00fclke olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc art\u0131k daha risklidir. En az\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n resmini b\u00f6yle beklemek gerekir. Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkelerinden sonra M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131 da bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, bir nevi, bizim i\u00e7in, \u2018tasarruf fazlas\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler\u2019 aras\u0131na eklemek gerekecektir. M\u0131s\u0131r eskiden oldu\u011fu kadar \u00e7ok yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7ekemeyecektir. En az\u0131ndan bir sular\u0131n durulmas\u0131 gerekecektir. Bu da ikinci tespittir.<br \/>\nBunun T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iki adet olumlu sonucu olabilir. Bunlardan ilki, genel ge\u00e7erdir. T\u00fcrkiye, daha y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 daha rahat finanse edebilece\u011fi bir iktisadi konjonkt\u00fcr i\u00e7inde olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7evre \u00fclkelerin de\u011fi\u015fen dengeleri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin daha b\u00fcy\u00fck cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 finanse edebilmesine imk\u00e2n sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Neden? Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin finansal krizi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden ve de Arap isyanlar\u0131 nedeniyle. Her ikisi de yak\u0131n co\u011frayam\u0131zda tasarruf fazlas\u0131na neden olmaktad\u0131r. \u0130kinci olumlu sonu\u00e7 ise, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00fcss\u00fc olabilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn Arap isyanlar\u0131 sayesinde daha fazla a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu, \u015fu demektir: T\u00fcrkiye, konjonkt\u00fcrel nedenlerle hem daha y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorunsuz ta\u015f\u0131yabilir hem de bunun finansman\u0131n\u0131 daha sa\u011flam kaynaklarla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilir.<br \/>\nVaziyet f\u0131kradaki gibidir: Su bask\u0131n\u0131ndan korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan t\u00fcm telkinlere kulak t\u0131kayan papaz, \u00f6teki tarafta, Yarat\u0131c\u0131ya sitem etti\u011finde \u201c\u00d6nce kiliseyi bo\u015falt diye birilerini g\u00f6nderdim, dinlemedin. Sonra bir helikopter g\u00f6nderdim, binmedin. En son bir kay\u0131k ile yard\u0131m etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m, reddettin. Ben daha sana ne yapayd\u0131m?\u201d cevab\u0131n\u0131 bo\u015funa alm\u0131\u015f de\u011fildir.<br \/>\nBu konjonkt\u00fcrel bir f\u0131rsatt\u0131r. F\u0131rsat ancak haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in manal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00fcss\u00fc olabilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fc Arap isyanlar\u0131 sayesinde daha fazla a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Arap isyanlar\u0131 bitecek gibi durmuyor. \u0130syan dalga dalga yay\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu arada&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=247"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/247\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}