{"id":2434,"date":"2011-07-06T10:03:04","date_gmt":"2011-07-06T07:03:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2434"},"modified":"2011-07-06T10:03:13","modified_gmt":"2011-07-06T07:03:13","slug":"potansiyel-buyume-hizi-degisti-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/potansiyel-buyume-hizi-degisti-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Potansiyel B\u00fcy\u00fcme H\u0131z\u0131 De\u011fi\u015fti mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Diziye ara verip g\u00fcncele d\u00f6n\u00fcyorum. Grafik 1&#8217;de 2007&#8217;nin son \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSYH&#8217;nin) hareketleri var. Kolay okunsun diye 2008&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki GSYH de\u011feri 100 olacak \u015fekilde t\u00fcm di\u011fer verileri endeks haline getirdim. 2008&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finin \u00f6zelli\u011fi, k\u00fcresel krizden \u00f6nceki en y\u00fcksek GSYH de\u011ferine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eyrek y\u0131l olmas\u0131. Grafik 2&#8217;de ise yine mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH, 2000&#8217;in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi ile 2003&#8217;\u00fcn son \u00e7eyre\u011fi aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in g\u00f6steriliyor. Bu sefer 2000&#8217;in son \u00e7eyre\u011fi 100 olacak \u015fekilde \u00e7izildi grafik. Ayr\u0131ca her iki grafikte de 100 de\u011feri yatay \u00e7izgiler ile g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2754572873\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>K\u00fcresel krizde ula\u015f\u0131lan dip noktas\u0131 daha derin: 2001&#8217;de GSYH (endeks olarak) 89.6&#8217;ya kadar d\u00fc\u015ferken k\u00fcresel krizde bu de\u011fer 87; GSYH k\u00fcresel krizde y\u00fczde 2.9 daha faza d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. 2001 krizinde, GSYH kriz \u00f6ncesindeki rekor de\u011ferine (100) sekiz \u00e7eyrekte d\u00f6nerken, k\u00fcresel krizde dokuz \u00e7eyrekte d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6stergeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2001 performans\u0131 biraz daha iyi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, krizden \u00f6nceki rekorun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi \u00e7eyrekten itibaren ge\u00e7en \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizde daha fazla: \u015eu andaki GSYH de\u011feri 106.8 iken 2003&#8217;\u00fcn son \u00e7eyre\u011finde 105.4 olmu\u015f; \u015fu andaki y\u00fczde 1.3 daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, ilk saptama \u015fu: Her iki krizdeki GSYH hareketleri son derece benzer. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f nedenleri \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 da olsa, GSYH \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde benzer bir hareket g\u00f6stermi\u015f her iki krizde de.<\/p>\n<p>Peki, 2008&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren GSYH potansiyeline yak\u0131n bir h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcseydi ne olurdu? Bu soruyu yan\u0131tlama i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 4.7 olarak ald\u0131m. Her \u00e7eyrek y\u0131l, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla (mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) GSYH&#8217;nin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.15 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131 demek bu. Grafik 3&#8217;te hem bu basit hesaplamadan \u00e7\u0131kan GSYH hem de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen GSYH de\u011ferleri var.<\/p>\n<p>Bu hesaplama olduk\u00e7a &#8216;kaba&#8217; bi\u00e7imde &#8216;potansiyel&#8217; GSYH ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015feni kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Kaba olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, 2008&#8217;in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen GSYH&#8217;nin potansiyel GSYH olarak kabul edilmesi. Bu kaba g\u00f6sterge yine de bir fikir veriyor: H\u00e2l\u00e2 potansiyelimizi tam kullanam\u0131yoruz; olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nday\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Ama tam da bu noktada durup d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmemiz gerekiyor. E\u011fer ger\u00e7ekten potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 4.7 ise, potansiyelimizin hala alt\u0131nda olmam\u0131za kar\u015f\u0131n neden bu kadar cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriyoruz? Durum b\u00f6yleyse, \u00f6zellikle k\u0131sa vade a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci alternatif, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131k y\u00fczde 4.5-5 aras\u0131nda de\u011fil; \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131. E\u011fer durum b\u00f6yleyse, bu da gelece\u011fimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc. Y\u00fczde 4.5-5 zaten geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerle aram\u0131zdaki gelir farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fildi, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 gelir farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na bile yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n eski d\u00fczeyine gelmedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek ger\u00e7ek arada bir yerde herhalde. Kriz sonras\u0131nda potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n nas\u0131l \u015fekillendi\u011fi \u00fczerinde biraz \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak gerekiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2130772075\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Diziye ara verip g\u00fcncele d\u00f6n\u00fcyorum. Grafik 1&#8217;de 2007&#8217;nin son \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSYH&#8217;nin) hareketleri var. Kolay&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}