{"id":24324,"date":"2013-04-29T15:11:09","date_gmt":"2013-04-29T13:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=24324"},"modified":"2013-04-29T15:11:18","modified_gmt":"2013-04-29T13:11:18","slug":"imf-turkiye-ekonomisi-icin-dusuk-buyume-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/imf-turkiye-ekonomisi-icin-dusuk-buyume-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisi i\u00e7in D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>IMF\u2019nin <em>D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/em> (World Economic Outlook) Nisan 2013 raporu hafta i\u00e7nde yay\u0131nland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, IMF 2013 ve 2014 y\u0131llar\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 3,2 ve y\u00fczde 4 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekte. Hat\u0131rlarsan\u0131z, IMF\u2019nin y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan tahminlerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme % 3,4 seviyelerindeydi. Bu durumda, 0,2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etmi\u015f durumda. Raporda, ayr\u0131ca Avrupa krizinin giderek derinle\u015fece\u011fi, ABD ekonomisinin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam edece\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor. Ancak\u00a0 ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin isiihdama katk\u0131s\u0131 ne derece ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olacak derseniz ben pek iyimser de\u011filim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne dayal\u0131 istihdam, i\u015fsizli\u011fi artt\u0131rmaya devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1628428688\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Gelelim raporun T\u00fcrkiye k\u0131sm\u0131na, IMF, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin 2015\u2019e kadar y\u00fczde 4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2018\u2019e kadar da y\u00fczde 4.50 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekte.\u00a0 Bu durumda,\u00a0 IMF\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin Orta Vadeli Program ile uyu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmekteyiz.\u00a0 Tasarruflar\u0131n \/ GSYH oran\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 2013 i\u00e7in\u00a0 y\u00fczde 14, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da ise y\u00fczde 22 civar\u0131nda bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k da\u00a0 ise, IMF\u2019nin 2013 ve sonraki y\u0131llar i\u00e7in artaca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisi,\u00a0 2013\u2019\u00fcn 58 milyar dolar ile kapat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, 2018\u2019de ise\u00a0 100 milyar dolar\u0131\u00a0 a\u015faca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde . Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH oran\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 2012 senesinde %-5,9 ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6re, gelecek y\u0131llarda bu oran\u0131n\u0131n % &#8211; 8,5 \u2013 9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oluyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetlersek, gelecek on y\u0131l i\u00e7in\u00a0 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin iki \u00f6nemli hedefi var. Ki\u015fi Ba\u015f\u0131 GSYH\u2019da 25 bin dolar, ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ilk on devleti aras\u0131na girebilmek. Ayr\u0131ca, on y\u0131l i\u00e7in de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 hedeflenen yat\u0131r\u0131m tutar\u0131 ise, 400 milyar dolar. Ancak,\u00a0 iki \u00f6nemli hedefe ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in yapmam\u0131z gereken, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n nas\u0131l finanse edilece\u011fini belirlemek ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin sadece i\u00e7 talep ile de\u011fil, d\u0131\u015f talep katk\u0131s\u0131 ile de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini sa\u011flamak . 2013 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 yak\u0131n zamanda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Muhtemelen, i\u00e7 talep a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz. Nisan 2013 itibari ile\u00a0 t\u00fcketici kredilerinde ki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n % 30\u2019u a\u015fmas\u0131, ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ihracat\u0131n pozitif katk\u0131 sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flamamas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7mesi, finansman\u0131n\u0131n ise hala do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ile yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 \u00f6nemli riskler olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc istihdam\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f \u015fimdilik yava\u015flam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen,\u00a0 i\u015fsizlik de art\u0131\u015f devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Rapor hakk\u0131nda yorum yapmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken, ancak, \u015fimdilik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm,\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck vites de gidece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/drismetdemirkol<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">http:\/\/bigyatirim.blogspot.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IMF\u2019nin D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc (World Economic Outlook) Nisan 2013 raporu hafta i\u00e7nde yay\u0131nland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, IMF 2013 ve 2014 y\u0131llar\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 3,2 ve&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":934,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24324\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}