Hafta i\u00e7inde yo\u011fun veri giri\u015fleri ile T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ilk ay\u0131n\u0131 analiz etme imkan\u0131m\u0131z oldu. \u00d6nce i\u015fsizlik ile\u00a0 ba\u015flayal\u0131m. T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re, mevsim etkisi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmadan yap\u0131lan analizde, T\u00fcrkiye genelinde i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak\u00a0 d\u00f6neminde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 226 bin ki\u015fi artarak 2 milyon 890 bin ki\u015fiye y\u00fckseldi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise 0,4 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ile %10,6 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 0,5 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ile %12,9, 15-24 ya\u015f grubunu i\u00e7eren gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise 2,3 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ile %20,7 oldu. \u0130stihdam edilenlerin sekt\u00f6rel da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ise, %22,4’\u00fc tar\u0131m, %19,9\u2019u sanayi, %6,3\u2019\u00fc in\u015faat, %51,4’\u00fc ise hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda yer ald\u0131. \u00d6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn istihdam edilenler i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 0,2 puan, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn pay\u0131 0,5 puan artarken, tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn pay\u0131 0,7 puan, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn pay\u0131 ise 0,1 puan azald\u0131. Bu arada, Mevsim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f istihdam edilenlerin say\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re analiz etti\u011fimizde,\u00a0 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak d\u00f6neminde, bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re 89 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015f, i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131nda ise 28 bin ki\u015filik azal\u0131\u015f meydana geldi. Mevsim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re 0,1 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ile %50,9, istihdam oran\u0131 0,1 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ile %46,1, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise 0,1 puanl\u0131k azal\u0131\u015f ile %9,4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00d6zet olarak \u015funu s\u00f6yleyebilirsiz ki, mevsim ve takvim etkisini baz al\u0131rsak, i\u015fsizli\u011fin Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re 0,1 puan azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 ancak, sekt\u00f6rel da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden beslenen bir istihdam yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu\u00a0 net bir \u015fekilde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Emek verimli\u011finde, d\u00fcnyada 31. s\u0131rada bulunan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin % 3 \u2013 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme band\u0131nda hareket etmesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin istihdam politikas\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilemeye devam ediyor. 2013 senesinin ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re,\u00a0 gelirlerin % 21,6 oran\u0131nda artarak 94,1 milyar TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, giderlerin ise % 13,3 oran\u0131nda artarak 95 milyar TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rmekteyiz.\u00a0 \u0130lk \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k ise 897 milyon TL olmu\u015f . Ge\u00e7en sene ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bu rakam, 6,4 milyar TL olmu\u015ftu. \u0130lk \u00fc\u00e7 ayda faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 denge de 14,3 milyar TL fazla vermi\u015f durumda. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ocak- Mart d\u00f6neminde faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla 10,9 milyar TL olmu\u015ftu. Vergi gelirleri de ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayda, % 20 artarak 77,4 milyar TL\u2019ye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f. B\u00fct\u00e7e rakamlar\u0131 ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay son derece olumlu. Gelirler ve faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla artm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ancak, vergi gelirlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak KDV ve \u00d6TV gelirlerinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmekteyiz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ge\u00e7en seneye g\u00f6re 1 milyar dolar artmas\u0131, ilk iki ayda, ihracat\u0131n pozitif katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yok denecek kadar az olmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ve gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 talebin canlanmas\u0131 ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi izlenimini veriyor. Bildi\u011finiz gibi,\u00a0 ge\u00e7en sene i\u00e7 talep % 0,7 daralarak\u00a0 0,5 negatif\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme katk\u0131s\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6zellikle t\u00fcketici kredilerinde ki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n % 23\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayda i\u00e7 talep a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile ithalat\u0131n i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi kar\u015f\u0131lamak amac\u0131 ile y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n sal\u0131 g\u00fcn ki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ise, faiz koridorunun alt band\u0131n\u0131 % 4, \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 % 7\u2019ye \u00e7ekmesi, politika faizini de % 5\u2019e indirmesi i\u00e7 talebin canlanmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, faiz giderlerinin azalmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan olumlu bir geli\u015fme olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, kredi geni\u015flemesini tetikleyece\u011fi ve uzun vadede fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratarak enflasyon \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk te\u015fkil edece\u011fi ve % 5 enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fman\u0131n\u00a0 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirtmekte fayda var. Esas merak etti\u011fim soru ise 2013 T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi dengeli olabilecek mi ? \u0130lk \u00fc\u00e7 ay i\u00e7in bu sorunun cevab\u0131 d\u0131\u015f talep katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dengeli b\u00fcy\u00fcmedi\u011fi, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak\u00a0 i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu durumda 2013 senesinde,\u00a0 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f talep ile de\u011fil, portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleri veya muhtemel kredi not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonucu , gelecek do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ile kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131 akl\u0131m\u0131za geliyor. \u00d6zelle\u015ftirme gelirlerini de unutmamak gerekiyor.\u00a0 \u0130\u015fsizlik konusunda ise, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ra\u011fmen, 2012 senesinde istihdam da art\u0131\u015f hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ki art\u0131\u015f nedeni ile devam etti. 2013 senesinde bu nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir derseniz . Sadece i\u00e7 talebe dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile % 3, – 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefine ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131r ise, i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fckselmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olur .<\/p>