{"id":239,"date":"2011-05-02T22:09:19","date_gmt":"2011-05-02T19:09:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=239"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:51:24","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:51:24","slug":"ufuk-otesi-bilgiler-ve-secmen-davranisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ufuk-otesi-bilgiler-ve-secmen-davranisi\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Ufuk \u00d6tesi&#8217; Bilgiler ve Se\u00e7men Davran\u0131\u015f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki pek \u00e7ok g\u00f6sterge, toplum olarak ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n etkisiyle ufkumuzun da k\u0131sa oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3545363216\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eu s\u0131ralarda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2023 hedeflerinden s\u00f6z etmek moda oldu. AKP de CHP de uzun d\u00f6nemli hedefler koyarak \u00fclkenin gelece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini kamuoyuna g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Siyasal partilerin bu y\u00f6nde \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermi\u015f olmalar\u0131, g\u00f6rebildi\u011fim kadar\u0131yla bas\u0131nda olumlu<br \/>\nkar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Acaba bunlar\u0131 duymak se\u00e7menlerin oy verme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiler?<br \/>\nBence pek az. A\u00e7\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fay\u0131m:<br \/>\n\u0130nsanlar karar al\u0131rken bir yandan ge\u00e7mi\u015fe ili\u015fkin bilgileri kullan\u0131rlar \u00f6te yandan da gelecekle ilgili baz\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri hesaba katarlar. Ancak bunu yaparken kendilerine g\u00f6re bir s\u00fcreyle ge\u00e7mi\u015fi ve gelece\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlarlar. Karar alabilmek i\u00e7in ki\u015fi kendisine ula\u015fan bilginin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131klar (uzak ge\u00e7mi\u015f), baz\u0131 konularda da bilgi edinmek i\u00e7in \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermez (uzak gelecek). \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ki\u015fi \u015f\u00f6yle bir hesap yapacakt\u0131r: \u201cBu bilgileri edinerek sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131m kazan\u00e7, katlanaca\u011f\u0131m zahmet ve maliyete de\u011fer mi?\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Se\u00e7menin ufku k\u0131sa<\/strong><br \/>\nAli Akarca ve Ays\u0131t Tansel\u2019in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin yapt\u0131klar\u0131 ekonometrik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, se\u00e7menin belle\u011finin pek de geriye uzanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. E\u011fer ekonomik durumda iyile\u015fme olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131layla \u00f6l\u00e7ersek, se\u00e7imden bir y\u0131ldan daha \u00f6nceki de\u011fi\u015fiklikler oy verme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada etkili \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor. Bu bulgular \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2009\u2019da ya\u015fanan krizin 12<br \/>\nHaziran 2011 se\u00e7iminde se\u00e7men davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 pek etkilemesi beklenmez. Hemen belirteyim, bu davran\u0131\u015f T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00f6zg\u00fc de\u011fil. ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda da ayn\u0131 sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f.<br \/>\nBurada akla ba\u015fka bir soru geliyor: Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe ili\u015fkin olarak k\u0131sa bir zaman d\u00f6nemini hesaba katan se\u00e7menin ufku da k\u0131sa olmaz m\u0131? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki pek \u00e7ok g\u00f6sterge, toplum olarak ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n etkisiyle ufkumuzun da k\u0131sa oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. (Mevduat\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeye y\u0131\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131, acelecili\u011fimiz vs.) B\u00f6yle olunca, b\u0131rak\u0131n uzun d\u00f6nemi, orta d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin bir bilgi bile T\u00fcrk se\u00e7meni i\u00e7in \u2018ufuk \u00f6tesinde\u2019 kal\u0131yor. Bu nedenle de se\u00e7menin oy verme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 pek etkileyece\u011fini beklememek gerek.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ufku geni\u015fletmek zor <\/strong><br \/>\nSe\u00e7menin ufku geni\u015fletilebilir mi? Askerlikten bir \u00f6rnek vererek a\u00e7\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fay\u0131m. Bir sava\u015f gemisinin radarlar\u0131 ufuk \u00e7izgisinin \u00f6tesinde ne olup bitti\u011fini g\u00f6rmeye olanak sa\u011flamaz, (kabaca d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yuvarlakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle). Ama oralarda uzun menzilli silahlarla donat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015fman gemisinin olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmek ise \u00f6nemlidir. Bu nedenle daha y\u00fcksekten g\u00f6zlem yapan u\u00e7ak ya da helikopterler yard\u0131m\u0131yla ufkun geni\u015fletilmesi yoluna gidilmi\u015ftir. Yani g\u00f6zlemcinin ileriye bakmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen ko\u015fullardan kurtulmas\u0131 sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Se\u00e7men i\u00e7in de bu yap\u0131labilir mi? Bir dereceye kadar evet. G\u00fcnl\u00fck olaylara bo\u011fulmayan, ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmek i\u00e7in gerekli bilginin \u00f6nemlice bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 kolayca sa\u011flayabildi\u011fi saydam ortamda bulunan ve edindi\u011fi bilgileri de\u011ferlendirebilecek donan\u0131ma (e\u011fitim, k\u00fclt\u00fcr) sahip olan bir se\u00e7men, ilerisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye daha \u00e7ok zaman ay\u0131rabilir. Bu da se\u00e7menin ufkunun uzamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ortam\u0131 bu ko\u015fullar\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor mu? Ne yaz\u0131k ki hay\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki pek \u00e7ok g\u00f6sterge, toplum olarak ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 y\u0131llar\u0131n etkisiyle ufkumuzun da k\u0131sa oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eu s\u0131ralarda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2023 hedeflerinden s\u00f6z etmek moda oldu.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":1032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}