{"id":23892,"date":"2013-04-03T08:05:17","date_gmt":"2013-04-03T06:05:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=23892"},"modified":"2013-04-03T08:05:25","modified_gmt":"2013-04-03T06:05:25","slug":"ekonomi-neden-sasirtti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ekonomi-neden-sasirtti\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomi Neden \u015ea\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130malat sanayiinde kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 geriliyor; sanayi \u00fcretimi beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, \u00fclke b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de Bakan \u00c7a\u011flayan\u2019\u0131n tabiriyle \u2018ac\u0131 bir fren\u2019 yap\u0131yor. Bu arada ihracat artarken, \u00fcretimdeki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar da insanlar\u0131n akl\u0131n\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3935541160\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nas\u0131l \u00e7ok bilinmeyenli bir denklem gibi duruyor de\u011fil mi? \u2018B\u00fcy\u00fcme gelirse cari a\u00e7\u0131k artacak; yok ikisini birden nas\u0131l kontrol edece\u011fiz, bu nedenle en \u00f6nemli tercih ihracat odakl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalamakt\u0131r\u2019 gibilerinden kocaman laflar ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomi kanallar\u0131ndaki son verilere ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131 hayretle izliyorum.Yorumcular, sunucular b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k i\u00e7inde, t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler bug\u00fcn ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f gibi davran\u0131yorlar. Ya ger\u00e7ekten ortal\u0131\u011fa cahil c\u00fchela tak\u0131m\u0131 dolmu\u015f ya da \u00e7ok iyi rol yap\u0131yorlar. Nereden bakarsan bak \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc bir durum.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat kimse t\u00fcm bu g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc i\u00e7erisinde \u2018nas\u0131l ve neden\u2019 sorular\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 aram\u0131yor. \u015eimdi \u00f6ncelikle ihracat\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na iyi bakmak gerekiyor. E\u011fer bir \u00fclkede sanayi ve \u00f6zelde de imalat kalemi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 \u00e7ekiyorsa, kur bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da \u00fczerine eklerseniz, \u00fclke b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ihracat ile kurtar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 garip de\u011fil mi?<\/p>\n<p>Burada iki \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131k g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Bunlardan birincisi son aylar\u0131n \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 konusu olan alt\u0131n ile \u00f6demenin ihracattan say\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131. Asl\u0131nda bu kalem ihracat olarak kabul edilmeseydi, T\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok \u00f6nceden bu ger\u00e7ek ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bir di\u011fer boyutu daha var meselenin. Diyelim ki ihracat rakam\u0131 ger\u00e7ek olsun. O zaman kapasite kullan\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan bir \u00e7izgide sanayi \u00fcretiminin olay yaratacak bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f elde etmesi gerekmez miydi? E\u011fer ki ger\u00e7ekten mal sat\u0131yorsak, burada da bir di\u011fer a\u00e7maz g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Demek ki T\u00fcrkiye son d\u00f6nemde yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00fcrettirdi\u011fi mallar\u0131, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde montajlayarak nihai \u00fcr\u00fcn haline getirmi\u015f, asl\u0131nda katma de\u011feri yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u0131rakarak ihracat ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda komisyonculuk yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. T\u0131pk\u0131 beyaz e\u015fye sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ya da bilgisayarc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131llard\u0131r yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Peki ak\u0131llara tak\u0131lan ve kamuoyuna lanse edilen \u2018cari a\u00e7\u0131k ihracatla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor\u2019 kavram\u0131 ne olacak? Bu k\u00fclliyen yaland\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmde ila\u00e7 budur, ama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin imalat yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki \u00e7arp\u0131kl\u0131k nedeniyle bunun olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-503312400\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hele ki durgunlu\u011fu keskinle\u015fmi\u015f bir Avrupa pazar\u0131 ortadayken. Yarat\u0131lan alternatif pazarlar da bug\u00fcn itibariyle Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaktan uzak iken.<\/p>\n<p>Zira \u00e7ok net bir ger\u00e7ek var ki, \u00fclkede ihracat artarsa, \u00fcretimi ithalata ba\u011fl\u0131 bu yap\u0131 \u00f6nce d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini, ard\u0131ndan da cari a\u00e7\u0131k konusunu olumsuz y\u00f6nde tetikler. M\u00fcthi\u015f bir yap\u0131sal reform da olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re bunun yan\u0131t\u0131 ne?<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye son 10 y\u0131ld\u0131r \u00fcretimle b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomi de\u011fil. T\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n aksine artan sokaktaki i\u015fsizlik ve rakamlarda bile 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nceki noktan\u0131n halen korunuyor olmas\u0131 bunu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00dclke y\u0131llard\u0131r ithalat ve s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi \u00fczerine kurgulanan bir temelle b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Ve t\u00fcm bu g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc i\u00e7erisinde asl\u0131nda \u00e7ak\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bize iki bilgi veriyor. Bunlardan birincisi Merkez Bankas\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun son toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada sermaye giri\u015flerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7izilmesi\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2092458843\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Hatta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc o ki, yine kurulun kararlar\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin b\u00f6yle bir riskin olduk\u00e7a ciddi bi\u00e7imde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde durdu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bir di\u011fer bilgi de uzmanlar\u0131n ve ekonomistlerin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi bir ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n<p>Son bir ayd\u0131r biz dahil geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere akan para durdu. Yani akmad\u0131\u2026 Muhtemeldir ki \u00fczerinde oynanmazsa ya da bavulla i\u00e7eri para sokulmazsa durum bir dahaki ay da ayn\u0131 olacak. Zaten yak\u0131n vadeli bor\u00e7tan olu\u015fan s\u0131cak paran\u0131n tamamen kesildi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek g\u00fc\u00e7.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kanaate varmak i\u00e7in periyodun 2 \u2013 3 ay takip edilmesi ve ayn\u0131 durumun devam\u0131 gerekir. Ama hepsi bir yana bu hareket bize g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir ki, sanal bir ekonomide ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bug\u00fcn bozulur, yar\u0131n d\u00fczelir, ama bor\u00e7lanarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz ya\u015fam \u00e7izginizin sonucu de\u011fi\u015fmez. Mutlak bir bat\u0131\u015f\u2026 Ne diyor \u015fark\u0131? Para bitti, a\u015fk bitti.<\/p>\n<p>Velhas\u0131l kelam b\u00fcy\u00fck laflar etmeye, bu mesele ile bug\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015f\u0131z gibi tav\u0131r tak\u0131nmaya gerek yok. E\u011fer T\u00fcrkiye ekonomik modeli de\u011fi\u015ftirmezse tek bir c\u00fcmlede geli\u015fmeleri okuyabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018Para gelmedi\u011fi anda, ekonominiz etkisiz eleman.\u2019 Kulak asmay\u0131n saatlerce s\u00fcren tart\u0131\u015fmalara\u2026 Mesele bu kadar basit. Tart\u0131\u015facaksak, do\u011fru ekonomik modele, \u00fcreten T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye nas\u0131l ge\u00e7i\u015f yapar\u0131z, bunu konu\u015fal\u0131m. Gerisi bo\u015f laf.<\/p>\n<p>cetinunsalan@yahoo.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130malat sanayiinde kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 geriliyor; sanayi \u00fcretimi beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, \u00fclke b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de Bakan \u00c7a\u011flayan\u2019\u0131n tabiriyle \u2018ac\u0131 bir fren\u2019 yap\u0131yor. Bu arada ihracat artarken,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23892\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}