{"id":23781,"date":"2013-03-28T08:09:59","date_gmt":"2013-03-28T06:09:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=23781"},"modified":"2013-03-28T08:11:56","modified_gmt":"2013-03-28T06:11:56","slug":"seans-oncesi-ve-not-artisi-geldi-0845","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-oncesi-ve-not-artisi-geldi-0845\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u00d6ncesi&#8230; Ve Not Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Geldi&#8230;08:45"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu sabah S&amp;P&#8217;den gelen not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 haberi g\u00fcndemin birinci konusu. &#8216;T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin diren\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8217; belirtilen a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-322660906\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\" data-mce-mark=\"1\"><em>&#8220;T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece sa\u011flam olan mali performans\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zard\u0131 etmeden yava\u015f\u00e7a yeniden dengelendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin dalgal\u0131 kur rejimi, d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131nda temkinli limitlenme ve derinle\u015fen yerel sermaye piyasas\u0131, ekonomiyi potansiyel sermaye hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 diren\u00e7li hale getiriyor. Bu sebeple, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin not g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc &#8216;BB &#8221;ya y\u00fckseltiyoruz. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dura\u011fan.&#8221;<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Ama vurgulamal\u0131y\u0131z ki S&amp;P&#8217;ye g\u00f6re hala &#8220;yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir&#8221; seviyenin alt\u0131nday\u0131z.\u00a0A\u00e7\u0131klamada ayr\u0131ca &#8216;\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm s\u00fcreci&#8217;ne y\u00f6nelik at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlara da vurgu yap\u0131ld\u0131. &#8221;K\u00fcrt meselesinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in kaydedilen ilerlemeye&#8221; dikkat \u00e7ekilerek, &#8221;Bunun, daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6sterilen \u00e7abalardan daha uzun s\u00fcreli olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. E\u011fer \u00f6yle olursa, g\u00fcvenlik sebepli harcamalar azalacak ve s\u0131n\u0131r ticareti artacakt\u0131r&#8221; ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn d\u0131\u015far\u0131s\u0131 yine darmada\u011f\u0131n olurken bizim piyasa g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn gazetesindeki k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in hikayenin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini vurgulayarak bir not art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da olabilece\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftim. Ama bu kadar erken olmas\u0131n\u0131 da beklemiyordum. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n son yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamadaki k\u00fcresel sermaye giri\u015flerinin azalaca\u011f\u0131na ve bu sayede cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bask\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131na \u00a0ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc yanl\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131kacak. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve yeni hikayeler ki, \u0130srail&#8217;\u0130n \u00f6zr\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin enerji konusunda aktif rol almas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Bu sayede de sermaye giri\u015fleri yeniden h\u0131zlanabilir. \u00a0Son Merkez Bankas\u0131 karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda DIBS&#8217;e al\u0131m gelebilirdi ama sat\u0131\u015flar devam etmi\u015fti. Bence sebep enflasyon beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimdir. G\u00f6sterge faiz y\u00fczde 6.40 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. Not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 tahvilde yeniden al\u0131mlar\u0131 ba\u015flatabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Borsaya gelince, d\u00fcn 84.195 seviyesinden kapanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn tahminen 84.500 ile 85.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir yerde a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapacakt\u0131r. E\u011fer piyasa bu not art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sinyallerini \u00f6nceden alm\u0131\u015fsa, y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131lsak da bir miktar k\u00e2r realizasyonu gelebilir ama bu realizasyon fazla uzun s\u00fcrmez. Daha \u00f6nce verdi\u011fim 86.500 hedefi ge\u00e7erlidir. Daha \u00f6nce 82 bin seviyesini stop seviyesi olarak vermi\u015ftim. Son geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu seviyeyi yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyorum ve \u015fu an 82.700 seviyeleri stop olarak belirlenebilir. D\u0131\u015far\u0131daki b\u00fct\u00fcn \u015fartlar ayn\u0131 kalmak \u015fart\u0131yla, endeks g\u00fcne sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra yataya ge\u00e7ebilir. \u0130lk a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyeye g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 300-500 puan gerileme yapt\u0131ktan sonra yatay harekete ba\u015flay\u0131p ard\u0131ndan yeniden art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirebilir. Bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek 83.500 seviyesidir. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc gerektirecek geli\u015fmeler olsa olsa Avrupa cephesinden gelebilir. \u00d6zellikle K\u0131br\u0131s&#8217;ta Laiki bank mudileri ciddi olaylar yaratabilir ve bu durum di\u011fer Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131 da strese sokabilir. Fakat bu durum T\u00fcrkiye hikayesini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek ge\u00e7ici gerileme yaratabilir. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 acemiler kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 ustalar yapar. Bu y\u00fczden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta al\u0131m i\u00e7in aceleci olmamakta fayda var. \u00a0Asl\u0131nda bu sabah ABD ve Asya olumsuz bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde bulunuyor ama bizim borsa i\u00e7in en az\u0131ndan ilk seansta iyi bir g\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Sonras\u0131nda ise d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki geli\u015fmelere paralel hareket etmeye ba\u015flayabiliriz. Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 g\u00fcnler diliyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NOT<\/strong>: Sizlerden gelen istek \u00fczerine, daha \u00f6nce webinarda verdi\u011fim excel dosyas\u0131n\u0131n son bilan\u00e7olarla g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f halini bug\u00fcn \u00f6\u011fleden sonra yay\u0131nlayaca\u011f\u0131m. Yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131mda tweet atar\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu sabah S&amp;P&#8217;den gelen not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 haberi g\u00fcndemin birinci konusu. &#8216;T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin diren\u00e7 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8217; belirtilen a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u015funlar kaydedildi: &#8220;T\u00fcrk ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece sa\u011flam olan mali performans\u0131n\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23781"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23781\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}