{"id":2375,"date":"2011-07-05T09:57:01","date_gmt":"2011-07-05T06:57:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2375"},"modified":"2011-07-05T09:57:10","modified_gmt":"2011-07-05T06:57:10","slug":"ilk-yarida-enflasyon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ilk-yarida-enflasyon\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130lk Yar\u0131da Enflasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar\u0131 heyecanland\u0131ran Haziran enflasyonu d\u00fcn sabah T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (T\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 0.8 d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyordu. Y\u00fczde 1 diyen iyimserler de vard\u0131. Ben T\u00dcFE\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcm.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3716147452\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Herkes karamsar kald\u0131. May\u0131sta y\u00fczde 2,4 artan t\u00fcketici haziranda y\u00fczde 1.4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 7.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 6.2\u2019ye (1 puan) indi. Yani ikinci \u00e7eyrek enflasyonu hedefle uyumlu \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu say\u0131lar\u0131n mali piyasalar\u0131n can\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Geri planda Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile faiz \u00e7eki\u015fmesi yat\u0131yor. May\u0131s\u2019ta taze sebze-meyve fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ani t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 umutland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Haziran\u2019<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>da<\/strong><\/span><\/a> sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f o nedenle hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekonomi \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor mu?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Faiz tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 kamuoyunun yeni bir kavramla tan\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131: Is\u0131nma. K\u0131z\u0131\u015fma da denebilir. Toplam talebin \u00fcretim kapasitesinden h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 sonucu fiyatlar \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131 halini tasvir eder.<\/p>\n<p>Hangi fiyatlar? Kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za gene \u00f6l\u00e7me sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar. T\u00dcFE hesab\u0131 g\u0131da,\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>enerji<\/strong><\/span><\/a> vs. arz ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok etkilenen mallar\u0131 da kapsar. Ayr\u0131ca ithal mal fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00f6viz kuruna hassast\u0131r. T\u00fcketim sepetinde alt\u0131n da yer al\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00dcFE ekonominin ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mekte yetersizdir. Ba\u015fka \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcler gerekir. Ben kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 severim. Merkez Bankas\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>bu<\/strong><\/span><\/a> ama\u00e7la geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u00d6KTG-I g\u00f6stergesini tercih ediyor. \u201c\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon\u201d diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2007 yaz\u0131na kadar T\u00dcFE\u2019nin iki kat\u0131 idi. 2010 sonunda y\u00fczde 4\u2019le dibe vurdu. Bu y\u0131l y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Haziran\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 4.4 oldu. \u00d6KTG-I y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonbaharda y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019e inmi\u015fti. Sonra ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131. Haziranda y\u00fczde 5.3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3976487116\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ekonomide \u0131s\u0131nma var m\u0131? G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 talep ve h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin fiyat davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Ancak, iki g\u00f6sterge de h\u00e2l\u00e2 enflasyon hedefi ile uyumludur. En az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik hedefi \u0131skalama i\u015fareti ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ile enflasyon aras\u0131nda mekanik bir ili\u015fki kuran ezberlere her f\u0131rsatta kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yorum. Enflasyon son derece karma\u015f\u0131k bir s\u00fcrecin sonucudur. Talebin canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcrecin hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz \u00f6nemli bir unsurudur. Ama tek belirleyicisi de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Mart enflasyonu yay\u0131nland\u0131ktan sonra 2010 sonras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyonu bir grafikte \u00f6zetlemi\u015ftim.\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>\u0130lk<\/strong><\/span><\/a> \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bo\u015f kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Grafi\u011fi ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131m. T\u00dcFE yerine \u00d6KTG-I art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon) kulland\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-127222265\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2010\u2019un son \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlan\u0131rken \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon geriliyor. Ama 2011\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekor k\u0131r\u0131nca \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon da k\u0131p\u0131rd\u0131yor. Ve bu e\u011filim ikinci \u00e7eyrekte de s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyondaki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f korkutucu mu? Yerim bitti, bu ilgin\u00e7 konuya devam edece\u011fim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar\u0131 heyecanland\u0131ran Haziran enflasyonu d\u00fcn sabah T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (T\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 0.8 d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyordu. Y\u00fczde 1 diyen iyimserler de vard\u0131. Ben T\u00dcFE\u2019de y\u00fczde&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2375\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}