{"id":23615,"date":"2013-03-18T08:11:41","date_gmt":"2013-03-18T06:11:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=23615"},"modified":"2013-03-18T08:12:26","modified_gmt":"2013-03-18T06:12:26","slug":"seans-oncesi-alir-misiniz-kibrisi-0840","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-oncesi-alir-misiniz-kibrisi-0840\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u00d6ncesi&#8230; Al\u0131r m\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z K\u0131br\u0131s\u0131? 08:40"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f piyasalar mutlu sonla noktalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ama Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc K\u0131br\u0131sta kelebek kanat \u00e7\u0131rpt\u0131, \u015fimdi Avrupa&#8217;da deprem oluyor. Bu konuda \u015fu an internet medyas\u0131nda ve yaz\u0131l\u0131 bas\u0131nda \u00e7ok fazla haber var. Ama konuyu en g\u00fczel \u00f6zetleyen haberi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da veriyorum (www.bloomberght.com)<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3703756625\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><em><span data-mce-mark=\"1\">&#8220;Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nin sona eren toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Rum bankalar\u0131ndaki mevduat hesaplar\u0131na getirilen vergi y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, Rumlar\u0131n bankamatiklere ak\u0131n etmesine neden oldu. Euro B\u00f6lgesi maliye bakanlar\u0131 ve IMF&#8217;nin kurtarma operasyonu uyar\u0131nca, G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s bankalar\u0131ndaki mevduat hesaplar\u0131 kesintiye u\u011frayacak. Buna g\u00f6re 100 bin eurodan az hesab\u0131 olanlardan bir defaya mahsus y\u00fczde 6.75, 100 bin euroyu a\u015fan hesaplardan ise y\u00fczde 9,9 vergi y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc getiriliyor. Bununla birlikte Rum Kesimi&#8217;nde bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminde d\u00fczenlemeye gidilerek, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><em><span data-mce-mark=\"1\">Hafta sonu olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Eurogroup toplant\u0131s\u0131nda al\u0131nan s\u00f6z konusu karara tepki g\u00f6steren Rumlar, bankamatiklere giderek \u00e7ekebilecekleri kadar para \u00e7ekerken al\u0131nan karara sert tepki g\u00f6sterdi. Limasol&#8217;da bir Rum vatanda\u015f\u0131, paras\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmesine izin verilmedi\u011fi gerek\u00e7esiyle, buldozer ile banka \u015fubesine girmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Vatanda\u015f g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin de m\u00fcdahalesiyle bankaya girmeden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fckle durdurulabildi.<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><em><span data-mce-mark=\"1\">Rum gazeteleri ise, Eurogroup toplant\u0131s\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 gazetelerinde man\u015fetlerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak, &#8221;Anastasiadis, Avrupal\u0131 ortaklar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131rt\u0131ndan han\u00e7erlendi&#8221;, &#8221;Ya \u0130flas Ya Memorandum&#8221;, &#8221;Avrupal\u0131lar bizi bo\u011faz\u0131m\u0131zdan yakalad\u0131&#8221; haberlerine yer verdi.<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><em><span data-mce-mark=\"1\">GKRK Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mihalis Sarris de, mevduatlara ili\u015fkin verginin, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn resmi tatil olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bankalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar karar\u0131n ge\u00e7irilmesi i\u00e7in meclisin ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc toplanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Mecliste temsil edilmekte olan siyasi partilere, GKRK h\u00fck\u00fcmetine se\u00e7enekler hakk\u0131nda bilgi verildi\u011fini vurgulayan Sarris, yap\u0131lacak oylaman\u0131n sonucuyla ilgili ise \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcde bulunmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131.&#8221;<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\" data-mce-mark=\"1\">Bu geli\u015fmelere sonras\u0131nda bu sabah euro-dolar paritesi 1.29 civar\u0131nda hareket ediyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1.3065 civar\u0131ndan kapanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f adeta bir deprem niteli\u011finde. G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s&#8217;\u0131n tamam\u0131 batsa, Avrupa&#8217;y\u0131 asl\u0131nda olumsuz etkilemez. Fakat iki \u00f6nemli sorun var;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\" data-mce-mark=\"1\"><strong>Birincisi<\/strong>, G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131staki bankalarda 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde mevduat var. Bu mevduatlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 da yabanc\u0131lara ait. \u0130ngilizler, orada \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u0130ngiliz vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenece\u011fini duyurdu ama vergi avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in Rusya&#8217;dan \u00a0da gelen \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek miktarlarda para varm\u0131\u015f. Ruslar\u0131n mevduat\u0131n\u0131n 20-30 milyar euro aras\u0131nda oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Rus bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi de bundan etkilenebilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla genel bir panik havas\u0131 hakim.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130kincisi daha da \u00f6nemli bir konu.<\/strong> Bula\u015fma etkisi&#8230; Bug\u00fcn asl\u0131nda G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s&#8217;a de\u011fil, ba\u015fta \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya olmak \u00fczere, Avrupa&#8217;da mevduat sahibinin ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakmak gerekir. \u00a0Tahminen, o cephede de mevduatlara sald\u0131r\u0131 olacakt\u0131r ama bunun nas\u0131l bir sonuca yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 ekonomi ve finans tarihinde ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak yaz\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fczden yetkililer herhalde bu sabaha kadar bunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr ve illaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar gelecektir. E\u011fer Avrupa&#8217;da her kafadan bir ses \u00e7\u0131karsa i\u015fler iyi olmaz. B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla Draghi de konu\u015facakt\u0131r. Hatta i\u015fler k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse, bu vergi i\u015fi ask\u0131ya al\u0131nabilir. \u00a0Bu konuda Moodys bu\u00a0hamlenin Avrupa genelindeki banka kredilerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 deste\u011fine y\u00f6nelik ciddi bir hamle oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek, <strong>politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n temerr\u00fct\u00fc \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in finansal piyasalar\u0131 riske ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> s\u00f6yledi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-169278043\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda \u015fu an piyasalar bu olay\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yorlar ve tahminen AB&#8217;den gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar piyasalarda ani d\u00fczelme ve bozulmalar yaratacakt\u0131r. Bir haber gelecek ve i\u015fler yoluna girmi\u015f \u015feklinde alg\u0131lanacak, bir haber gelecek, i\u015fler daha da k\u00f6t\u00fc bir hal al\u0131yor alg\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015facakt\u0131r. Yani piyasalarda bug\u00fcn dalga boylar\u0131 y\u00fcksek olabilir. Ama en \u00f6nemli soru \u015fudur; Bu geli\u015fmeler sonras\u0131nda AB liderleri veya y\u00f6neticileri, para \u00e7ekmeye ili\u015fkin benzer bir durumun \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya&#8217;da da olu\u015fmas\u0131na seyirci kal\u0131rlar m\u0131? Bence kalmazlar ama bu sabah \u0130talya&#8217;dan da benzer haberler gelirse piyasalarda \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bozulmalar olabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu sabah al-sat zaman\u0131 de\u011fildir. A\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta endeks en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131p daha sonra toparlar.<\/p>\n<p>Endeks ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 83.115 seviyesinden kapatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta tahminen 82 bin civar\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapacakt\u0131r. Yani a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta 800 ile 1250 puan aras\u0131nda gerileme beklenebilir. Asl\u0131nda bu geli\u015fmelerden en az zarar g\u00f6recek \u00a0\u00fclke T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;dir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ne G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131sta mevduat\u0131m\u0131z var ne de, T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131ndan bir para ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla asl\u0131nda biz g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131z. Ama a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta di\u011fer piyasalara paralel bir refleks vermemiz de normal bir geli\u015fme olacakt\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015ftaki sert gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan, e\u011fer 82 bin seviyeleri dip olursa, \u00a0ilerleyen saatlerde yeniden 82.500-83.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi zannediyorum. \u00a0Fakat \u00a0bir hafta sonra bu olay\u0131 pek hat\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 zannetmiyorum.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak bug\u00fcn \u0130MKB&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 1 ile 1.5 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yaparak a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenir. \u00a0Ondan sonra da hacimsiz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir seyir g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yava\u015f yava\u015f y\u00fckselmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir endeks s\u00f6zkonusu olabilir. Bu arada, dolar\/TL kuru, paritedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkisiyle 1.8169 seviyesinden g\u00fcne ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu a\u015famada daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f beklemiyorum. 1.83 seviyesi \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 konumundad\u0131r. Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 g\u00fcnler diliyorum&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6NEML\u0130 NOT:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3128806245\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>10 Mart 2013 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00a0saat 20:50\u2032de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z webinar\u2019da sizlere g\u00f6stermi\u015f oldu\u011fum dosya L\u0130NKL\u0130 ve L\u0130NKS\u0130Z EXCEL dosyalar\u0131 \u00a0a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da verilmi\u015ftir. FAaliyet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelir ve Gider grafi\u011fi de dosyaya eklenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=oLqh5d5ci-g&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">WEB\u0130NAR V\u0130DEOSUNU \u0130ZLEMEK \u0130\u00c7\u0130N TIKLAYINIZ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>EXCEL DOSYASI (L\u0130NKS\u0130Z):\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/donemsel-one-cikanlar.xlsx\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Donemsel Olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan hisseler (Linksiz)<\/a>\u00a0(8 MB)<\/p>\n<p>EXCEL DOSYASI (L\u0130NKL\u0130):\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drerdinc.net\/donemsel.xlsx\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">Donemsel Olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan hisseler (Linkli)<\/a>\u00a0(9 MB)<\/p>\n<p>(Dikkat! L\u0130NKL\u0130 Dosyay\u0131 a\u00e7arken sab\u0131rl\u0131 davran\u0131n\u0131z. Bilgisayar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131na g\u00f6re a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcrebilir. E\u011fer linkleri g\u00fcncellemekten bahsederse, hay\u0131r se\u00e7ene\u011fini se\u00e7iniz.)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f piyasalar mutlu sonla noktalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ama Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc K\u0131br\u0131sta kelebek kanat \u00e7\u0131rpt\u0131, \u015fimdi Avrupa&#8217;da deprem oluyor. Bu konuda \u015fu&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}