{"id":235,"date":"2011-05-17T22:06:16","date_gmt":"2011-05-17T19:06:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=235"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:49:49","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:49:49","slug":"kucuk-krizlerin-yarari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kucuk-krizlerin-yarari\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Krizlerin Yarar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TL de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam ederse yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kazanc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer, s\u0131cak para \u00e7\u0131kar ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k daralmaya y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-169873906\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en g\u00fcnlerde dolar, TL\u2019nin de aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu \u00f6teki para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bunda bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmenin etkisi var. Bunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Yunanistan ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n euroyu yeniden tart\u0131\u015fma alan\u0131na \u00e7ekmesi geliyor. Bu d\u0131\u015f geli\u015fmeye ek olarak bizim cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 12 ayl\u0131k bazda 60.5 milyar dolara y\u00fckselmesi sonucunda endi\u015feler art\u0131nca TL daha da fazla de\u011fer kaybetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Haftay\u0131 1 USD = 1.60 TL kuruyla bitirdik. Bu durumda TL de\u011ferliyken gelen s\u0131cak para e\u011fer \u015fimdiye kadar \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015fsa zarar<br \/>\nediyor demektir.<br \/>\nBaz\u0131 okurlar\u0131m ge\u00e7en sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc bu s\u00fctunda yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m reel faiz hesab\u0131nda ayr\u0131nt\u0131da baz\u0131 eksikler oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131lar. Bu itirazlar mevduattan kesilen verginin oran\u0131, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc hesab\u0131nda faizin enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi konular\u0131 kapsayan hakl\u0131 ele\u015ftirilerdi. Bir yandan TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla ba\u015flayan s\u00fcreci de\u011ferlendirirken bir yandan da hesaplar\u0131 d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f \u015fekliyle bir kez daha ele almaya karar verdim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Reel faiz hesab\u0131 <\/strong><br \/>\nReel faizi hesaplamakta kullan\u0131lan form\u00fcl \u015f\u00f6yledir: Reel faiz = (1 + nominal faiz) \/ (1 + beklenen enflasyon) \u2013 1. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne uygun olarak nominal net faizin yerine y\u00fczde 7, beklenen enflasyonun yerine de y\u00fczde 7 koyarsak y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda bankaya 100 TL yat\u0131ran bir T\u00fcrk\u00fcn elde etti\u011fi reel faiz y\u00fczde s\u0131f\u0131r olacakt\u0131r. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda ayn\u0131 anda 100 TL\u2019sini bir y\u0131l vadeyle y\u00fczde 7 net nominal faiz \u00fczerinden bankaya yat\u0131ran bir T\u00fcrk ile 66.7 dolar\u0131n\u0131 getirip 1.5 TL\u2019lik kurdan bozdurup elde etti\u011fi 100 TL\u2019yi ayn\u0131 faizle bankaya yat\u0131ran Amerikal\u0131n\u0131n durumu g\u00f6steriliyor. Her ikisi de bir y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda 7 TL faiz elde etmi\u015f olacak. Her ikisinin de o a\u015famada paras\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. \u0130kisinin de elinde toplam 107 TL olacakt\u0131r. Amerikal\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn paras\u0131n\u0131 1.5 TL\u2019lik kurdan dolara \u00e7evirdi\u011fini ve eline ge\u00e7en 71.3 dolarla \u00fclkesine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyon y\u00fczde 7 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk\u2019\u00fcn bu i\u015flemden elde etti\u011fi toplam getirinin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndaki 100 TL ile ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeydedir. Yani reel faiz s\u0131f\u0131r ve toplam sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fimi s\u0131f\u0131r olarak \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Bu durumda paras\u0131n\u0131 bir y\u0131l s\u00fcreyle kullanmay\u0131p da ba\u015fkas\u0131na kulland\u0131ran T\u00fcrk\u00fcn hi\u00e7bir kazanc\u0131 bulunmamaktad\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de enflasyon y\u00fczde 3 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in Amerikal\u0131n\u0131n elde etti\u011fi 71.3 dolar\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc 69.3 dolar olmu\u015ftur. Yani Amerikal\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta koydu\u011fu 66.7 dolar\u0131n\u0131 69.3 dolarl\u0131k bir sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kararak durumunu iyile\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Amerikal\u0131 bu faiz kazanc\u0131ndan kendi \u00fclkesinde vergi \u00f6dese bile pozitif getiri elde etmi\u015f olmaktad\u0131r. Amerikal\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan<br \/>\nbu i\u015flemin riski TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesidir. O zaman Amerikal\u0131 zarar edebilir. TL de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam ederse yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kazanc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer, s\u0131cak para \u00e7\u0131kar ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k daralmaya y\u00f6nelebilir. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e kendi kendisini dengeleyen bir mekanizma haline geliyor.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2011\/05\/16\/fft16_mf722250.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TL de\u011fer kaybetmeye devam ederse yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kazanc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer, s\u0131cak para \u00e7\u0131kar ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k daralmaya y\u00f6nelebilir. Ge\u00e7en g\u00fcnlerde dolar, TL\u2019nin de aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu \u00f6teki&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=235"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/235\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=235"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=235"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}