{"id":23368,"date":"2013-03-05T13:37:53","date_gmt":"2013-03-05T11:37:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=23368"},"modified":"2013-03-05T13:37:53","modified_gmt":"2013-03-05T11:37:53","slug":"reel-efektif-doviz-kuru-yorumum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/reel-efektif-doviz-kuru-yorumum\/","title":{"rendered":"Reel Efektif D\u00f6viz Kuru Yorumum"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131 ard\u0131ndan bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru (REK) hakk\u0131nda tahmin yapmak biraz daha kolayla\u015ft\u0131. Bu tahminimizi yapmadan \u00f6nce k\u0131saca <a href=\"http:\/\/www.uzeyirdogan.com\/?Syf=22&amp;Mkl=487827&amp;pt=%C3%9Czeyir%20Do%C4%9Fan&amp;Reel-Efektif-D%C3%B6viz-Kuru-Hakk%C4%B1nda-Bilinmesi-Gerekenler\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><strong>ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131m\u0131<\/strong><\/a> \u00f6zetlemekte ve T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuruna etki eden fakt\u00f6rleri s\u0131ralamakta fayda var.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><b>Se\u00e7ilen \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131 ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131:<\/b> TCMB \u015fu anki verinin hesaplanmas\u0131nda 2006-2008 d\u00f6nemi ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak seriye 36 \u00fclkeyi dahil ediyor. Veri setinde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu maddeden kaynakl\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik s\u00f6z konusu olmayacak.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1257219681\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><b>Yurti\u00e7i T\u00dcFE ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131:<\/b> Yukar\u0131da da bahsetti\u011fimiz gibi yurti\u00e7i T\u00dcFE rakam\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 reel efektif d\u00f6viz kurunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete neden olurken, yurti\u00e7i T\u00dcFE\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler REK\u2019te de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden olmaktad\u0131r. Endeksin hesaplanmas\u0131nda baz al\u0131nan \u00fclkelerdeki T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim ise bunun tam tersi etki yapmaktad\u0131r. Yani bu \u00fclkelerdeki T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f\u0131 REK\u2019i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmekte, T\u00dcFE\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ise REK\u2019i art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Elimizde olan verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u015fubat ay\u0131 rakamlar\u0131 ile birlikte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda T\u00dcFE %7,03\u2019e geriledi. \u015eubat ay\u0131 enflasyonunun ocak ay\u0131ndaki gibi k\u00f6t\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz yapmamas\u0131 ve sadece %0,30\u2019luk bir at\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 REK i\u00e7in de olumlu. Yurti\u00e7i T\u00dcFE rakam\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6receli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 REK art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak bir etken. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n hesaplamada kullan\u0131lan 36 \u00fclkenin enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda net bir bilgiye sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in bu \u00fclkeler kaynakl\u0131 T\u00dcFE etkisi hakk\u0131nda yorum yapam\u0131yoruz. Enflasyon baca\u011f\u0131nda bu bak\u0131mda sadece bir tahminde bulunuyoruz. Bu da T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 REK\u2019de yurti\u00e7i enflasyon kaynakl\u0131 olumsuz etkinin \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oluyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><b>Nominal Kurlar:<\/b> \u015eubat ay\u0131nda TL\u2019nin endekste a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan dolar, Euro ve \u00c7in Yunan\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00f6nemli para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda nominal olarak de\u011fer kaybetmesi, REK\u2019i de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecek bir unsur.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Bu 3 veri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fubat ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 REK\u2019in Ocak ay\u0131ndaki 120,16 rakam\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda beklemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeyiz. Bug\u00fcn 14:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 REK hakk\u0131nda net bir rakam veremesek de 117-119 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir rakam\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 benim i\u00e7in \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. Ama \u015funu belirtmekte de fayda var. Her ne kadar TCMB verinin hesaplanma y\u00f6ntemini detayl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde bizlerle payla\u015fsa da elimizdeki verilerle bu hesaplamay\u0131 yapmay\u0131 yapmak bizim i\u00e7in \u00e7ok da kolay de\u011fil. Bu nedenle biz \u015fuan i\u00e7in \u00e7ok kaba bir y\u00f6ntemle tahminde bulunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bu da yan\u0131lmam\u0131za neden olabilir. Bunu da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><b>\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN<br \/>\n<\/b><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir@uzeyirdogan.com\"><b>uzeyir@uzeyirdogan.com<\/b><\/a><b><br \/>\n<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.uzeyirdogan.com\/\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><b>www.uzeyirdogan.com<\/b><\/a><b><br \/>\nTwitter: uzeyir_dogan<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131 ard\u0131ndan bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan T\u00dcFE bazl\u0131 reel efektif d\u00f6viz kuru (REK) hakk\u0131nda tahmin yapmak biraz daha kolayla\u015ft\u0131. Bu tahminimizi yapmadan \u00f6nce&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23368\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}