{"id":22935,"date":"2013-02-08T11:22:00","date_gmt":"2013-02-08T09:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=22935"},"modified":"2013-02-08T11:22:10","modified_gmt":"2013-02-08T09:22:10","slug":"frene-fazla-mi-bastik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/frene-fazla-mi-bastik\/","title":{"rendered":"Frene Fazla m\u0131 Bast\u0131k?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 verileri bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en sene Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda, 2011\u2019in ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3,8 azalma s\u00f6z konusu. Bloomberg News’un anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin tahminlerine g\u00f6re ise,\u00a0sanayi \u00fcretimindeki daralman\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.4′ te kalmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gereken bir rakam. Herkes, 2013 senesine daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapaca\u011f\u0131z d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi i\u00e7indeyken, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim endeksinde ki daralma, bana g\u00f6re, 2013 senesinin ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011finin habercisi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile, 2012 senesini \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatm\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. Yak\u0131nda 2012 B\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 da a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r. Son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye giren do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015flerine bakal\u0131m. 36 milyar $. Ocak \u2013 Kas\u0131m 2012 d\u00f6neminde ise, portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 35 milyar $. Do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m ise net\u00a0 7,5 milyar $. Asl\u0131nda bu veriler bize \u00e7ok \u015fey anlat\u0131yor. \u00d6demeler dengesinden portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131n, Do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ne durumda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcn l\u00fctfen. Avrupa\u2019da i\u015fler kar\u0131\u015fmaya devam ediyor. Muhtemelen, R\u00f6nesans k\u0131tas\u0131, 2013 de patinaj yapmaya devam edecek. \u0130talya ve \u0130spanya faizleri y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131\u00a0 ikinci \u00e7eyrek art\u0131k \u00e7ok \u00f6nem kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ancak \u015funu da belirtmekte yarar var ki, T\u00fcrkiye ithalata dayal\u0131\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece frene daha \u00e7ok basaca\u011f\u0131z gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmek ad\u0131na 2012 de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi feda ettik. Acaba\u00a0 frene fazla m\u0131 bast\u0131k\u00a0 ?<\/p>

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