{"id":22810,"date":"2013-02-01T08:44:30","date_gmt":"2013-02-01T06:44:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=22810"},"modified":"2013-02-01T08:44:30","modified_gmt":"2013-02-01T06:44:30","slug":"ana-destegimiz-olmasa-da-onemli-bir-destek-noktasindayiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ana-destegimiz-olmasa-da-onemli-bir-destek-noktasindayiz\/","title":{"rendered":"Ana deste\u011fimiz olmasa da \u00f6nemli bir destek noktas\u0131nday\u0131z"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u0130MKB\u2019deki panik havas\u0131 d\u00fcn de devam etti. G\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde y\u00fckseli\u015f iste\u011fi dikkat \u00e7eken \u0130MKB\u2019de g\u00fcn\u00fcn son yar\u0131m saatinde gelen sat\u0131\u015flar dikkat \u00e7ekiciydi. Bununla birlikte g\u00fcn sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanan Garanti Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kar\u0131 da beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Fakat Garanti Bankas\u0131\u2019ndaki bu haberin kamuoyuna seans kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtelim. Son yar\u0131m saatte gelen sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n nedeni ne olursa olsun, tedirginli\u011fin devam etti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130MKB\u2019de ciddi bir toparlanma iste\u011fi olsa da, al\u0131m yapanlar\u0131n yukar\u0131daki hedeflerden \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki stop loss noktalar\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, ufak d\u00fczeltmelerin dahi pani\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olabiliyor. Bu psikolojinin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130MKB\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacimli, volatilitesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fcnler g\u00f6rmemiz gerekece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130MKB 100\u2019de \u00f6nemli bir destek noktas\u0131nday\u0131z. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ve kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan son dalga y\u00fckseli\u015fin d\u00fczeltmesinde %50 seviyesinin bulundu\u011fu 78,350\/78,550 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcn takip edece\u011fimiz en \u00f6nemli nokta. Endeks bu b\u00f6lgeden bir tepki ba\u015flatmak isteyebilir. Bu tepki ba\u015flayacak olur ise ilk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 80,550 olacakt\u0131r. 80,500 \u00fczerinde ise 81,750 \u015fuan i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerdeki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 noktas\u0131. Fakat endeks bahsetti\u011fimiz bu tepkiyi yapamayacak olur ve 78,350\u2019nin de alt\u0131na sarkacak olur ise bizim d\u00fczeltmede ana hedef olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 76,300 ve belki de bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n da yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 74,000\/74,500 b\u00f6lgesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u015euan i\u00e7in bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal versek de, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc zamanlar gibi pani\u011fin ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla volatilitenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde grafiklerden ba\u015fka klavuz aramak yanl\u0131\u015f olur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesindeyiz. Grafik de \u015fuan bize 78,350\u2019nin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda beklemeye devam edilmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>

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