{"id":2274,"date":"2011-07-01T10:17:56","date_gmt":"2011-07-01T07:17:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2274"},"modified":"2011-07-01T10:18:05","modified_gmt":"2011-07-01T07:18:05","slug":"hizliyiz-ama-yavasliyoruz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hizliyiz-ama-yavasliyoruz\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u0131zl\u0131y\u0131z Ama Yava\u015fl\u0131yoruz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00dc\u0130K 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde ekonomi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 11 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonominin beklentinin \u00f6tesinde bir h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu h\u0131z bizi d\u00fcnyada birinci s\u0131raya y\u00fckseltip, b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u015fampiyonu yap\u0131yor. Bizden sonra Arjantin hemen arkas\u0131ndan da \u00c7in geliyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1610579713\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131\u00a0 bu s\u00fcrecin karakteri hakk\u0131nda daha net bilgi veriyor. Bunun i\u00e7in\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve ivmesini de de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor. Kaynak dedi\u011fimde i\u015fin harcama i\u015faret ediyorum. Burada b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00e7ekip, h\u0131zland\u0131ran talep unsurlar\u0131 var. Bizde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131\u00a0 iki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri aras\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 olarak hesaplan\u0131yor. \u00d6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan, man\u015fetlere ta\u015f\u0131nan ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda lanse edilen say\u0131 bu. Bir de daha k\u0131sa aral\u0131kta, birbirini takip eden iki \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nem aras\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 var. \u0130vme dedi\u011fim de bu h\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p>Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi (BETAM) makroekonomik de\u011ferlendirmeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel bir referans haline geldi. Bu d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in\u00a0\u00a0 S. G\u00fcrsel- A.Akta\u015f ve B. Soybilgin taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan rapor bize gerekli olan ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bilgiyi veriyor. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011findeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin temel kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 12.1 artm\u0131\u015f. BETAM bunun\u00a0 ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.7 olarak hesaplam\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131 \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan gelmi\u015f. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 38.3 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 bu d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fcksek tempoya katk\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.2 oran\u0131nda olmu\u015f. \u00d6te yandan ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 7.7 olan ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00fczde 1.8 oran\u0131nda katk\u0131 sa\u011flarken,\u00a0 y\u00fczde 27 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ithalat da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ters y\u00f6nde etkilemi\u015f ve y\u00fczde 7.4 oran\u0131nda bir yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131 etki sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve bunun b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle i\u00e7 talep-harcama \u00e7eki\u015fli bir\u00a0 performans olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yap\u0131lan hesaplar\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 11&#8217;e\u00a0 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, yani h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0 Birbirini takip eden iki \u00e7eyrek aras\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi mevsim ve takvim etkisine g\u00f6re d\u00fczelterek yap\u0131lan hesaplar ise farkl\u0131 bir ayr\u0131nt\u0131ya dikkati \u00e7ekiyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi olarak niteledi\u011fim bu hesap 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine k\u0131yasla bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonominin y\u00fczde 1.4 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ntemle yap\u0131lan bir \u00f6nceki hesaptan\u00a0 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekleri aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 3.6 oldu\u011funu anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Yani ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde neredeyse yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Durumu h\u0131zl\u0131y\u0131z ama yava\u015fl\u0131yoruz diyerek \u00f6zetlemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemi kestirmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir bulgu bu.<\/p>\n<p>BETAM&#8217;\u0131n mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131rarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k bazdaki hesaplar ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fine\u00a0 k\u0131yasla t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n da bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde h\u0131z kesti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 2010 son \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 3.4 olan \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131z keserek bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fcde 2.1 d\u00fczeyine geriledi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 da yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalarak y\u00fczde 1.5 oran\u0131na gerilemi\u015f.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2740800887\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00d6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda da benzer bir durum var ama ivme kayb\u0131 \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck. 2010 ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 19.3 artm\u0131\u015f olan \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131\u00a0\u00a0 2011 ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ayda y\u00fczde 2.5 oran\u0131na kadar gerilemi\u015f. \u00d6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli yava\u015flama bu talep unsurunun b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fczde 3.7 d\u00fczeyinden 2011 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0.5 oran\u0131na kadar geriletmi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesindeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n neredeyse b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle \u00f6zel harcamalardaki yava\u015flamadan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu da durumu anlamam\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir bulgu.<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme say\u0131lar\u0131 merakla bekleniyordu. Gelen say\u0131lar merakl\u0131 beklemeyi bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kartmad\u0131. Bulgular bug\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u0131s\u0131nma, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, iktisat politikas\u0131 vb gibi konular\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ilgin\u00e7 ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bunlar\u0131 da tart\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Prof. Dr. Taner BERKSOY<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1175436588\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00dc\u0130K 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde ekonomi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 11 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonominin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2274"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2274\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}