{"id":22689,"date":"2013-01-29T08:19:31","date_gmt":"2013-01-29T06:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=22689"},"modified":"2013-01-29T08:19:48","modified_gmt":"2013-01-29T06:19:48","slug":"seans-oncesi-0845-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-oncesi-0845-12\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u00d6ncesi&#8230; 08:45"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn borsadaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131nda genel olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u00f6n bulmakta olduk\u00e7a zorlan\u0131rlar. Bu t\u00fcr zamanlarda, izlenmesi gereken en \u00f6nemli iki parametre; i\u015flem miktar\u0131 ve fiyatlard\u0131r. \u0130MKB100 endeksi \u00fczerinde ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemler baz al\u0131narak yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda \u00f6nemli bir <strong>anomali<\/strong> ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. \u00a0K\u0131saca bu anomaliyi a\u00e7\u0131klamakta fayda var. Anomaliler, s\u0131k s\u0131k ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmayan ama ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda birbirine benzer ve tahmin edilebilir hareketlerin oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerdir. \u00a0Borsa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en \u00f6nemli mesaj &#8220;herkes al\u0131rken sen sat, herkes satarken sen al&#8221; kural\u0131d\u0131r. Bu kural, kar\u015f\u0131t yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (piyasan\u0131n aksine davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 savunanlar) taraf\u0131ndan \u00a0savunulmaktad\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3746395280\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Endeks son \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u00fcre baz al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6 (%5.99) de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015ftir. 2008 krizi sonras\u0131nda endeksin \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 6 veya daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi d\u00f6rt tane durum var. Yani bu anomali 2009&#8217;dan beri d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc defa ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011fi t\u0131klayarak bu d\u00f6nemleri g\u00f6rebilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-dususler.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-22690\" alt=\"xu100 dususler\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-dususler-300x162.png\" width=\"300\" height=\"162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-dususler-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-dususler-1024x553.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-dususler.png 1362w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Herkesin satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yer neresidir? Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin hepsinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bir ger\u00e7ek var ki, dip seviyelerin olu\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda i\u015flem miktarlar\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oranda art\u0131yor. 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama i\u015flem miktar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yani endeks h\u0131za de\u011fer kaybederken, bir noktada herkes satmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. \u0130\u015flem miktar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n sebebi bu. \u00a0Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 hata ise; i\u015flem miktar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada \u00a0stop yapmak ya da sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7mektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc genellikle izleyen bir veya en ge\u00e7 iki haftada endeks eski seviyelerine yeniden d\u00f6nebiliyor ve satm\u0131\u015f olanlar zaten yeniden al\u0131m yapam\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnk\u00fc olayda da, 20 dakikal\u0131k bazda tarihi i\u015flem hacmi rekoru k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ve 100 milyon lotun \u00fczerinde i\u015flem oldu. Bir bak\u0131ma en az\u0131ndan herkesin dayanamay\u0131p satmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk yer olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ecektir.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-20dak.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-22692\" alt=\"xu100-20dak\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-20dak.png\" width=\"404\" height=\"332\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-20dak.png 404w, https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/xu100-20dak-300x246.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 404px) 100vw, 404px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yani borsada s\u00f6ylenilen &#8220;herkes satarken&#8221; denilen yere yak\u0131n bir yer olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bug\u00fcnden itibaren 80.250&#8217;ye kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hala olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, art\u0131k 82.500 alt\u0131nda stop yerine, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olduk\u00e7a kademeli al\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 1-2 hafta i\u00e7inde endeksin yeniden 84.000-85.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na gelmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbelere ve anomalilere g\u00f6re y\u00fcksektir. Herkesin satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerin en \u00f6nemli \u00f6zelliklerinden biri de tahtalarda kademelerin bo\u015falmas\u0131 ve al\u0131\u015f ve sat\u0131\u015f emirlerinin minimum seviyeye d\u00fc\u015fmesidir. D\u00fcn bunlar da oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar derslerle doludur. Bug\u00fcn elbette ki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar temkinli olacaklard\u0131r. Herkesin satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 en dip seviyeyi yakalamak elbetteki ki kimsenin harc\u0131 de\u011fildir. Ama mant\u0131k ve \u00f6nceki tecr\u00fcbeler, 82.500 veya alt\u0131ndaki seviyelerin art\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f de\u011fil, kademeli k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gereken yerler olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. D\u00fcn olan \u015fey budur.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetleyecek olursak, d\u00fcnk\u00fc sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f banka hisselerinde oldu ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 10&#8217;a varan de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131lar. \u00a0Moodys&#8217;den saat 15:50 civar\u0131nda haber gelmi\u015f ve notumuzun artmayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00a0Borsa \u00e7ok sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. D\u00fcn iki bankada \u00a0Saat 16:40 civar\u0131nda al\u0131m \u00f6nerdim. Endeksin 1500 puan daha gerileme yapabilece\u011fini vurgulayarak bu al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nerdi\u011fim gibi, zarara katlanacaklar als\u0131n dedim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc volatilite \u00e7ok y\u00fcksekti ve stoplar her an \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilirdi. Bunlar Garanti ve Akbank&#8217;t\u0131. AL\u0131m \u00f6nerisi tablosu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki \u015fekildeydi;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/oneriler-2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"oneriler-2\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/oneriler-2.png\" width=\"644\" height=\"121\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer biri AKBANK al\u0131r da stop yapmak zorunda kal\u0131rsa (9.44\/9.36-1 = %0.85) zarar edecekti. Ya da Garanti al\u0131rsa (9.40\/9.30-1=%1.06) \u00a0zarar edecekti. \u00a0Sat\u0131\u015flar o s\u0131rada hala bask\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1069423127\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar tam da hep b\u00f6yle zamanlarda, panik sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7iyorlard\u0131. \u00a0D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zland\u0131k\u00e7a h\u0131zlan\u0131yor ve art\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 dayanam\u0131yordu. \u00a0 Bu t\u00fcr ortamda, sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 veya stoplar\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 gerekliydi. Stop&#8217;un \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 yer en \u00f6nemli destek olan 84.150 seviyesinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerdi. Fakat bu a\u015famadan sonra yap\u0131lacak sat\u0131\u015flar \u00a0hem teknik hem de mant\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan anlams\u0131zd\u0131. Borsan\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fi hep b\u00f6yle g\u00fcnlerle doluydu. Herkesin t\u0131rst\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve herkesin sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ti\u011fi yerde al\u0131m \u00f6nerdim. \u00a0\u00dcstelik bug\u00fcne kadar hi\u00e7 banka hissesi \u00f6nermeyen ve bankalardan uzak durulmal\u0131 diyen ben, banka \u00f6nerdim.<\/p>\n<p>Stoplar \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve seans bitmeden \u00f6nce twitter&#8217;dan tekrar al\u0131m \u00f6nerdim. O s\u0131rada GARANTI \u00a09.20, AKBANK da \u00a09.22 seviyesindeydi. Akbank 9.30&#8217;dan kapan\u0131rken, Garanti 9.18&#8217;den kapand\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik banka endeksinin daha \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerdeki davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcp inceleyiniz, panik yap\u0131p 82 bin civar\u0131nda satanlar\u0131n izleyen 1-2 hafta i\u00e7inde nas\u0131l duygular i\u00e7inde olabilece\u011fini bu grafikler anlat\u0131yor&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/endeks-dususler2.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"endeks dususler2\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/endeks-dususler2-300x162.png\" width=\"300\" height=\"162\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Grafi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fctmek i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-793846071\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00a0Herkese bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00a0olmas\u0131n\u0131 diliyorum. \u00a0D\u00fcnk\u00fc volatileden sonra bug\u00fcn endeksin hacmi d\u00fc\u015febilir. Endeks hala gerileyebilir. \u00d6nemli olan bug\u00fcn de\u011fil, 1-2 hafta sonras\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn borsadaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131nda genel olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u00f6n bulmakta olduk\u00e7a zorlan\u0131rlar. Bu t\u00fcr zamanlarda, izlenmesi gereken en \u00f6nemli iki parametre; i\u015flem miktar\u0131 ve fiyatlard\u0131r.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22689"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22689\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}