{"id":2266,"date":"2011-07-01T10:11:29","date_gmt":"2011-07-01T07:11:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2266"},"modified":"2011-07-01T10:11:39","modified_gmt":"2011-07-01T07:11:39","slug":"isindi-mi-isinmadi-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/isindi-mi-isinmadi-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Is\u0131nd\u0131 m\u0131, Is\u0131nmad\u0131 m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir oldu\u011funda iyidir. Yoksa kaynak israf\u0131na neden olur. \u0130sraf olacak olan, \u00f6zel kesimin kaynaklar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1352889539\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki g\u00fcncel iktisat politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 moralinizi bozmuyor mu? Benimkini bozuyor. Bug\u00fcn m\u00fcsaadenizle ortadaki \u2018son derece engin\u2019(!) \u2018\u0131s\u0131nd\u0131 m\u0131, \u0131s\u0131nmad\u0131 m\u0131?\u2019 muhabbetine bir dokunay\u0131m. Haz\u0131r d\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ekonomimiz 2011\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde beklentilerin \u00fczerinde, i\u00e7 talebe dayal\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Zaman\u0131d\u0131r. Ekonomi h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00fcretim toparlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? Evet, \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Peki, bunun g\u00f6stergesi var m\u0131d\u0131r? Elbette vard\u0131r. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, bizatihi tam da bunun en temel g\u00f6stergesidir. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k tarihi d\u00fczeyde ise ekonomimizdeki \u0131s\u0131nma da tarihi d\u00fczeyde demektir. Dikkatli olmakta fayda vard\u0131r. Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminde temkin iyidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00f6ng\u00fcsel bir hareket <\/strong><br \/>\nBu durum sonradan b\u00f6yle olmu\u015f da de\u011fildir. Ezelden beri b\u00f6yledir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin problemi y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131na eri\u015febilmek de\u011fil, bu oranlar\u0131 birka\u00e7 y\u0131ldan fazla devam ettirememektir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 1980\u2019den beri b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 bir \u00e7izgi grafi\u011fe yerle\u015ftirseniz, ne g\u00f6r\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz? B\u00fcy\u00fcme maceras\u0131n\u0131n bir testerenin a\u011fz\u0131 gibi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz. Testereden tek fark\u0131m\u0131z, bizim grafikte testerenin di\u015flerinin simetrik olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi bir y\u0131l y\u00fczde 7 b\u00fcy\u00fcr, sonra y\u00fczde 5,5\u2019e iner, sonra olur y\u00fczde 0,5, ertesi y\u0131l kesin eksi b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Bir kriz olur ve arada b\u00fcy\u00fcyen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00fczeltme gelir. \u0130stikrar bozulur. Yeniden tedbir al\u0131n\u0131r. H\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme varsa, nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 hep bellidir. Bu bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel harekettir. Ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme maceras\u0131, birka\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemlerini bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme d\u00f6neminin takip etmesi ile neticelenir. Bu durum ekonominin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme stratejisine sahip olmamas\u0131 ile yak\u0131ndan alakal\u0131d\u0131r. Stratejisi olmayan ekonomi y\u00f6netilemez.<br \/>\nGelelim \u0131s\u0131nma mevzuuna. Bir ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131 demek, o ekonomideki toplam talebin, \u00fclkenin \u00fcretim kapasitesini zorlamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 demektir. Artan talep ilk a\u015famada ekonominin temel kaynak k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131na \u00e7arpmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kendi imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 ile bu artan talebi kar\u015f\u0131layabilme \u015fans\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, kaynak k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fman\u0131n yolu yabanc\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye do\u011fru akmas\u0131d\u0131r. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, ekonomimizdeki kaynak k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesidir ve temel makro iktisadi dengesizlik kayna\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ilk noktad\u0131r. Geleyim ikinci noktaya: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bug\u00fcnlerde bir iktisadi program\u0131 var m\u0131d\u0131r? Sorarsan\u0131z, Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) vard\u0131r. Peki, 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in OVP\u2019de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 nedir? Bakarsan\u0131z, s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 6,8 ve y\u00fczde 4,5\u2019tir. \u0130mdi, OVP e\u011fer h\u00fck\u00fcmetimizin program\u0131ysa, 2010 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 6,8\u2019i, 2011 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4,5\u2019i a\u015farken, ekonomi, politika parametreleri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u0131s\u0131nmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f demektir. Bu durumda, temkinli bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2010 ve 2011\u2019de, 2009\u2019da uygulamaya konulan, geni\u015fletici para ve maliye politikalar\u0131ndan nas\u0131l \u00e7\u0131k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00e7izmesi gerekir. \u00d6yle mi olmu\u015ftur? Politika parametreleri de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? Hay\u0131r. Tam tersine, de\u011fil politika parametrelerini s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak tedbir alma temkinlili\u011fini g\u00f6stermek, \u201c2011 b\u00fct\u00e7esi geni\u015fletici maliye politikas\u0131 i\u00e7ermektedir\u201d diyen uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015f raporlar\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131m\u0131 engellenmi\u015ftir. Bu durumda, OVP de yoksa el yordam\u0131 ile gidiyoruz demektir. Bu k\u00f6t\u00fcd\u00fcr.<br \/>\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc nokta ise \u015fudur: TEPAV Mali \u0130zleme Raporlar\u0131\u2019nda da vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, 2009 ve 2010\u2019da yap\u0131sal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmemi\u015f, \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Tek seferlik gelirler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fazla neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131ra dayanm\u0131\u015f gibi durmaktad\u0131r. 2011 i\u00e7in de yap\u0131sal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, geni\u015fletici bir politika perspektifine i\u015faret etmektedir. Bunu 2009 i\u00e7in anlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Hadi \u015fimdiye kadar\u0131n\u0131 da anlayal\u0131m, se\u00e7im vard\u0131. Ancak bu d\u00f6nemin art\u0131k sona erdi\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131kla ifade edilmesi, kaybedilen politika kredibilitesinin geri kazan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir oldu\u011funda iyidir. Yoksa kaynak israf\u0131na neden olur. \u0130sraf olacak olan, \u00f6zel kesimin kaynaklar\u0131d\u0131r. 2011\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki y\u00fczde 11\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 12 Haziran se\u00e7imlerine dayal\u0131 geni\u015fletici politikalardand\u0131r. Se\u00e7im art\u0131k bitmi\u015ftir. Art\u0131k tedbir alma zaman\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fcven SAK<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir oldu\u011funda iyidir. Yoksa kaynak israf\u0131na neden olur. \u0130sraf olacak olan, \u00f6zel kesimin kaynaklar\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki g\u00fcncel iktisat politikas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 moralinizi bozmuyor mu? Benimkini&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2266\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}