{"id":2225,"date":"2011-06-30T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2011-06-30T06:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2225"},"modified":"2011-06-30T10:31:12","modified_gmt":"2011-06-30T07:31:12","slug":"milli-gelir-ve-dis-ticaret-hadleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/milli-gelir-ve-dis-ticaret-hadleri\/","title":{"rendered":"Milli Gelir ve D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Hadleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn T\u00dc\u0130K iki \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor:\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>\u0130lk<\/strong><\/span><\/a> \u00e7eyrek milli geliri ve may\u0131s d\u0131\u015f ticareti. \u0130kisinin de \u00e7ift haneli \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ihtimali y\u00fcksektir. Her milli gelir verisinden sonra \u00f6l\u00e7me sorunlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemi i\u015fgal eder. Bu kez de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin dolarla gelir \u015fu kadar artt\u0131 diye \u015fi\u015finece\u011fine eminim. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar do\u011fru hesab\u0131n sabit TL fiyatlar\u0131 ile yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyecektir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1399009316\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Refah\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesinde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lan sorunlar\u0131ndan birine bu s\u00fctunda yeni de\u011findim. Se\u00e7im-ekonomi ili\u015fkisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan TL ile milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeterli bilgi ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yordu. D\u00f6viz sepetini de kullanarak\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>\u00f6zel<\/strong><\/span><\/a> t\u00fcketimi \u00f6l\u00e7t\u00fck. Daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir sonuca ula\u015ft\u0131k. Bug\u00fcn milli gelir hesab\u0131n\u0131n en ciddi y\u00f6ntem sorunlar\u0131ndan birine girmek istiyorum. S\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir iktisat dersine benzeyebilir. Kusura bakmay\u0131n. Maalesef \u00fcniversitede de okutulmaz. Halbuki d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k ba\u011flam\u0131nda bizi \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan ilgilendiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131nca<\/p>\n<p>Son d\u00f6nemde hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015flar milli gelir hesab\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir zafiyetini de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc reel milli gelir asl\u0131nda bir t\u00fcr miktar endeksidir. Nispi fiyatlarda ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erir. Basit bir model \u00fczerinden gidelim. \u0130ki sekt\u00f6rl\u00fc bir ekonomi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim: Petrol\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span><\/a> hizmetler. Ad\u0131 Arabiya, paras\u0131 dinar (D) olsun. Petrol yerine soya fasulyesini koyup Brezilya (Arjantin vs.) diyebiliriz. Kolayl\u0131k olsun diye milli geliri 100 D alal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00fcretimi \u015f\u00f6yle: Petrol 67 D; hizmetler 33 D. Arabiya petrol\u00fcn yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ihra\u00e7 edip geliri<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>ile<\/strong><\/span><\/a> sanayi mallar\u0131 ithal ediyor. Ertesi y\u0131l iki sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn de \u00fcretimi ayn\u0131 kals\u0131n. Bu durumda sabit Dinar fiyatlar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131f\u0131rd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ama ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde petrol\u00fcn d\u00fcnya fiyat\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131ks\u0131n. Nominal milli gelir y\u00fczde 66 daha y\u00fcksektir: 167 D (petrol 134 D +\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>hizmet<\/strong><\/span><\/a> 33 D). Kur sabit kal\u0131rsa dolar cinsinden milli gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 67\u2019dir. Sorun a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. \u00dcretim ve reel milli gelir sabittir. Ancak ayn\u0131 miktar petrol iki kat\u0131 mal-hizmet sat\u0131n almaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile \u00fcretim artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde \u00fclkenin refah\u0131 y\u00fczde 33 y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Fark\u0131 ithalatla t\u00fcketir. Ya da d\u0131\u015f varl\u0131k sat\u0131n al\u0131r. Zenginin paras\u0131&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130thalat fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131nca<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkeye (T\u00fcrkiye) bakal\u0131m. \u0130lk y\u0131l verileri: Milli gelir 100 TL; sanayi 66.6 TL; hizmetler 33.3 TL. \u00dclke sanayi \u00fcretiminin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ihra\u00e7 edip geliri ile petrol ithal ediyor. Ertesi y\u0131l \u00fcretim gene ayn\u0131 fakat petrol fiyat\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1069776592\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Sabit TL fiyatlar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131f\u0131rd\u0131r. Sabit kurda dolarla milli gelir y\u00fczde 33 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak sat\u0131n alabildi\u011fi petrol miktar\u0131 yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalm\u0131\u015f, yani refah\u0131 y\u00fczde 17 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u0130thalat\u0131 azaltabilir. Ya da varl\u0131k sat\u0131p ithalat\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr. Mirasyedi misali&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Milli gelirle refah aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011f\u0131n kopmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni nispi fiyatlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimidir. D\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri deniyor. Lehte olunca refahtaki de\u011fi\u015fim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, aleyhte olunca fazla \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yani sabit yerli fiyatla milli gelir hesab\u0131 ger\u00e7ek durumu yans\u0131tm\u0131yor. Basit modelde enflasyon ve kur dinamiklerini ihmal ettik. Eklenmesi sonucu de\u011fi\u015ftirmez. D\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerinin seyri iktisat politikas\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6neme sahiptir. Akl\u0131mda Brezilya-T\u00fcrkiye mukayeseleri var. Aman, dikkat&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Asaf \u00a0Sava\u015f AKAT<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn T\u00dc\u0130K iki \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor:\u00a0\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek milli geliri ve may\u0131s d\u0131\u015f ticareti. \u0130kisinin de \u00e7ift haneli \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ihtimali y\u00fcksektir. Her milli gelir verisinden sonra&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2225\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}