{"id":2218,"date":"2011-06-30T09:35:18","date_gmt":"2011-06-30T06:35:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2218"},"modified":"2011-06-30T10:27:42","modified_gmt":"2011-06-30T07:27:42","slug":"sifir-reel-faiz-meselesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sifir-reel-faiz-meselesi\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u0131f\u0131r Reel Faiz Meselesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bankalardaki mevduat\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 \u015fu andaki d\u00fczeyinde de\u011fil de 1980 \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeyinde kalsayd\u0131 ne olurdu?<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-567590\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Biraz ge\u00e7mi\u015fe gideyim: Bankalardaki toplam mevduat\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 1970-79 d\u00f6neminde ortalama y\u00fczde 14.5 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Bu de\u011fer 1980-89 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 18.7, 1990-99 d\u00f6neminde ise y\u00fczde 23.2 oldu. 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda ayn\u0131 oran y\u00fczde 43.3, 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 55.8 d\u00fczeyindeydi.<br \/>\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131, yani k\u0131sa vadeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli ekonomik sorunu ne? Yan\u0131t\u0131 olduk\u00e7a basit: Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek ve bu y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131k neredeyse t\u00fcm\u00fcyle k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015fleri ile finanse ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tasarruflar yetmiyor <\/strong><br \/>\nK\u0131sa vadeyi bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131p orta-uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcnce ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan temel sorun da \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 de\u011fil: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin potansiyeli, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerle aras\u0131ndaki gelir farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatmaya yetmiyor. \u2018Potansiyel\u2019 derken, son elli y\u0131l\u0131n, son 30 y\u0131l\u0131n ya da son on y\u0131l\u0131n ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131ndan s\u00f6z ediyorum. Hangi d\u00f6nemi al\u0131rsan\u0131z fark etmiyor; y\u00fczde 4.5 civar\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu h\u0131z\u0131n \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz y\u0131llarda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekor k\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc potansiyelimizin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n tasarruflar\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyuyoruz. Kendi tasarruflar\u0131m\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 artt\u0131rmaya yetmiyor.<br \/>\nK\u0131sacas\u0131, k\u0131sa d\u00f6neme baksan\u0131z da, vazge\u00e7ip y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fc uzun d\u00f6neme d\u00f6nd\u00fcrseniz de kar\u015f\u0131n\u0131za bir cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bunu biraz de\u015fince ise sorunun temel nedenlerinden biri olarak yurti\u00e7i tasarruf d\u00fczeyimizin yetersizli\u011fi hemen kendini belli ediyor.<br \/>\nYaz\u0131n\u0131n ilk paragraf\u0131ndaki rakamlara d\u00f6neyim. 1980 \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemindeki toplam mevduat\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu, san\u0131r\u0131m dikkatinizden ka\u00e7mam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Zamanla bu oran\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi de. Bir noktay\u0131 hat\u0131rlatay\u0131m: 1980 \u00f6ncesi mevduat d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda pek bir tasarruf arac\u0131 yok (alt\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda). Oysa \u015fimdi mevduat d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tasarruflar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilecek farkl\u0131 mali ara\u00e7lar var. Yine de bu basit kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bile, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz d\u00f6nemde, 1980 \u00f6ncesi ile k\u0131yas bile kabul etmeyecek d\u00fczeyde, bankalar\u0131n kredi olarak a\u00e7abilecekleri \u00f6nemli miktarda kaynaklar\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1980 \u00f6ncesine dikkat <\/strong><br \/>\nSorular \u015funlar: Bankalardaki mevduat, (milli gelire oranla) \u015fu andaki d\u00fczeyinde de\u011fil de 1980 \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeyinde kalsayd\u0131 ne olurdu? T\u00fcrkiye ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir miydi? Ya da ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcse, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 acaba \u015fu andaki rekorunu ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131rd\u0131?<br \/>\nPeki, buraya kadar anlatt\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131n ve bu sorular\u0131n yaz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ilgisi ne? Yan\u0131t, 1980 \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00f6nemin temel \u00f6zelliklerinden birinde gizli: Mevduat ve kredi faizini devlet belirliyor. \u00d6rnek: 1974-1977 d\u00f6neminde bir y\u0131ll\u0131k mevduat faizi y\u00fczde 9, alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k faiz ise y\u00fczde 6 d\u00fczeyinde. Y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 1978\u2019de y\u00fczde 12\u2019ye, 1979\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye y\u00fckseltilmi\u015f. Bu y\u0131llar\u0131n enflasyon oranlar\u0131n\u0131 veriyorum \u015fimdi: 1974-1977: Y\u00fczde 20.6, 1978: Y\u00fczde 49.6, 1979: Y\u00fczde 56.5. K\u0131sacas\u0131, saptanan faizler enflasyon d\u00fczeyleri ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131klar\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeydeler. Yani, reel faizler s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda.<br \/>\nSoru \u015fimdi \u015fu: O d\u00f6nemdeki \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck mevduat d\u00fczeyi ile reel faizlerin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 ili\u015fkili mi? Reel faizler s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda de\u011fil de s\u0131f\u0131r d\u00fczeyinde olsa sonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fir miydi? \u0130lk sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131, \u201cElbette, yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkililer\u201d \u015feklinde. \u0130kinci sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131 ise \u201cSonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmezdi\u201d bi\u00e7iminde. \u2018S\u0131f\u0131r d\u00fczeyinde reel faiz\u2019e bir de bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bakmakta yarar var.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fatih \u00d6ZATAY<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bankalardaki mevduat\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 \u015fu andaki d\u00fczeyinde de\u011fil de 1980 \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeyinde kalsayd\u0131 ne olurdu? Biraz ge\u00e7mi\u015fe gideyim: Bankalardaki toplam mevduat\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2218","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2218"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2218\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}