{"id":2154,"date":"2011-06-29T09:40:53","date_gmt":"2011-06-29T06:40:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2154"},"modified":"2011-06-29T09:41:04","modified_gmt":"2011-06-29T06:41:04","slug":"siyasal-tikanma-belirsizlik-uretir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/siyasal-tikanma-belirsizlik-uretir\/","title":{"rendered":"Siyasal T\u0131kanma Belirsizlik \u00dcretir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan gelen s\u00fcre\u00e7 biraz bulan\u0131k oldu. Yeni parlemento daha i\u015fe ba\u015flamadan gerilim y\u00fckl\u00fc bir hale geldi. Siyasetteki t\u0131kanma g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn devreye girmesi ile ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan\u00a0 belki de en son isteyece\u011fimiz bir durum \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ortaya.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-583840511\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Siyasi sorun bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 a\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r\u00a0 ku\u015fkusuz. Ancak siyasi t\u0131kanman\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da yarataca\u011f\u0131 baz\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar da var. Bu siyasi tablo ekonomide ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck belirsizlik \u00fcretiyor. Hem uluslararas\u0131 iktisadi ko\u015fullar\u0131n ters d\u00f6nmesi hem de ulusal ekonominin bir s\u00fcredir h\u0131z\u00a0 kesmesi zaten yeterince belirsizlik \u00fcretiyordu. \u015eimdi bunun \u00fczerine bir de siyasi t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizlik ekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Piyasa ekonomilerinde belirsizli\u011fin en alt d\u00fczeyde oldu\u011fu, akt\u00f6rlerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc rahatca g\u00f6rebildikleri ko\u015fullar ideal say\u0131l\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yo\u011funla\u015fan\u00a0 belirsizli\u011fin de \u00f6nemli sorunlar \u00fcretti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcr. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonomiyi y\u00f6netenler kendileri belirsizlik \u00fcretmekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131r, olas\u0131 belirsizlik bulutlar\u0131n\u0131 da gecikmeden da\u011f\u0131tmaya \u00f6zen g\u00f6sterirler.<\/p>\n<p>Belirsizlik baz\u0131 miktar ve fiyatlar\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiler. Fiyat miktar aras\u0131ndaki ola\u011fan etkile\u015fim de\u00a0 do\u011frudan etkileri daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcterek u\u00e7 noktalara ta\u015f\u0131r. Belirsizli\u011fin do\u011frudan etkiledi\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckler aras\u0131nda t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 \u00f6nde gelir. Buradaki etkile\u015fim a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rmekte zorlanan t\u00fcketiciler adeta i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fcsel olarak t\u00fcketimlerini erteler, t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sarlar.<\/p>\n<p>Artan belirsizli\u011fin\u00a0 \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi belki t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olur. Belirsizlik yat\u0131r\u0131m yapacak akt\u00f6rler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nlerini g\u00f6rememe, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hesap yapamama gibi bir sorun do\u011furur. Piyasa ekonomilerinde hesap yapmadan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmaz. K\u0131s\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 toplam talebe ek bir daralma ivmesi getirir, b\u00fcyme temposunu daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomide belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131 risk \u00fcretir. \u00d6zellikle ulusal risk (sovereign risk) b\u00fcy\u00fcr.\u00a0 Ulusal riskin y\u00fckselmesi riske duyarl\u0131 olan faiz, d\u00f6viz kuru vb gibi temel fiyatlara hemen ve do\u011frudan yans\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, kayna\u011f\u0131 ne olursa olsun, artan belirsizli\u011fin fiyat etkisi y\u00fckselen faiz, y\u00fckselen d\u00f6viz kuru ve de\u011fer kaybeden ulusal para \u015feklinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. Bu fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi\u00a0 toplam talebi daraltarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi daha da yava\u015flat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131 ekonomide belirsizlik \u00fcretmenin maliyeti \u00fcretim kayb\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik olarak \u00f6denir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-684374692\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bu noktaya kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz genel diskuru T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine indirebiliriz \u015fimdi.\u00a0 Siyasal t\u0131kanma ve onun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizlik asl\u0131nda ekonominin ilgin\u00e7 bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na rastl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bir s\u00fcredir ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, bunun dengeleri bozdu\u011fu\u00a0 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla so\u011futulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor. \u015eimdi siyasal nedenlerle artan belirsizli\u011fin, harcama\u00a0 k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131\u00a0 yaratarak, bu so\u011fuma i\u015flemine katk\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundan bu yana ekonomiyi y\u00f6netenlerin\u00a0 para politikas\u0131nda beklenmedik bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir boyutu\u00a0 faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layarak sermaye giri\u015fini cayd\u0131rmay\u0131 ve y\u00fckselecek olan d\u00f6viz kuru arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 daraltmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. \u0130kinci boyutta ise banka kredi hacmini daraltarak harcamalar\u0131 frenlemek ve b\u00f6ylece olas\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak yer al\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-773921739\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dikkat ederseniz,\u00a0 faiz oran\u0131 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde adeta sabitlenmi\u015f ve\u00a0 ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposunu kontrol arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ilmi\u015f gibi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu tercih bir s\u00fcredir israrl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Belki de baz\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar al\u0131nmak \u00fczere.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi ekonomi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan, siyasi alandan, belirsizlik ve risk \u00fcreten yeni bir de\u011fi\u015fken\u00a0 devreye girmi\u015f durumda. Artan belirsizlik ve y\u00fckselen risk sonu\u00e7ta faizi bask\u0131 alt\u0131na alaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re para politikas\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?\u00a0 Para politikas\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirirse ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi kayb\u0131 nas\u0131l telafi edilecek? \u0130vme kayb\u0131 derinle\u015firse ekonominin yeniden kriz ko\u015fullar\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne nas\u0131l ge\u00e7ilecek?<\/p>\n<p>Siyaseti kilitlemek kolay ama g\u00fcndem getirdi\u011fi sorular zor.<\/p>\n<h4>Prof. Dr. Taner BERKSOY<\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan gelen s\u00fcre\u00e7 biraz bulan\u0131k oldu. Yeni parlemento daha i\u015fe ba\u015flamadan gerilim y\u00fckl\u00fc bir hale geldi. Siyasetteki t\u0131kanma g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn devreye girmesi ile ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan\u00a0&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2154","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2154"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2154\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}