{"id":210,"date":"2011-05-10T21:27:16","date_gmt":"2011-05-10T18:27:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bilgeyatirimci.net\/?p=210"},"modified":"2011-06-04T19:50:30","modified_gmt":"2011-06-04T16:50:30","slug":"baskalarinin-gozunden-hizli-kredi-genislemesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/baskalarinin-gozunden-hizli-kredi-genislemesi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnden h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>F\u0131rt\u0131nal\u0131 g\u00fcnler i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye kontrollerini kategorik olarak reddetmemek gerekir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2098168292\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eu h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesine bir de ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zleriyle bakmakta yarar var. \u2018Ba\u015fkalar\u0131\u2019 olarak IMF\u2019yi alaca\u011f\u0131m ve bu kurumun Nisan 2011\u2019de yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc\u2019 raporuna ba\u015fvuraca\u011f\u0131m.<br \/>\n\u00d6nce raporun ikinci b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden bir al\u0131nt\u0131 yapay\u0131m: \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. \u00d6zel kesimin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebi ve canl\u0131 (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131) kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, h\u00e2l\u00e2 bu ko\u015fullara intibak eden makroekonomik politikalarla birle\u015fti\u011finde, ekonomik faaliyet d\u00fczeyini potansiyelinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u201d Burada, \u2018intibak eden makroekonomik politikalar\u2019la gidi\u015fat\u0131 frenlemek ya da tersine \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmamas\u0131 kastediliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>T\u00fcrkiye en \u00f6n s\u0131rada <\/strong><br \/>\n\u015eimdi raporun birinci b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne ge\u00e7iyorum. Burada y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomilerindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesine dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor. Kredi geni\u015flemesi s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye \u2018en h\u0131zl\u0131\u2019 grupta, paragraftan anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar\u0131yla ise en ba\u015fta yer al\u0131yor: \u201cBrezilya, Kolombiya, Hindistan, Endonezya ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de dikkat \u00e7ekici bir reel kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi s\u00fcreci ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi genel olarak y\u00fczde 10-20 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ya da ona yak\u0131n (T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise daha fazla). Son be\u015f y\u0131lda bu ekonomilerde ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na reel kredi miktar\u0131 neredeyse iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu t\u00fcr kredi geni\u015flemeleri, daha \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde sonunda kredi piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6zlenene benziyor\u201d.<br \/>\n\u00dcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc bir al\u0131nt\u0131. Bir not d\u00fc\u015fmekte yarar var: Al\u0131nt\u0131daki T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin paragraf i\u00e7indeki ifadeyi ben koymad\u0131m; metinde var. Al\u0131nt\u0131lara devam ediyorum. Bu sefer tekil \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik de\u011fil de bu t\u00fcr h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesinin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in bir uyar\u0131: \u201c\u00c7o\u011fu y\u00fckselen piyasa ekonomisindeki para politikalar\u0131 bu ko\u015fullara fazlas\u0131yla intibak etmi\u015f bi\u00e7imde. Bu \u00fclkelerden baz\u0131lar\u0131 politika faizlerini artt\u0131rd\u0131lar, baz\u0131lar\u0131 zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselttiler, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise do\u011frudan kredi geni\u015flemesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131lar. Ancak, bu \u00fclkelerin \u00e7o\u011funda reel faiz hadleri kriz \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeylerinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131ndalar\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Gev\u015fek maliye politikas\u0131 <\/strong><br \/>\nAyn\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmde bu \u00fclkelerde maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a gev\u015fek oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle ileride ABD\u2019nin politikalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu \u00fclkelerden ani sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n bu nedenle daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtiliyor. Maliye politikas\u0131nda gerekli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma sa\u011fland\u0131ktan, d\u00fczenleme ve denetim i\u00e7in gerekli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra ise k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye (d\u00f6viz) giri\u015flerini azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik sermaye kontrolleri getirilebilece\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor.<br \/>\nBu konuda bu k\u00f6\u015fede yer alan yaz\u0131lardan k\u0131sa bir \u00f6zetle bitireyim: Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7abalar\u0131 ancak zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fckseltilirse sonu\u00e7 verebilir. \u0130\u015fi buraya kadar g\u00f6t\u00fcrmeden Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu\u2019nun da devreye girmesi yararl\u0131 olur. T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n bir i\u015fe yaramas\u0131 i\u00e7in ise ilerideki olas\u0131 f\u0131rt\u0131nal\u0131 g\u00fcnler i\u00e7in maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rmak ve son olarak da k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye kontrollerini kategorik olarak reddetmemek gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>F\u0131rt\u0131nal\u0131 g\u00fcnler i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye kontrollerini kategorik olarak reddetmemek gerekir. \u015eu h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesine bir de ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zleriyle bakmakta yarar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}