{"id":2087,"date":"2011-06-28T09:42:27","date_gmt":"2011-06-28T06:42:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2087"},"modified":"2011-06-28T09:42:35","modified_gmt":"2011-06-28T06:42:35","slug":"doviz-kuru-gelismeleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/doviz-kuru-gelismeleri\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00f6viz Kuru Geli\u015fmeleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmeti beklerken iktisat politikas\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Son yaz\u0131mda d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iki temel tavr\u0131 tan\u0131mlad\u0131m. Birine \u201cs\u0131cak parac\u0131lar\u201d\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span><\/a> di\u011ferine \u201ckurcular\u201d ad\u0131n\u0131 verdim. Tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 izlemeyi kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3889145617\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ege Cansen usta yaz\u0131y\u0131 be\u011fenmi\u015f, iltifatlar\u0131 bana moral verdi. Sevgili Murat \u00dc\u00e7er ise \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc yol \u00f6neren \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yollad\u0131. Makul d\u00fczeyde d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>i\u00e7in<\/strong><\/span><\/a> yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekenleri s\u0131ral\u0131yor. Bence \u201cs\u0131cak parac\u0131\u201d cenahta kal\u0131yor. Bir yerde yay\u0131nlan\u0131rsa haber verece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc topland\u0131. Faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Ek miktar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 da getirmedi. Karar\u0131n metninden PPK\u2019n\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikadan memnun oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>Yeni<\/strong><\/span><\/a> d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir i\u015farettir.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile mali piyasalar\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 umutlar\u0131 bir darbe daha yedi. Yaz ba\u015f\u0131nda diyenler \u015fimdi sonbahara, hatta \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131la att\u0131lar. Yava\u015f yava\u015f mali piyasalar\u0131n ayaklar\u0131 yere basmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Sevindiricidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yeni politika ve d\u00f6viz kuru<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 yeni para politikas\u0131 bile\u015fiminin\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>ilk<\/strong><\/span><\/a> i\u015faretlerini ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonbahar\u0131nda vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ama fiili uygulamaya aral\u0131kta ge\u00e7ildi. Bir yandan faiz indirildi. Ayn\u0131 anda kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 idari \u00f6nlemler devreye sokuldu.<\/p>\n<p>Yeni politika bile\u015fimi ge\u00e7mi\u015fle ciddi bir kopu\u015fa tekab\u00fcl ediyordu. \u0130lk g\u00fcnden itibaren yo\u011fun tart\u0131\u015fma konusu oldu. \u00c7ok say\u0131da ele\u015ftiri geldi. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cpost-modern\u201d dendi. Kredi hacminin bu \u015fekilde denetlenemeyece\u011fi s\u00f6ylendi ve s\u00f6yleniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar biliniyor, girmeye gerek g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorum. Ele\u015ftirilere kat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 birka\u00e7 defa yazd\u0131m. \u0130ki neden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bir: Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve di\u011fer tedbirlerin etkisi i\u00e7in beklemek gerekiyor. \u0130ki: Esas bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken kredi hacmi de\u011fil d\u00f6viz kurudur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1983069532\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son hususu \u00f6zellikle vurgulamak istiyorum. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta somutla\u015fan makro dengesizli\u011fin d\u00fczeltilmesinde TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesinin kritik rol\u00fc \u00fczerine son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok duruyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc intizaml\u0131 d\u00fczeltmenin \u00f6n ko\u015fulunu olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile yeni politikan\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131 kriteri kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fildir. TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130hracat\u0131 te\u015fvik ederken ithalat\u0131 cezaland\u0131r\u0131r. Ancak, daha \u00f6nemlisi i\u00e7 talebi daraltmas\u0131d\u0131r. Yani\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>kur<\/strong><\/span><\/a>hareketi kredi talebini k\u0131sman\u0131n da etkili bir y\u00f6ntemidir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yeni politikan\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131nda dolar-euro paritesinde dalgalanma \u00e7ok artt\u0131. O nedenle dolar ya da euro kuruna bakmak anlams\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131. Yerine yar\u0131m dolar art\u0131 yar\u0131m euro\u2019dan olu\u015fan d\u00f6viz sepeti kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2852270707\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son bir y\u0131l i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck bazda d\u00f6viz sepetinin TL kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer al\u0131yor. Haziran sonunda sepet 1.75 TL civar\u0131nda iken 11 Kas\u0131m 2010\u2019da 1.68 TL ile dibe vuruyor. Sonra y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi ba\u015fl\u0131yor. D\u00fcn sepet 1.99 TL\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Dip noktas\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ral\u0131m. Yedi bu\u00e7uk ayda TL\u2019nin d\u00f6viz sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 18,3 de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yetersiz; ama iyi bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7t\u0131r. \u00dcstelik yumu\u015fak \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Yeni para politikas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Devam\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Asaf \u00a0Sava\u015f AKAT<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmeti beklerken iktisat politikas\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Son yaz\u0131mda d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iki temel tavr\u0131 tan\u0131mlad\u0131m. Birine \u201cs\u0131cak parac\u0131lar\u201d\u00a0ve di\u011ferine \u201ckurcular\u201d ad\u0131n\u0131 verdim. Tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2087\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}