{"id":2076,"date":"2011-06-28T09:37:57","date_gmt":"2011-06-28T06:37:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=2076"},"modified":"2011-06-28T09:38:07","modified_gmt":"2011-06-28T06:38:07","slug":"buyume-oranini-beklerken","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyume-oranini-beklerken\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme Oran\u0131n\u0131 Beklerken"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10&#8217;dan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n benim i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebilirim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-11554089\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><span>Haziran sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na bak\u0131nca imalat sanayii kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015fa devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Sanayideki \u00fcretimi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tahmin etmekte kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n ne oldu\u011funu k\u0131saca a\u00e7\u0131klayay\u0131m. Her bir \u00fcretim biriminin teknoloji, emek ve girdilerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u00fcretim kapasitesi vard\u0131r. Diyelim kuma\u015f \u00fcreten bir dokuma tez<\/span><span>g\u00e2h\u0131, enerji kesintisi, grev, lokavt gibi herhangi bir nedenle \u00fcretim duru\u015fuyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmaks\u0131z\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda saatte 5 metre kuma\u015f \u00fcretmektedir. G\u00fcnde 8 saat, ayda da 40 saat \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarsak ayl\u0131k \u00fcretimi 200 metre kuma\u015f eder. Bu, o tezg\u00e2h\u0131n tam kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 halinde elde edilecek \u00fcretim miktar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Hi\u00e7bir sanayi kurulu\u015fu ya da hi\u00e7bir \u00fcretim birimi s\u00fcrekli olarak bu kadar m\u00fckemmel \u00e7al\u0131\u015famaz. Elektrik kesintisi, makinenin dinlendirilmesi, onar\u0131m ve bak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131, grev vb. gibi nedenlerle tam kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir kapasiteyle \u00fcretim yap\u0131l\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fimizdeki tezg\u00e2h\u0131n belirli bir ayda 160 saat<br \/>\n\u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarsak o ay i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 80 kapasite ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. Bir fabrikadaki b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcretim birimlerinin ayl\u0131k kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131, o fabrikan\u0131n, bir sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131 o sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ve sanayinin t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 da \u00fclkenin ayl\u0131k kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131 verir. Bizde \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm imalat sanayii ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olarak yap\u0131lsa da toplam sanayinin d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc olarak kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kriz \u00f6ncesi duruma d\u00f6nd\u00fck <\/strong><br \/>\nYukar\u0131da \u00f6rnek verdi\u011fimiz tezg\u00e2h\u0131n bir y\u0131l y\u00fczde 60 kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p 1440 metre kuma\u015f \u00fcretirken bir sonraki y\u0131l y\u00fczde 80 kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p 1920 metre kuma\u015f \u00fcretti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek bu tezg\u00e2h\u0131n \u00fcretiminde \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re, yeni bir yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n, y\u00fczde 33,3 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rebiliriz. Demek ki \u00fclke genelinde kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 artarsa \u00fcretim ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcme de art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130lk \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin <\/strong><br \/>\nkapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 73,6\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ayn\u0131 oran y\u00fczde 67,9 idi. Kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131na y\u0131ll\u0131k olarak bakarsak 2008\u2019de y\u00fczde 76,7; 2009\u2019da y\u00fczde 65,2; 2010\u2019da y\u00fczde 72,6 ve 2011\u2019in ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 74,6\u2019l\u0131k oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel krizin etkisiyle kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda toparlanma ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 kriz \u00f6ncesi duruma geri d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00d6teki g\u00f6stergeler <\/strong><br \/>\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 konusunda dikkate almam\u0131z gereken \u00f6teki g\u00f6stergelere de bir bakal\u0131m. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte<br \/>\nsanayi \u00fcretimi ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 14,4 oran\u0131nda, sanayi ciro ve sipari\u015fleri endeksleri de y\u00fczde 30 dolay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f sergilemi\u015f bulunuyor. \u0130thalat ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cari a\u00e7\u0131k da bu gidi\u015fi destekliyor.<br \/>\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 9.5 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k s\u00f6z konusuyken bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 22 milyar dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k var. Bu da bize b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Kredi stokundaki art\u0131\u015f ilk 6 ayda y\u00fczde 17 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lsonu itibariyle her 100 TL\u2019lik mevduat\u0131n 80 TL\u2019lik b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc krediye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrken bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda her 100 TL\u2019lik mevduat\u0131n 91 TL\u2019si krediye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f bulunuyor.<br \/>\nPer\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Yukar\u0131da s\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131m g\u00f6stergelerin<br \/>\nyan\u0131na tar\u0131m \u00fcretimini, ticaretin di\u011fer alanlar\u0131n\u0131 ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc de koymak gerek ku\u015fkusuz. Ama bu kadar\u0131na bakarak bile ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019dan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n benim i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebilirim.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span>Mahfi E\u011e\u0130LMEZ<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10&#8217;dan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n benim i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebilirim. Haziran sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na bak\u0131nca imalat sanayii kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015fa devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2076\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}